jbex and mrginandtonic. .1 play/week each

[JBEX]

we each get to pick 1 race of our choice and will handicap both of the races..I will let mrginandtonic initiate every time as he is unable to play as often as i am..this is not a competition but a chance to pick a race we each like and give an opinion on the other's as well

mrginandtonic will try if possible to post the race the night before to give me time to choose a race also and handicap his..will see how it goes and if for any reason I can't participate you will have his opinion on the race..will try to provide a little insight into why we like the horses but it's not required of course..anybody is welcome to make a pick on either or both races and share the reason why you like a particular horse

gL mrginandtonic and anybody else who decides to participate..should be a lot of fun

[JBEX]

I will pick a race from the saturday oaklawn card and post it friday..i know you said in your thread you're doing the big race so i'll do another..believe the weather supposed to be good there saturday

[mrginandtonic]

For my first pick in this thread, I will choose the Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Should have some kind of write up by tomorrow night.

[mrginandtonic]

JBEX, since it is one race a week, does that mean that we can choose different days? Let say that I choose a race for Saturday and you pick one from Sunday. Is that still ok?? Or you want to stick to the same day for my convenience since I don't play as much as you do. I am ok with either.

Also, are we being graded or solely a discussion thread?

[JBEX]

JBEX, since it is one race a week, does that mean that we can choose different days? Let say that I choose a race for Saturday and you pick one from Sunday. Is that still ok?? Or you want to stick to the same day for my convenience since I don't play as much as you do. I am ok with either.

Also, are we being graded or solely a discussion thread?

I think same day the best idea to start..makes it easier on you..I think the day before aspect is important in doing this so I can pick and choose which race I want (for example early east coast) if you can't do it any particular week I understand ..nbd


i'd rather just record results week to week and not keep a tally..I believe an accurate evaluation of performance would require 100's of races conservatively and proves little in the short term..I wanted to do this to get away from that..reasons are more important to me

[JBEX]

I will have my picks up tonight mrgnt..I will be on the northern spur stakes and of course your race

[JBEX]

R11 arkansas derby

#2 machismo (20-1)

if he goes (ran in the bluegrass last week) find him to be interesting...broke from the 12 post last week and got within 3 lengths at the 6 furlong mark before tailing off to finish 12th of 14 ..I can see him not being zapped from this ..really like all his races prior..big leaps speed figure wise in each of his first 4 starts..I think the even run in the fountain of youth while posting a very solid figure not
a bad try first time going two turns..beating the big boys (5,6) might be tough but could see him coming in underneath at a big price
___________________
my race..

R8 northern spur stakes

#5 ike (4-1)

..think the even run behind thursday's bachelor stakes winner mitoli sets him up nice to stretchout..baffert big numbers
in two applicable categories here

non graded stakes 36/100
sprint sprint route 16/37 (43%)

I would have 3x as much on him than machismo factoring in the odds

[mrginandtonic]

For our first race, I am going to pick the feature race of the week, The Arkansas Derby.

Race 11: Arkansas Derby (1 mile 1/8 Dirt)



5- Magnum Moon looks really tough, he has tactical speed and has the highest and most consistent Beyer figures. I think it may be foolish to try to beat him; but I’m gonna try anyways. I think the pace of this race will determine the determining factor of this race. There are several horses that might go to the lead. Looks to me Magnum Moon and Solomini will have company much of the way. For 1 1/8 mile , the 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 all have similar running style. So I’m not sure how these two favorites gonna do being pressed in the front and maybe going wide. I like two horse from Asmussen that come from behind. I’m gonna take the 4- Dream Baby Dream (ML 15-1) over the 9- Combatant (even though I picked him to win The Rebel). Magnum Moon maybe just too talented, but with his odds, I’m gonna pass. As for 5-Solomini (ML 2-1), he actually has an upside to this race because he is more midpack and this will be second off layoff and he is by Curlin (Smart Strike) and Surf Song (Storm Bird) and trained by Baffert. So his odds will probably be too low also. But if his odd is around 3-1, I might put a few $ on him too.




JBEX race of the week:


Race 8- The Northern Spur ( 1 mile 1/16 Dirt)



My pick for this race is the 3- Higher Power (ML 8-1). He lost all chances last out when shuffled back in the start. I think he needs to be up closer, with a cleaner start and stalking the 1, 4, 5, he should be able to make a run at them turning for home. Trainer Von Hemel has good numbers with 2 off 45-180 days @ 21%.



I might also put a few $ on the 7- Ego Trip. I don’t usually bet on horses that just broke maiden, but this horse costs $600k and he is out of Bernardini (A.P. Indy) and With Sugar on Top (Unbridled’s Song). He also has a stalking trip style. He should be sitting just behind the 3, and if he is any good, he should be rolling late. He is also 8-1 for the ML. Santana is riding the favorite which is understandable, his replacement, Saez is just as good if not better.

[JBEX]

nice write up mrgnt.. I think mm and sol can do whatever they want tactically and the fact that mm positioned outside of the latter is a big edge for him.. but as you said they'll be underlays for sure..


if I had to choose another in the northern spur it'd be ego trip.. lot of money to pay for that horse (600k) especially when the dam's only a winner (not stakes) and this is her first foal to race.. even factoring bernardini an 85k stallion fee.. put up a good figure on the brisnets last out and closed into a very slow pace (by pace figures) and think it'll be more honest up front today.. a listed stakes a perfect spot for this type of horse

good luck today

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks JBex. Between MM and Solo, I would take Solo over MM, I really think 2nd off of the layoff for Solo will make him a lot better. MM had a great trip last time in the Rebel. But I don’t think this time will be as easy. As for your horse, Machismo, I would be surprised if he can do better than 4th. I don’t like horse that coming back so soon from one big race to another. Trainer and jockey is nothing to praise about. I’m thinking they want him to go to the lead and go as far as he can, but he will have plenty of company.

As for Ike, I can’t argue with that. All the points that you said make him a contender for sure. The only thing that I might want to bet against him is that it’s not usually Baffert’s style to bring in a horse in a stake race and to stretch him out for the first time. Not really sure how he would run. He may or may not win, I think Baffert just want to see how he compares. That’s just my opinion. The favorite is probably gonna win in this race, but looking at the form today, Santana has so many live mounts........

GL to you as well, just hope there isn’t too many favorites today. Lol

[TonyP]

R8 northern spur stakes
why is ike in the race? Asmussen has 2 entered I like the 7 best of those 2 though dont like horses facing winners for first time. Im not betting race however would would bet the 8

Race 11: Arkansas Derby

bafferts #5 will be tough to beat, he beat bafferts mckinzie 2 back in the longest stretch in america, lost last out off a layoff that might have been a prep for this by foe in this race he will turn the tables today.

[mrginandtonic]

R8 northern spur stakes
why is ike in the race? Asmussen has 2 entered I like the 7 best of those 2 though dont like horses facing winners for first time. Im not betting race however would would bet the 8

Race 11: Arkansas Derby

bafferts #5 will be tough to beat, he beat bafferts mckinzie 2 back in the longest stretch in america, lost last out off a layoff that might have been a prep for this by foe in this race he will turn the tables today.

First of all, thanks for your input. Like I said before, would like as many people as possible.

Why do you like the 8 in the Nortern Spur?

I agree, the more I look at it, the more I like Solomini.

[TonyP]

First of all, thanks for your input. Like I said before, would like as many people as possible.

Why do you like the 8 in the Nortern Spur?

I agree, the more I look at it, the more I like Solomini.

west coast horses have been solid the lat few years and believe hess wouldnt ship to run 7 days after last race if horse wasnt ready .

mm looks solid though tough to seperate the 2 Im passing wagering at oaklawn today.

[mrginandtonic]

west coast horses have been solid the lat few years and believe hess wouldnt ship to run 7 days after last race if horse wasnt ready .

mm looks solid though tough to seperate the 2 Im passing wagering at oaklawn today.

Ok, I can see that. But his main man, Desormeaux is riding My Boy Jack at Keenland......

[mrginandtonic]

R11 arkansas derby

#2 machismo (20-1)

if he goes (ran in the bluegrass last week) find him to be interesting...broke from the 12 post last week and got within 3 lengths at the 6 furlong mark before tailing off to finish 12th of 14 ..I can see him not being zapped from this ..really like all his races prior..big leaps speed figure wise in each of his first 4 starts..I think the even run in the fountain of youth while posting a very solid figure not
a bad try first time going two turns..beating the big boys (5,6) might be tough but could see him coming in underneath at a big price
___________________
my race..

R8 northern spur stakes

#5 ike (4-1)

..think the even run behind thursday's bachelor stakes winner mitoli sets him up nice to stretchout..baffert big numbers
in two applicable categories here

non graded stakes 36/100
sprint sprint route 16/37 (43%)

I would have 3x as much on him than machismo factoring in the odds

Good call on Ike, JBEX

[batt33]

good grief got side tracked... looked at what you 2 had... saw northern spur...confused high north... in my haste did this ( was a couple of adult beverages involved...plus forgot time... guilty) so...... moving along.... nothing to see here..

Ticket#: Apr 14 05:34 PM

Apr 14 05:34:51 PM

RAC

Racing ticket Apr-14 OAK R8 1.00 SBR PK4 1,5,6/4/10,11/5,6,8

18.00 / 0.00

Ticket Apr 14 05:35 PM

Apr 14 05:35:29 PM

RAC

Racing ticket Apr-14 OAK R8 1.00 SBR PK3 1,6/4,6/10,11

8.00 / 0.00

apologize for posting here..... alcohol involved and watching hockey...

[batt33]

good grief got side tracked... looked at what you 2 had... saw northern spur...confused high north... in my haste did this ( was a couple of adult beverages involved...plus forgot time... guilty) so...... moving along.... nothing to see here..

Ticket#: Apr 14 05:34 PM

Apr 14 05:34:51 PM

RAC

Racing ticket Apr-14 OAK R8 1.00 SBR PK4 1,5,6/4/10,11/5,6,8

18.00 / 0.00

Ticket Apr 14 05:35 PM

Apr 14 05:35:29 PM

RAC

Racing ticket Apr-14 OAK R8 1.00 SBR PK3 1,6/4,6/10,11

8.00 / 0.00

apologize for posting here..... alcohol involved and watching hockey...

74,60 for the p-3... heck ya

[mrginandtonic]

74,60 for the p-3... heck ya

Nicely done!!

[batt33]

Nicely done!!

ty, Nice to hit one!

[batt33]

and the p-4!! 174.00 wow thank you very much! los al tonight...maybe..

[JBEX]

Good call on Ike, JBEX

2nd @ 7-2..ehh gotta win at those odds but I appreciate the positive sentiment..arkansas derby a dud for all of us but not the greatest betting race to begin with..

think this is a good format going forward..if you were able to get used to the brisnet's we could debate more races but for now let's keep it where we try to agree on doing it the day before and max it at once a week..any ideas run them by me

[TonyP]

we use to be able to upload pdf , can we still upload pdf? If so how?

[JBEX]

we use to be able to upload pdf , can we still upload pdf? If so how?

I have only downloaded pdf's from them

[mrginandtonic]

For our first race, I am going to pick the feature race of the week, The Arkansas Derby.

Race 11: Arkansas Derby (1 mile 1/8 Dirt)



5- Magnum Moon looks really tough, he has tactical speed and has the highest and most consistent Beyer figures. I think it may be foolish to try to beat him; but I’m gonna try anyways. I think the pace of this race will determine the determining factor of this race. There are several horses that might go to the lead. Looks to me Magnum Moon and Solomini will have company much of the way. For 1 1/8 mile , the 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 all have similar running style. So I’m not sure how these two favorites gonna do being pressed in the front and maybe going wide. I like two horse from Asmussen that come from behind. I’m gonna take the 4- Dream Baby Dream (ML 15-1) over the 9- Combatant (even though I picked him to win The Rebel). Magnum Moon maybe just too talented, but with his odds, I’m gonna pass. As for 5-Solomini (ML 2-1), he actually has an upside to this race because he is more midpack and this will be second off layoff and he is by Curlin (Smart Strike) and Surf Song (Storm Bird) and trained by Baffert. So his odds will probably be too low also. But if his odd is around 3-1, I might put a few $ on him too.




JBEX race of the week:


Race 8- The Northern Spur ( 1 mile 1/16 Dirt)



My pick for this race is the 3- Higher Power (ML 8-1). He lost all chances last out when shuffled back in the start. I think he needs to be up closer, with a cleaner start and stalking the 1, 4, 5, he should be able to make a run at them turning for home. Trainer Von Hemel has good numbers with 2 off 45-180 days @ 21%.



I might also put a few $ on the 7- Ego Trip. I don’t usually bet on horses that just broke maiden, but this horse costs $600k and he is out of Bernardini (A.P. Indy) and With Sugar on Top (Unbridled’s Song). He also has a stalking trip style. He should be sitting just behind the 3, and if he is any good, he should be rolling late. He is also 8-1 for the ML. Santana is riding the favorite which is understandable, his replacement, Saez is just as good if not better.

Not the way I want to start, but it is what it is. Hopefully, I can do better next time. Till next week, have fun at the tracks.

[mrginandtonic]

JBEX, for our next race, I will pick a race Keenland this Saturday 4/28. I don't which race yet. You can stay with Keenland or whichever track you want to do. Is this OK with you?

[JBEX]

JBEX, for our next race, I will pick a race Keenland this Saturday 4/28. I don't which race yet. You can stay with Keenland or whichever track you want to do. Is this OK with you?

that's fine mrgnt

[TonyP]

I have only downloaded pdf's from them

was referring to uploading pdf on here.

[JBEX]

saturday..

aqueduct

R6 #4 spa shakalacka (5-1)

the running line in his debut back in september translates well to a 2 turn mcl route..I like the gradual fade vs better.should be fit enough with the works..engelhart
franco jt combo 5/16 last 60 days

remember we can pick the same horse if we both like him

[mrginandtonic]

Week 2: Race of the Week

Keenland Race 6- MSW 1 mile Turf

First glance, the 3- Love Sick Kitten (ML 6-5) is the favorite and rightfully so. His numbers are simply much better than the rest. But his odds are not worth for me to make a WP wager. So for my wager, I am going to take the 9- Heza Kitten (ML 8-1). I like him for a few reasons. His two debut races are not that bad. First race, he was off slow then steady. His second race, he hopped at the start, made a bit to the lead. He was only 1/2 length at the mile point, considering his poor start, he made up a lot of ground. Both races came up in good and yielding turf. Trainer Wesley Ward has pretty good numbers with layoffs, turf, route and MSW. I think he will have him ready. Will he be good enough remains to be seen. Both the favorite and my pick are out of Kitten’s Joy. Also, Ward is having a much better meet than Michael Maker. If the 3 gets trapped inside, the 8 with his closing kick should make that run turning for home.

My play for this race

$20WP 9- Heza Kitten
$5 Ex 9/2, 3

Total wager: $50

[mrginandtonic]

saturday..

aqueduct

R6 #4 spa shakalacka (5-1)

the running line in his debut back in september translates well to a 2 turn mcl route..I like the gradual fade vs better.should be fit enough with the works..engelhart
franco jt combo 5/16 last 60 days

remember we can pick the same horse if we both like him

AQU Race 6 is a 1 turn 6f turf sprint, isn’t it?

[JBEX]

saturday..

aqueduct

R6 #4 spa shakalacka (5-1)

the running line in his debut back in september translates well to a 2 turn mcl route..I like the gradual fade vs better.should be fit enough with the works..engelhart
franco jt combo 5/16 last 60 days

remember we can pick the same horse if we both like him

going to downgrade this to a regular play and not a play of the week..still like it as race he exited in debut was 3-4 lengths faster than par but not a route..sorry i do get careless on here on occasion

[JBEX]

AQU Race 6 is a 1 turn 6f turf sprint, isn’t it?

sorry corrected above..i'll look for another and try to make it 3pm eastern or later..of course will do yours

[JBEX]

mrgnt's race

kee R6

#4 burnin daylight (12-1)

excellent try first out on the turf in his 2nd career start 2 back including being close to a very fast pace ..looks like he had a tough trip last out..gets solid turf jock geroux
and some nice works since

my race

kee R10

#5 eisenstaedt (6-1)

even run positionally vs horse who might be the best 3yo sprinter in the division i his debut..gets santana to ride and he's 8/21 for this trainer averaging a buck profit for every 2 bet..workouts approaching his debut last start were very fast and have a feeling this guy can run

[mrginandtonic]

mrgnt's race

kee R6

#4 burnin daylight (12-1)

excellent try first out on the turf in his 2nd career start 2 back including being close to a very fast pace ..looks like he had a tough trip last out..gets solid turf jock geroux
and some nice works since

my race

kee R10

#5 eisenstaedt (6-1)

even run positionally vs horse who might be the best 3yo sprinter in the division i his debut..gets santana to ride and he's 8/21 for this trainer averaging a buck profit for every 2 bet..workouts approaching his debut last start were very fast and have a feeling this guy can run

Excellent choice on the 4- Burning Daylight, this race is really a hard race to cap. If the favorite has any kind of trouble trip, this race is wide open. The 2- Nobrag Justfact and the 4- Burning Daylight ran against each other the last three races, the 2 has improved in each of the last three races while the 4 has a trouble trip the last time out. Between the two, I would also pick the 4 for better odds and he definitely has every right to improve with a better start. The only question that I have is how much do they really like turf? I think regardless of outcome today, they should be a good watch when move to dirt.

JBEX’s race

For MSW, nothing jumps out to me. So I’m gonna pick a first starter. 7- King of the Court is out of Speightown (Gone West) and Divine Escapade (AP Indy), $100k stud fee and Speightown has a 17% debut winner. Trainer has a decent record in 1st start and MSW.

My take on your pick, 5- Eisenstaedt, with his pedigree I would rather see him stretch out especially seeing how he ran last time. I see so many horses ran like that and when stretch out, he would be closer to the front, tracking a front runner then pound it turning for home.

That’s how I see these two races. GL today.

[JBEX]

Excellent choice on the 4- Burning Daylight, this race is really a hard race to cap. If the favorite has any kind of trouble trip, this race is wide open. The 2- Nobrag Justfact and the 4- Burning Daylight ran against each other the last three races, the 2 has improved in each of the last three races while the 4 has a trouble trip the last time out. Between the two, I would also pick the 4 for better odds and he definitely has every right to improve with a better start. The only question that I have is how much do they really like turf? I think regardless of outcome today, they should be a good watch when move to dirt.

JBEX’s race

For MSW, nothing jumps out to me. So I’m gonna pick a first starter. 7- King of the Court is out of Speightown (Gone West) and Divine Escapade (AP Indy), $100k stud fee and Speightown has a 17% debut winner. Trainer has a decent record in 1st start and MSW.

My take on your pick, 5- Eisenstaedt, with his pedigree I would rather see him stretch out especially seeing how he ran last time. I see so many horses ran like that and when stretch out, he would be closer to the front, tracking a front runner then pound it turning for home.

That’s how I see these two races. GL today.

to me once they run at least a halfway decent race on the sod I assume they don't mind it... your's made a big run to get within a length at the eighth pole which at 9f is the mile mark and that's today's distance.. things I don't like are according to brisnet pace figures that race was 9 lengths fast to the pace call which of course is a big edge for a closer.. also jock a poor turf rider @ 5/97

my race I can understand the stretch out but if it's only the debut "even" in a fast race enough for me. .dam sire is northern afleet who is a sprint sire . she's stakes-placed but this one cost only 25k so that means little to me.. your's would be my other one and was thinking of making it my play.. I think will go off lower than ml (4-1)and if he doesn't probably not a good sign

good luck to you also