Singgooner’s Crackers – Holy C – what a busy Saturday !

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 12:11 PM

OK, final list of horses that I am going to drill down on in time order.

Laurel Race 1 - 4 TODAY'S MAN - 2ptsTurfway Park Race 4 - 3 BRIDGE LOAN - 2pts

Turfway Park 6 - 3 CHAPEL DANCER - 2pts
Hawthorne Race 8 - 5 BATTLE FACTS - 1pt
Charles Town Race 2 – 8 RAVENS TERMS - 3pts
Mountaineer Race 10 - 5 D'WILDBILL - 3pts

Although for my stats - they will all be level stakes i.e. all US$200 bet

If you want some idea of the strengths of the horses then I'll rate 1 to 3 -1 for a good bet - 3 for get your nads out and bet like men !

Ok, Laurel Race 1 goes in 20 mins - so will sacrifice that race and hope it wins and will do the drill down in time order - so 1st one will be Turfway Park Race 4.

Happy punting lads - get your nads out and bet like men today ! LOL !

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 12:39 PM

Laurel Race 1 - Today's Man blew out there - went 3 wide all the way round and the winner railed around the home turn and picked off Today's Man and the other horse who already cut their throats after a duel !

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 12:53 PM

TURFWAY PARK – RACE 4 – 3 BRIDGE LOAN

Late 2012, Bridge Loan was racing in Allowance Optional Claimer company.

Then popped up at Turfway on 5th Jan 2013 in an interesting race – AOC over 1m 110yds – today’s distance. In the race, kept at the back of the main field and was going comfortable until having to go 6 wide with 4f to go. Bridge Loan used up too much energy just to keep on the tails of the leaders and having to go 6 wide – it was never going to challenge and the jockey put his hands down with 2f to go. But, that race was a higher grade than today.

Then on 14th Feb – went to Charles Town over same trip and it was reported the horse bled – so never had a chance again.

Came back on 6th July over 1 mile at Ellis Park and again – 1st time back – you could not think the horse could do much – even though it was dropped down in Claimer company.

Now this is where it gets interesting – drops down to 6f at Indiana Downs on 6th Sept. From the start, Bridge Loan missed the break and was in another time zone with 4 to go. At the top of the stretch, after a good run around the turn – Bridge Loan was coming fast and picked up the rest of the field and although it states finished 3rd – nearly grabbed 2nd on the line over an inadequate distance.

Then at Indiana on 23rd Sept – enters a 1m70y Claimer. Brakes well – hits the lead at the top of the stretch – but after having to go 5 wide down the back straight and around the home turn – just didn’t have enough fitness to close out the race. After dueling with the other 2 race leaders down the home straight – they cut each other throats and the 2 pacers came past them to fight the finish.

The previous race, we have seen a nice progression, a run to get rid of the cobwebs over 6f, then hitting the frame after a wide run over 1m70y and travels onto Turfway Park on 1st December for a 1 mile claimer. Jockey let the early speed go ahead of him. With 4 to go, the horse did it the hard way coming 4 wide, but still had to guts to hook up for a duel with the leader and nutted him within 10 yards of the line.

So, we know 1m110y is a good distance for Bridge Loan. Raced 8 times – won at this distance once and been in the money 4 times. Also, recorded the best last speed figure in the field and its run over C&D on 5th Jan 2013 – was better than its last run and now attempts the C&D again for the 1st time since 5th Jan !

Has the tactical speed to tuck in behind the early pace and we know it is the strongest finisher out of the whole field and looking at the rest of the nags – it is a poor field with weak opposition. So, I expect the horse to win ugly – no big margin win – this horse will duel with another horse or horses – but will get his nut on the line where it matters.

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 01:12 PM

TURFWAY PARK – RACE 6 – 3 CHAPEL DANCER

This horse’s key races were way back at Presque Isle Downs on 12^th & 28^th September 2012 – after that the poor horse has been running over any distance apart from 6 furlongs apart from his last “prep” race !

On 12^th Sept 2012, tracked the early pace in 4^th spot. Then made the killer move halfway around the home turn. Came a very wide – 4 wide at the top of the stretch and the jockey got stuck into it down the finish and managed to grab the lead in the shadow of the post and won.

Then on 28^th Sept 2012, had a better draw – let the early speed go off and then made the effort around the home turn closer to the rail. Jockey again got stuck into the horse and it responded to win well over 6.

After that, the poor horse has been sprinting over any distance apart from 6 – even a race over a mile !

Then at Turfway on 14^th Dec – races back over 6. Again, let’s the early speed go – but tracks the leaders at the back of the main field.

Around the home turn – jockey takes him wide and comes 4 wide into stretch. But still overtakes all the horses infront of it and a horse behind it breezes past him to win the race. However, the jockey didn’t get stuck into Chapel Dancer down the stretch – which makes me think – this race was not the race – Chapel Dancer was supposed to win.

Loves the 6 – raced 11 times and won 4 times and been 1^st or 2^nd 8 times over this distance. Looking at the rest – Chapel Dancer is the strongest finisher of the lot and faces weak opposition – the only real threat I can see is Boozy Bird could improve with the 3^rd off a layoff angle – but last time Chapel Dancer beat the horse !

So, I am confident this horse will hit the frame and has the goods and the finish to win with a lot of speed in the race, which might see the early leaders soften themselves up for a horse coming past them down the stretch.

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 01:39 PM

HAWTHORNE – RACE 8 – 5 BATTLE FACTS

After racing at a high level at Arlington Park during the summer – came to Hawthorne and raced again at a higher level than today’s race.
The 3 races with one on turf – showed 25k was too high – so the last race – plummeted down the ranks to 5k.

OK, it was over 5 furlongs – but won it well, tracked the early leader and was 3 lengths down at the top of the stretch. Once the jockey got stuck into the horse, it went up another gear and it was job done.

Today, goes upto 12.5k level which is still half of what it was up against when Battle Facts first showed up at Hawthorne – maybe the extra distance could be a problem. But the massive speed figure from its last win towers over anything else in the field and there is a lot of dead wood.

Main dangers are Zippidy Do Hah who could improve and French Colonel – who was a c&d winner last time at a lower grade.

Also, interesting to see Taylor B Rice has been jocked off and rides Apollyon – bit of an outsider and Timothy Thornton jumps back on board – so possibly Thornton’s agent thinks this horse can win in this grade – to get the horse back !

OK, back later with Charles Town Race 2 – 8 RAVENS TERMS & Mountaineer Race 10 - 5 D'WILDBILL

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 02:45 PM

Bad day at the office so far - bummer !

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 03:18 PM

CHARLES TOWN – RACE 2 – RAVENS TERMS

Loves the distance – raced 5 times and won twice and runner up twice.

Last 3 runs – Ravens Terms has been getting better speed figures.

And is on a hat-trick after winning last 2 races over C&D.

Has raced twice before over C&D in Allowance company and on 14^th November, had a bad draw – PP8 – but had the early tactical speed to brake well and hold a good “possie” coming into the home stretch for the first time. Get tabs on the front two all the way down the back straight and mounted a good challenge around the home turn and led from 2f out. Raced up the finish strongly and it looked a solid win.

5^th December – back in same grade. This time from the worst draw of the field – PP10. Again, the jockey did well and broke fast and got to the head of the field within the first furlong. Coming down the home stretch the first time – the jockey gave the horse a breather and tracked the leaders to go out into the country for the final time. Then with 4 to go – mounted a real serious challenge and it was basically all over 3 out and poured it on around the home turn !

Now same winning distance and just a gradually up in grade into a non-winners of 3.

If Indiana Moon does not get in – then Ravens Terms has a big advantage on its last run and will be the strongest finisher of the whole field. Compatriot could be a danger if it makes some improvement – but has not won yet at this distance.

So, it looks like Ravens Terms is in hot form against suspect competitors – strong bet on this one.

**singgooner** · 12-28-13, 05:21 PM

MOUNTAINEER PARK – RACE 10 – 5 D’WILLBILL

Been racing in Canada at Woodbine this year. Comes down to Mountaineer for the back end of the season.

Debuts in an Allowance race and that was too high a grade.

Now drops into a 5k Claimer – ticks a lot of boxes with the best last speed figure, early speed and late speed figures – so can burst out from the start and control the pace and win from the front.

If the horse that run in the Allowance race turns up in this 5k Claimer – it should be game over.

**singgooner** · 12-29-13, 04:25 AM

Oh well, finished strong in the end after Hawthorne abandoned and at least my 2 strongest bets came in ! Hope you bet like men on those two.

Updated stats

win strike rate 50% stake 2000 won 1720 -280
place strike rate 60% stake 2000 won 1520 -480
show strike rate 80% stake 2000 won 1880 -120

If you have any feedback like cut the waffle and just give the horse and name or any other ideas - let me know.

Happy punting