Races with no speed/early pace setter types?

[Boner_18]

Handicapping a card and ive come across a race with 8 entrants. There is one closer type and the rest are pacer/stalker types. Not a single horse in the race has ever led at the 1/4 and only 2 have ever led at the 1/2.

What does this mean? Who benefits from this? I'm inclined to think all the pacer/stalker types will have plenty of gas left due to a slower pace and thus the less strong ones get a bump relative to their odds... Thoughts? How would you approach this scenario?

[mikemca]

It comes down to the jocks.A good jock like Ramon or Javier would notice that and go right to the lead on any type horse.Its not really handicappable though because there is usually no way to know which jock is going to take advantage.

Without knowing that I would look to see who makes the best middle moves as they are likely going to be in a good position come the top of the stretch.

[daoilman]

Just like Mike said, when there is no early speed, look for late speed, horses that have shown in their past that they are up close to the lead when turning for home, best to avoid deep closing horses in slow paced fields, particularly in maiden races where the entrants have limited starts (often it takes time to teach lightly raced horses how to rate far back and kick hard to home).

Also pay attention for blinkers on, distance switches, and apprentice riders, often those types are signaling intent that they are well meant, knowing the tactics that different trainers use in these type of situations is your best friend.

Good luck.

[JakeLc]

the flipside to that is a horse is used more early than it is accustomed to and ends up being empty late because of the energy expended early

[mikemca]

the flipside to that is a horse is used more early than it is accustomed to and ends up being empty late because of the energy expended early

That's true in a normal run race but in a race where they go .26 - .52 whoever is in front is at a huge advantage.

[JakeLc]

When you ask a horse to expend more energy early ,it's likely they have less in the tank down the lane.
A one paced grinder/closer isn't at as much of a disadvantage in a slow-paced race unless the horses near the front are "athletic".
The slow pace keeps the grinder/closer in the race and in contention.