A couple of things I learned today (KY Derby)

[BGboothA]

1. Never ever leave Calvin Borel off your ticket. I was all over Revolutionary today, and after watching the replay again, I know why. He ran a perfect race, and gave Revolutionary every chance in the world to win that race, he just didn't have it at the end. But if you watch this thing and just watch Calvin, you can't deny that he ran that near perfectly.
*chart says Revolutionary was bumped at the start...

2. Orb is the real deal. Was 15 back going into the second turn and destroyed the competition in the last quarter or so.

3. Mike Smith has never really showed up to the KY, I don't know what happened, I saw an interview where Smith blamed the crazy pace set by Palace Malice on the blinkers, but damn, came out to a 22.5 / 45.3, Palace Had no shot, I am actually amazed he held on to 12th.

4. I still can't figure out how Golden Soul was there near the end.....

[Easy-Rider 66]

Really Hope ORB wins the Preakness and comes out of the race in good shape. It's great when the Belmont has a chance to produce a Triple Crown Winner. Probably will lay off the Preakness and root for ORB. Then take a shot and try to beat him in the Belmont. ORB is bred to get the 1 1/2 in the Belmont, but 3 races in 5 weeks is a tall order.

[harthebar]

I watched calvin you just does what he does, just stayed n the rail. And got third, who i liked was rosies horse , who was running right next to calvin and orb, but she decided to follow orb she lost a lot of ground , but finished well. The preakness will be interesting. Tessseron is racing today at woodbine.any thoughts on him

1. Never ever leave calvin borel off your ticket. I was all over revolutionary today, and after watching the replay again, i know why. He ran a perfect race, and gave revolutionary every chance in the world to win that race, he just didn't have it at the end. But if you watch this thing and just watch calvin, you can't deny that he ran that near perfectly.
*chart says revolutionary was bumped at the start...

2. Orb is the real deal. Was 15 back going into the second turn and destroyed the competition in the last quarter or so.

3. Mike smith has never really showed up to the ky, i don't know what happened, i saw an interview where smith blamed the crazy pace set by palace malice on the blinkers, but damn, came out to a 22.5 / 45.3, palace had no shot, i am actually amazed he held on to 12th.

4. I still can't figure out how golden soul was there near the end.....

[mikemca]

1. Never ever leave Calvin Borel off your ticket. I was all over Revolutionary today, and after watching the replay again, I know why. He ran a perfect race, and gave Revolutionary every chance in the world to win that race, he just didn't have it at the end. But if you watch this thing and just watch Calvin, you can't deny that he ran that near perfectly.
*chart says Revolutionary was bumped at the start...

2. Orb is the real deal. Was 15 back going into the second turn and destroyed the competition in the last quarter or so.

3. Mike Smith has never really showed up to the KY, I don't know what happened, I saw an interview where Smith blamed the crazy pace set by Palace Malice on the blinkers, but damn, came out to a 22.5 / 45.3, Palace Had no shot, I am actually amazed he held on to 12th.

4. I still can't figure out how Golden Soul was there near the end.....

I thought Albarado gave Golden Soul the best ride in the race.However both he and Borel were beneficiaries of I think it was Prado on Charming Kitten coming off the rail to the 2-3 path on the far turn allowing them to go through on the rail.If Prado keeps his position they both get shut off and finish way back.

Normandy Invasion IMO ran the best race aside from Orb.He broke a little slow and was moving forward throughout the race into the heart of the fast fractions and grabbed the lead top of the stretch and still held 4th.Have to think that race is going to take a lot out of him but it was a monster effort.

I would say the fact that Orb was so far back is what helped him win the race.Rosario is just in the zone right now.

[mikemca]

Departing is going to be the horse everyone tries to beat Orb with in the Preakness.


I don't see it.Think Orb is a legitimate TC threat having exposed all the likely challengers.Sets up for some crazy Zito bomb to spoil at Belmont.Only Rosario is a much better rider than Stewart Elliot.

[Rbyrne]

Departing is a nice horse and will be the fresher horse going into the Preakness but Orb is better...I do think departing hits the board tho...I had 50 to win on Orb yesterday and boxed 6 horses for 0.50 cents which cost 60...I had the 3 and 16 but had the wrong bombs I overlooked the 4 golden soul after I said I was gonna use him but still came out with profit since orb won

[Easy-Rider 66]

Departing is going to be the horse everyone tries to beat Orb with in the Preakness.


I don't see it.Think Orb is a legitimate TC threat having exposed all the likely challengers.Sets up for some crazy Zito bomb to spoil at Belmont.Only Rosario is a much better rider than Stewart Elliot.

Realize Birdstone was 37/1 when he beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont, but it retrospect would not call him winning crazy. He ran 8th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Won the travers despite being 4th choice at 5/1. Sired 2 Triple Crown race winners. Son of Grindstone. I believe he was a solid horse overlooked by the betting public. I think the criticism of Elliot for his Belmont ride was that he sent Smarty too early. Maybe that cost him the race, But Birdstone was a good horse. Have to agree that ORB looks like the real deal. Think he wins the Preakness, but winning the Belmont will be tough.

[mikemca]

Realize Birdstone was 37/1 when he beat Smarty Jones in the Belmont, but it retrospect would not call him winning crazy. He ran 8th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Won the travers despite being 4th choice at 5/1. Sired 2 Triple Crown race winners. Son of Grindstone. I believe he was a solid horse overlooked by the betting public. I think the criticism of Elliot for his Belmont ride was that he sent Smarty too early. Maybe that cost him the race, But Birdstone was a good horse. Have to agree that ORB looks like the real deal. Think he wins the Preakness, but winning the Belmont will be tough.

I guess we just have to disagree.It was crazy IMO.It doesn't matter what Birdstone finished in the Derby,Smarty Jones was light years better than the next 3 year old.You like T-Graph ,look in the archives at Birdstone's sheet compared to Smarty's sheet .It took a wide trip,3 rabbits (For lack of a better word.Was 3 pace challengers while maybe not typical E type rabbits)and a terrible ride for Smarty Jones to lose that Belmont.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I guess we just have to disagree.It was crazy IMO.It doesn't matter what Birdstone finished in the Derby,Smarty Jones was light years better than the next 3 year old.You like T-Graph ,look in the archives at Birdstone's sheet compared to Smarty's sheet .It took a wide trip,3 rabbits (For lack of a better word.Was 3 pace challengers while maybe not typical E type rabbits)and a terrible ride for Smarty Jones to lose that Belmont.

I checked the T-graph archives and looked at the sheets numbers for the Belmont 2004. You are correct that Smarty was running much the best as he had around 5 negative figures out of 7 races in 2004. Purge had a couple of zero's and a negative, and Rock Hard Ten had a couple of 1's. Birdstone was not running nearly as fast as a 3 year old with his best figure a 2 in the mud as a 2 year old. From that perspective I agree that is was a shocker that Birdstone won. However, the Belmont was Smarty's 7th race that year, while only the fourth for Birdstone. Being a proponent of the theory that well rested horses run better overall than tired ones, I could see why Birdstone might have won. From that angle it is no surprise that he passed a tired Smarty in the last 100 yards. Overall, Smarty was clearly the better horse.

[soonerstud7804]

does anyone know or can the figure out what the payout would of been if the 4 horse had come in over the 16...I had the 16,4,3 boxed. and I had 3 separate tix with 16,3 on them does anyone know what that 2 dollar box would've paid...thanks

[nvrlose37]

Not sure about always taking Calvin, past two derbies he has done nothing. I really thought he would get boxed in on this derby too and Revoltionary wouldve been nowhere so I was wrong there.

I'm thinking Golden Soul was the benefactor of the slop. He ran a fast final in the LA derby but just couldnt pass all the the other horses that time, thats why i left him out.

Orb definitely has a chance. Looks like a 1-5 Belmont horse.

[mikemca]

I checked the T-graph archives and looked at the sheets numbers for the Belmont 2004. You are correct that Smarty was running much the best as he had around 5 negative figures out of 7 races in 2004. Purge had a couple of zero's and a negative, and Rock Hard Ten had a couple of 1's. Birdstone was not running nearly as fast as a 3 year old with his best figure a 2 in the mud as a 2 year old. From that perspective I agree that is was a shocker that Birdstone won. However, the Belmont was Smarty's 7th race that year, while only the fourth for Birdstone. Being a proponent of the theory that well rested horses run better overall than tired ones, I could see why Birdstone might have won. From that angle it is no surprise that he passed a tired Smarty in the last 100 yards. Overall, Smarty was clearly the better horse.

But ability has to come in somewhere or else a nickel claimer can beat Orb in the Belmont if he has more rest.

Using Thoro math

Smarty was about 14 1/2 lengths better than Birdstone's 2 turn top and going into the Belmont Smarty's Preakness was about 18 1/2 lengths better than Birdstone's Kentucky Derby effort.

I don't mean to go on and on about this Smarty Jones is just a sore spot for me being he is my favorite horse.
I know everyone reads the sheets different but the way I see it if a 3 year old horse runs a neg # they usually will regress or maybe run one more before regressing(See Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano) but when Smarty got back to his top running his 4th neg # in a row I would reason that he was special and neg #'s aren't going to affect him like others.

The main reason I brought that up is that I'm guessing Orb ran his 2nd neg # in a row in the Derby so his Preakness will tell a lot about his Belmont, at least IMO.

[harthebar]

how about rosie's horse , she was on the rail, but she shifted way outside. I think she finished better than them all except orb,

I guess we just have to disagree.It was crazy IMO.It doesn't matter what Birdstone finished in the Derby,Smarty Jones was light years better than the next 3 year old.You like T-Graph ,look in the archives at Birdstone's sheet compared to Smarty's sheet .It took a wide trip,3 rabbits (For lack of a better word.Was 3 pace challengers while maybe not typical E type rabbits)and a terrible ride for Smarty Jones to lose that Belmont.

[harthebar]

so the question ,,...right now , if you had your choice of any horse , who wins pi mlico ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

But ability has to come in somewhere or else a nickel claimer can beat Orb in the Belmont if he has more rest.

Using Thoro math

Smarty was about 14 1/2 lengths better than Birdstone's 2 turn top and going into the Belmont Smarty's Preakness was about 18 1/2 lengths better than Birdstone's Kentucky Derby effort.

I don't mean to go on and on about this Smarty Jones is just a sore spot for me being he is my favorite horse.
I know everyone reads the sheets different but the way I see it if a 3 year old horse runs a neg # they usually will regress or maybe run one more before regressing(See Itsmyluckyday and Verrazano) but when Smarty got back to his top running his 4th neg # in a row I would reason that he was special and neg #'s aren't going to affect him like others.

The main reason I brought that up is that I'm guessing Orb ran his 2nd neg # in a row in the Derby so his Preakness will tell a lot about his Belmont, at least IMO.

I agree with your premise. And Smarty ran a great race in the Belmont. He jut got beat by a fresher horse who had ability. If Orb wins the Preakness and goes for the Triple Crown have to think he will be around 3/5 on the money. No way I would play him. Will look for a well rested horse who might improve and take a shot. And if ORB wins, at least it's good for the game.

[mikemca]

how about rosie's horse , she was on the rail, but she shifted way outside. I think she finished better than them all except orb,

I think he is a hanger.Don't know how he didn't get by Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby.

My horses out of the Derby are Will Take Charge and Normandy Invasion.



Preakness probables

Orb
Vyjack
Goldencents
Departing
Govenor Charlie
Oxbow
Will Take Charge
and Chad Brown leaving the door open for Normandy Invasion.

Looks like a lot of horses are pointing for the Belmont.

[TonyP]

MIke a friend of mine told me if SMarty won she was going to name her kid Smarty lol

[pulledclear]

Watch out for Governor Charlie! Trust me.

[mikemca]

MIke a friend of mine told me if SMarty won she was going to name her kid Smarty lol

She is lucky she doesn't have a little Smarty running around.He wins that race 9 out of 10 times.It took a perfect storm to beat him.

Watch out for Governor Charlie! Trust me.

Dunno about that.Midnight Lucky didn't exactly flatter him.

[pulledclear]

Take it from the ONLY guy on this board that liked Golden Soul. Governor Charlie is VERY VERY good and shouldnt be taken lightly.

[mikemca]

Yeah OK don't feel like arguing anymore today.GL

[TonyP]

Orb can sit on or come from off the pace wich I think will help and possbily a tc

[Madison]

I thought Albarado gave Golden Soul the best ride in the race.However both he and Borel were beneficiaries of I think it was Prado on Charming Kitten coming off the rail to the 2-3 path on the far turn allowing them to go through on the rail.If Prado keeps his position they both get shut off and finish way back.

Normandy Invasion IMO ran the best race aside from Orb.He broke a little slow and was moving forward throughout the race into the heart of the fast fractions and grabbed the lead top of the stretch and still held 4th.Have to think that race is going to take a lot out of him but it was a monster effort.

I would say the fact that Orb was so far back is what helped him win the race.Rosario is just in the zone right now.

Yeah, as stated previously I felt Normandy Invasion was the key. Friend talked me off Orb but I still had a good ex box with NI. I'm an admitted novice but was pretty confident when NI took the lead late.

Weird ride for Palice Malice, no?

[str]

Yeah, as stated previously I felt Normandy Invasion was the key. Friend talked me off Orb but I still had a good ex box with NI. I'm an admitted novice but was pretty confident when NI took the lead late.

Weird ride for Palice Malice, no?

Watch the replay on Palace Malice in this thread. As he goes towards the wire the 1st time he hits another gear. Almost assuredly from the noise of the crowd, the slamming of 80 hoofs into slop and the echo from the grandstand. Looks too me that he basically runs off , like he is scared, just before the wire and in his mind, runs for his life until he runs out of gas. The jockeys hands never move. The rider did not want that, but when a horse clinches down on the bit, grabs it, locks his teeth, and runs off, the jockey is only a passenger. That is what happened IMO.
Nice call on NI. He ran very well.

[mikemca]

Orb can sit on or come from off the pace wich I think will help and possbily a tc

I gave my take on Orbs TC hopes.I think it all comes down to how he runs in the Preakness.If he runs another big number and wins he has an excellent chance to win the TC but if he regresses and still wins then I think he has little chance in the Belmont.Basically in the first instance that means the big efforts are easy for him and in the 2nd instance the two big efforts in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies have taken their toll and he is going to need time to heal which he won't get coming back in the Belmont.

Yeah, as stated previously I felt Normandy Invasion was the key. Friend talked me off Orb but I still had a good ex box with NI. I'm an admitted novice but was pretty confident when NI took the lead late.

Weird ride for Palice Malice, no?

Normandy Invasion has to be one of the most unlucky horses ever to this point of his career.He has ran too good to lose in each of his last 4 races and is 0-4.

Like STR said I think Palace Malice just ran off but if he ever puts a complete race together he can be very good .

[TonyP]

I gave my take on Orbs TC hopes.I think it all comes down to how he runs in the Preakness.If he runs another big number and wins he has an excellent chance to win the TC but if he regresses and still wins then I think he has little chance in the Belmont.Basically in the first instance that means the big efforts are easy for him and in the 2nd instance the two big efforts in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies have taken their toll and he is going to need time to heal which he won't get coming back in the Belmont.




Normandy Invasion has to be one of the most unlucky horses ever to this point of his career.He has ran too good to lose in each of his last 4 races and is 0-4.

Like STR said I think Palace Malice just ran off but if he ever puts a complete race together he can be very good .

I agree Mike

[soonerstud7804]

I will try again.. I just want to know if there is a way to find out... What would the Derby of paid if it came 4,16 on the exacta or what would it have paid if it came 16,3 on a 2 dollar box... if anyone knows a website I can find out would greatly appresh it...thanks. guys always good info here.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I will try again.. I just want to know if there is a way to find out... What would the Derby of paid if it came 4,16 on the exacta or what would it have paid if it came 16,3 on a 2 dollar box... if anyone knows a website I can find out would greatly appresh it...thanks. guys always good info here.

Did a google search and could not find it. But would think that an exacta with 4/16 would have paid at least $1500 if not more.

[Slimpickens]

Watch out for Governor Charlie! Trust me.

Governor Charlie doesnt belong on the same racetrack as Orb. Orb will on him.

[Jotoole0821]

i saw departing live at the illinois derby. yes that field was incredibly weak since basically the only threat to him was the 12 siete de oros (2nd in jerome behind vyjack 3rd in withers 4th in gotham). departing did explode on that long stretch at hawthorne. i believe it will be a dash to the finish b/w departing and orb

[homerbush]

I will try again.. I just want to know if there is a way to find out... What would the Derby of paid if it came 4,16 on the exacta or what would it have paid if it came 16,3 on a 2 dollar box... if anyone knows a website I can find out would greatly appresh it...thanks. guys always good info here.

You would have to find the exacta probables page as it was a separate pool and cannot be determined by the winners and runner ups win odds. You may try Churchill downs website and see if the tote will go back in history I have gotten it to once in awhile.

[soonerstud7804]

thanks guys!!

[cecil127]

that phukkin DD didnt pay chit...THATS what i learned from the KD this time around.
phukkin payout was like i was betting a sulky track

[skw12354]

Take it from the ONLY guy on this board that liked Golden Soul. Governor Charlie is VERY VERY good and shouldnt be taken lightly.

knes

I totally agree! He's going to be rested and has seemed to get better in each race, even with a little added distance. 1 3/16 miles is still not a short distance, but Bob Baffert must feel that he's up for it. He's had a great track record with horses in the Preakness, particularly with Martin Garcia. Normandy Invasion had a lead at the 16th pole in the Derby, so I'll put him in there too. I think I'll just box Orb, Normandy Invasion, and Governor Charlie in a trifecta. Hopefully none of them draw the rail post.