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thanks..week to week means little and that's why I don't want to keep tabs..the back n forth on the races we choose is a good thing and once or twice a week is reasonable..obviously sometimes we won't do it at all. touch base later in the week..friday belmont opener and saturday churchill opener so some nice racing aheadComment -
don't push it.. if you can't do it any particular week or weeks no big deal..i was thinking of a good format for derby day.. how about the derby obviously an automatic race.. then we get to pick one more from the churchill card and a 3rd either from the churchill card or somewhere else.. so it'd be 3 for the day.. let me know what you thinkComment -
think someone should make a kentucky derby day round table discussion for wagering strategy for several wagers on the entire card including not limited to pk4,5,6 , supers, high 5 etcComment -
JBEX, I can do Friday if you have time. Looks like I may have to work this weekend. So if you can't, then we will skip this week.Comment -
I will be looking at Keenland for tomorrow, haven’t decided on a race yet, but most likely a turf raceComment -
Your choice JBexComment -
mrgnt ..would you rather that I didn't pick maiden races? if you don't like to cap them i'll stay away..maybe i'll choose one each week on my own that only I pick and a non-maiden as my race of the week that you cap alsoComment -
Actually I don't mind maiden races, sometimes that's where I find value in a race. So to me, no restrictions. Whatever race you like is fine with me. The only thing that I hate is wet or sloppy track, especially when I spend all night looking at the form then the next day, they are scratch. Cap away JBEX, let's have some fun with this.Comment -
My race for the week will be Race 7 @ Keenland, 1 1/8 mile on the turf, allowance race.
My pick will be 7- Morning Strike (ML 8-1). He is trained by Joe Sharp, one of the better turf trainers that I like. His last race off of a layoff wasn't bad, he went 4-6 wide turns and went down the stretch willingly. He has an advantage post cuz the horse inside of him is a closer the post 4 and 5 are more of front runner sort. So I predict that he will be midpack and outside and without losing ground to get in position. With a race under his belt, he should be sharp. And I like Tiznow as a grand sire for turf and Victory Gallop for distance. He is listed at 8-1, but will probably be bet down. Morning line favorite is the 3- Sniper Kitten (ML 3-1) and co-favorite 4- Take That for Data (ML 4-1), both of these are newly graduates. And I don't like horses that just broke maiden unless I see something special. Otherwise, they are almost an automatic toss for the win. I think the 2- Sky Promise (ML 5-1) will be heavily bet down, probably to 9-5. The reason being he is the class of the field; he has competed in grade companies and did ok. However, if you look at his turf form, it doesn't scare anyone. And I don't care about Sky Mesa as a turf sire, I think he is more of dirt horse. For my money, I will be on the 7 and hope that I get a descent price on him. But if he doesn't get bet then that would worry me and I might need to rethink.....
GL all.Comment -
mrgnt's race
kee R7 #1 king of candy (10-1)
I like your choice in here..think his last was a good primer..he had a wide trip as you said and could see improvement 2nd off the layoff.. ..also won at 2 turns on the turf as a young 2yo at ellis park which to me is a positive also..taking the 4-take that data too obvious for me with the trainer 13-26 @ the meet and his hit rate with maidens off a win 146 sts/31%
..really incredible..ml favorite sniper kitten will offer no value
as far as my choice always like horses who cost a lot relative to there pedigree..the win at the fairgrounds 2 back was done on the front end with a fair pace according to brisnet figures..last race an even race mid pack with a different jock but gets saez back today who rode him for the win..think he'll offer value today
jbex race
keeneland
R10 #5 nantucket (7-2)
really didn't see many things I liked today..this guy is by the japanese sire "stay gold" and also is bred in japan..a son of sunday silence who was the all time greatest sire over there and one of the best worldwide when he was active..average winning distance of this sire is 9.5 furlongs..the longest awd in this country I believe is a p indy at around 8.2f..a good sire production index (progeny earnings vs average earnings)is usually 3-4 and this one's is 185.48 !! never seen anything like that and of course has to do with the high purses over there but still damn..he cost $259k at auction in japan as a weanling in july..talk about buying early wow !! he missed by a length in his last race at tampa at 8.5f on the turf..between the pedigree and extra furlong he gets here should be set up nicely...geroux gets the mount and he's been red hot of late...33-10-2-2 the past weekLast edited by JBEX; 04-27-18, 09:26 AM.Comment -
probably be the last race at keeneland for me.. belmont probably a washout...will have it posted before noonComment -
Like the pick there JBEX, the show horse from the last race came back to win on his next race. And he is not far from him when came in 7th. This is always a plus for me. Great pick. I’m gonna do an Exacta box, 1 & 7, WP on yours and mine too. Should be a good payout!!
Also, both yours and mine along with the 8- Soul Beam all exited the same last race. The 7 was actually the longer shot last out @ 33-1. I always include horses that exit the same key race regardless of their odds if they ran similar. I would have picked the 8 originally cuz Ortiz is a much better jockey than Beschizza imo. But I don’t like Dallas Steward as a turf horse trainer. Hence it’s why I chose the 7. Both the 7 and 8 are at ML 8-1.Last edited by mrginandtonic; 04-27-18, 08:58 AM.Comment -
JBEX, when you get a chance, can you look at Keenland race 5 also. Want your opinion on this race. TksComment -
thanks mrgnt..your writeup solid also..I added my pick above and will look at kee R5Comment -
kee R5
I would go with 1-sippin kitten..1st race at CD in november she was very wide and running on a yielding turf..perfectly ok debut for me..last she got 2nd here at kee..kitten's joy on top and the dam has 3 stakes winners and 6 overall winners from 7 to race and all have won on turf..the inside and close to the pace has been favorable here which should help her alsoComment -
I don't know what to make of the 5- Nantucket. From what you said, he seems reasonable. My reservation for this horse to graduate is the trainer low % win on turf races and he might be out class since he is from TAM's MSW for 20k. The logical choice is the 3- CC Rider, his last Beyer is 80 which is good enough to graduate at this level. I would assume the new rider will use the same tactics which is to go the front and set a slow pace and hope to wire the field. The 5 and the 6 are similar in which they both have tactical speed with the 6 more upfront. I expect the pace will be set by the 3 with the 6 close behind and the 5 behind that. So I think the winner will be one of these three. My pick will the the 6- Say the Word (ML 3-1) because this will be his 2nd off layoff, sprint to route and trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Ortiz. His last Beyer was 76 which is the closest to the favorite. With an improvement, he should have a say in the outcome. Not much value in this race, need to watch the tote board. GL JBEX.Comment -
I understand what you're saying about tampa being an inferior track but I doubt the owners care about the extra purse money..they are loaded and probably are more interested in getting the horse running in good form..the sire's progeny include a japanese triple crown winner who also finished 2nd in the arc de triomphe and an additional horse who also finished 2nd in the arc..probably explains why he cost $260k..the trainer's turf record doesn't bother me as he was an assistant to bill mott I believe, and very early in his career..if he's got a talented horses sure he's capable of getting or keeping him going. .gl on your horses
on a separate note I don't consider those GP 7.5f turf races sprints..they really are just short 2 turn routesLast edited by JBEX; 04-27-18, 12:18 PM.Comment -
JBEX, I’m rooting hard for your 5-Nantucket to come in cuz it pays a lot more than my 6-Say the Word. I have same amount on the double but 5 pays almost double. The more I look, the more I like your 5!!Comment -
churchill opener is a night card and weather supposed to be good there tomorrow.. if you want to do it let me know..not pressuring but letting you know I'm game..Comment -
Have to work tomorrow so I probably only have time to post some random plays. I have the form for tmr at Santa Anita, so if you want we can choose from Santa Anita. I know I said that you can choose whatever track before, but this time I just don’t have the time to look at other tracks. Let me what you decide.Comment
