Jbex plays

[JBEX]

prx R7 #8 grandpa len (4-1)

[JBEX]

belmont

R1 #5 conquest prankster (2-1)
R2 #5 baldonnel (12-1) half..#8 texas tea (4-1) half
R3 #6 know it all anna (3-1)
R4 #8 vintage matters (10-1)
R5 #4 protection (1-1)
R6 #3 deedeezee (5-1)
R7 #5 st louie (3-1)

last 2 later

[JBEX]

R8 #2 finn's girl (4-1) half.. #10 hold harmless (5-1) half
R9 #2 croke park (7-2)

2nd and final

[JBEX]

gonna post santa anita and maybe churchill depending how the track comes up

[JBEX]

churchill.. 5pm..good or better to play.. could go half unit muddy or sloppy

R1 #5 conquest playmisty (5-2)
R2 #1 oak brook (6-1)
R3 #9 k one kobra (9-2)
R4 #3 champagne time (5-1)
R5 #3 detroit cowboy (6-1)
R6 #9 sail maker (3-1)
R7 #1 purim's danawa (6-1)
R8 #9 elona (15-1) half

santa anita

R3 #8 lantzman (8-1)
R6 #2 lucky student (3-1)
R7 #5 old man lake (9-2)
R8 #3 zuri chop (4-1) half

[JBEX]

belmont

R2 #10 too wild regent (12-1)
R4 #7 money illusion (4-1)

good or fast or on turf to play
look rest later if tracks not off

[JBEX]

R7 #7 morethanawarning (8-1)

lengths behind at each of last 4 calls 3 starts back exactly the same as her last race which is really amazing.. followed that race up with a solid 2nd at 1⅛ and an extra furlong wouldn't have hurt her in that spot or quite a few others.. gets that extra furlong
today going 1¼ ..if it doesn't get moved to the dirt

2nd and final

[JBEX]

belmont

R1 #7 crimson cat (5-1)
R2 #7 jumping frac flash (10-1)
R3 #1 tale of mist (8-1)
R4 #5 holdtherightcards (3-1)
R5 #10 ordinaire (3-1)

must be on turf to play those races ..any condition
rest later

[JBEX]

R6 #5 weekend express (20-1)
R7 #3 spelling again (12-1)
R8 #1 recepta (5-2)
R9 #5 governor malibu (10-1)
R10 #1 morandi (8-1)
R11#5 majestic bloom (8-1)

2nd post.. probably it for today

[JBEX]

belmont... good/fast or on the turf to play

R1 #4 pass the dice (3-1)
R2 #6 rubicon (8-1)
R3 #6 manhattan mischief (15-1)
R4 #1 jane peterson (12-1) half.. #8 red letter (20-1) half
R5 #3 tottie royer (30-1)

rest later

[JBEX]

R6 #2 war bond (10-1) half.. #11 gandono (20-1) half
R7 #9 sonnyandpally (5-1)
R8 #1 turco bravo (7-2)
R9 #3 city section (15-1) half.. #6 rain in spain (20-1)

2nd and final

[JBEX]

going to stay away till Friday.. . just switched over to timeform pp's and trying to get a feel for them.. will have drf in addition for pimlico friday and saturday just so I have something I'm more familiar with for those cards

[Easy-Rider 66]

going to stay away till Friday.. . just switched over to timeform pp's and trying to get a feel for them.. will have drf in addition for pimlico friday and saturday just so I have something I'm more familiar with for those cards

Hey JBEX just curious as to why you switched to Timeform? I have not looked at DRF for a while, but I believe TF is a better product. Keep us updated on how you like the TF and to see if you get some results.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX just curious as to why you switched to Timeform? I have not looked at DRF for a while, but I believe TF is a better product. Keep us updated on how you like the TF and to see if you get some results.

first and foremost it's cheaper.. access to every track for 69/mo tough to beat.. like the pace figures and the fact they incorporate the pace of the race into the final figure.. only thing I don't like is I can no longer figure out how fast a race the horse exited which is something I use a lot in my handicapping with the beyers.. They give you a race rating instead which I don't care for as much.. we'll see what happens but till middle of June I'm a timeform guy

[JBEX]

pimlico

used timeform and no drf.. tomorrow probably get drf in addition but the off track makes me less excited about the whole thing

R1 #6 anna rae (6-1)
R2 #10 top sheet (3-1)
R4 #7 leafy shade (5-1)
R6 #4 sunnysammi (5-2)
R7 #7 noble bird (3-1)
R8 #7 rocket heat (5-2)
R9 #2 engaginglee (6-1)
R10 #8 koala queen (10-1)

rest later

[sshz]

The weather for the Preakness has been downgraded a bit, daytime rain now at 1/2 inch starting at 5AM but later afternoon there is only a 35% chance of showers and that may give the track a chance to dry out some.........

[JBEX]

The weather for the Preakness has been downgraded a bit, daytime rain now at 1/2 inch starting at 5AM but later afternoon there is only a 35% chance of showers and that may give the track a chance to dry out some.........

probaby still be muddy but a little more promising anyway..thanks

[JBEX]

R11 #10 kinsley kisses (6-1)
R12 #4 I'm the lucky one (12-1)
R13 #8 r girls a charmer (4-1)
R14 #4 guts and glory (8-1)

[tlafer]

Hey JBEX, you know if you want cheap past performances, if you have a Twinspires account the Bris pp's are free, all you have to do is make one bet for as little as $1 at the track you get the pp's for.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX, you know if you want cheap past performances, if you have a Twinspires account the Bris pp's are free, all you have to do is make one bet for as little as $1 at the track you get the pp's for.

thanks tiafer.. good to know

[JBEX]

pimlico ..figuring sloppy and off turf for 4th

R2 #11 reggae song (6-1)
R4 #2 madam aamoura (7-2)

more later.. not gonna force things today with bad conditions

[JBEX]

R6 #3 easy river (10-1)half..#7 marengo rd (10-1) half
R8 #1 miss matzoball (12-1) half.. #1 rumble doll (15-1) half

[JBEX]

exaggerator

[JBEX]

have timeform through june 15th and decided that I don't want to be experimenting on here learning a new product.. I'll probably buy drf a few days here and there and may post then.. end of the month probably going to switch back totally to the form but will keep an open mind .. Not knocking timeform but feel it's not the best fit for how I cap

[tlafer]

Hey JBEX I forget whether you've said you have tried the BRIS reports before and you like DRF better, but as I said previously you get the BRIS reports for free if you make just one bet at Twinspires. I like the BRIS reports better then DRF, seems like they have a lot more features. I also like having a Twinspires account because you know they let you make "conditional" win wagers. So if you like a horse in the fifth race with a morning line of 8-1, but you don't want to bet it if it is bet down, you can make a conditional wager, so that your bet only happens if the horse is at least 8-1 at 0 minutes to post, or at least 10-1, or whatever minimum odds you want. That way if you have other things to do and you can't sit in front of your computer watching the odds, you don't have to.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX I forget whether you've said you have tried the BRIS reports before and you like DRF better, but as I said previously you get the BRIS reports for free if you make just one bet at Twinspires. I like the BRIS reports better then DRF, seems like they have a lot more features. I also like having a Twinspires account because you know they let you make "conditional" win wagers. So if you like a horse in the fifth race with a morning line of 8-1, but you don't want to bet it if it is bet down, you can make a conditional wager, so that your bet only happens if the horse is at least 8-1 at 0 minutes to post, or at least 10-1, or whatever minimum odds you want. That way if you have other things to do and you can't sit in front of your computer watching the odds, you don't have to.

I've seen but never tried bris reports.. All I really need to handicap are decent speed figures ,which for me have been beyers, and the 4-5 racecalls provided in the form.. Once I get into pace figures and bias info it messes with my thought process and over time feel it's not good for my game. Like the trainer stats also but they're more of a secondary tool ...too much information no good for me ..being able to have an odds minimum pretty cool feature but I'm not a regular bettor anyway.. Triple Crown races and breeders cup about the only times I get involved for money.. just like the challenge of handicapping and on a limited budget

I'll tell you a story and swear it's true.. the year giacomo won the kentucky derby I had 5 horses in a derby future bet all from the first pool in feburary I believe.. 4 made it into the derby including the eventual top two finishers ..exacta giacomo and closing argument paid about $4900 for a buck.. $12 all it would have cost me for a $1 exacta box.. didn't do it because according to the ragozins ,which I had access to through a friend who bought them, my horses were all too slow.. still stupid for not doing it for that small an amount but those kind of things stick with you.. can't be everywhere, stick to what your comfortable with if it gets you good results..too much tinkering not always the best thing

[tlafer]

Oh wow that is a drag about not betting that exacta. I've had a similar experience once or twice before. Anyway I get what you're saying. You find something that works, and keep it simple. One thing I noticed comparing BRIS and DRF, with BRIS more horses are close to the horse with the top speed number most races, in DRF there seems to usually be more of a gap. So with BRIS you are going to hit more longshots, although of course you are going to have a lot more losing bets on longshots also. But it is interesting that the speed numbers often don’t correlate, there is quite a difference between the two

[JBEX]

Oh wow that is a drag about not betting that exacta. I've had a similar experience once or twice before. Anyway I get what you're saying. You find something that works, and keep it simple. One thing I noticed comparing BRIS and DRF, with BRIS more horses are close to the horse with the top speed number most races, in DRF there seems to usually be more of a gap. So with BRIS you are going to hit more longshots, although of course you are going to have a lot more losing bets on longshots also. But it is interesting that the speed numbers often don’t correlate, there is quite a difference between the two

a length is worth different amounts at different distances with the beyers.. as the distances get further the value of a length gets lower.I would imagine it works the same way with bris numbers except the point value per length is lower making the difference from the highest figs to the lowest smaller.. I've noticed also that on scale there's a wide difference of opinion between the two
quite often.. I've been using the beyers since they started being published in the form around the mid 90's..have faith in them

[JBEX]

parx ..using drf

R1 #6 lady beth sheba (15-1)
R2 #1a sandcat (4-1)
R3 #2 sierra sun (7-2)
R4 #5 wildcatpleasures (7-2)
R5 #2 bella lou (10-1)

rest later

[hawkwind]

I like the sandcat play a lot looking a bit more into the Bella Lou selection. Thx for the picks

[JBEX]

I like the sandcat play a lot looking a bit more into the Bella Lou selection. Thx for the picks

bella lou a little more of a reach.. has one thing I look for that I won't share..besides that back numbers that would do this and the jockey had a $38 horse for this trainer.. probably got some needed conditioning last race off 5 month layoff

[JBEX]

R6 #6 pleiedian (2-1)
R7 #5 jet majesty (8-5)
R8 #5 awesome dixie (9-2) full.. #9 heady creek (10-1) half

2nd picks post today

[JBEX]

gonna post some indiana grand a little later

[JBEX]

indiana grand

R1 #2 billy white shoes (2-1)
R3 #3 dei gratia (10-1)
R4 #3 runner runner (4-1)
R5 #3 easy victory (6-5)
R6 #8 strong composition (9-2)
R7 #8 majestic angel (6-1)
R8 #2 checkthesalt (6-1) half.. #3 christmas princess (20-1) half

[JBEX]

wasn't aware but just saw that churchill has a similar bet to gulfstream's rainbow 6 called the "single 6"

.20 increment (same)
10% carryover no single winner (better than GP 30%)
15% take.. guessing GP was higher but not sure.. still cheap
this past sunday it paid $4700 and parlay was around $900
412k current carryover

they have a 5pm post today.. gonna do belmont and may take a peak at churchill also