Handicapping Question: How do you guys handicap the downhill Turf at Santa Anita

BGboothA · 09-27-12, 11:13 PM

I like to really take a long look at Trainers and Jockeys. I think early speed has a small advantage here as well. As far as tommorrows race goes....

my HBD program kicks out
5 SHRUG
3 CALIMONCO
9 RED SUN
6 COMMA TO THE TOP
4 COAST

After capping the race, I like the 6 COMMA TO THE TOP. The 6 will look for an early lead, and should come out of the gate well enough to be near the front coming down the hill. The 2 and the 9 may try to press the field, but I don't think either of them haev any real pace to be concerned about.

The 13 UNBRIDLED'S NOTE. May be able to jump out there and if someone is going to wire the field, it may be here, but that bend is ridiculously long, a horse on the outside adds all kinds of ground to his trip. And breaking from outside gate, is going to make this a longer race for the 13 than anyone else.

I think thats the key to this race, your position, coming across that dirt strip. With that dirt strip coming right at the bend into the stretch, sooo many horses tend to really drift outseeming worse than usual. I really don't like a horse here trying to come from too far back in the field. There is so little running room, coming around that corner.

The M/L on the 6 is the ML favorite at 9/2. I think you will be able to get a good price on this horse with a field this big.

I will be looking at
4,6/3,4,5,6,9,13 ($2 Exacta, $20)

And a 10/25 WP on the 6 if I can get 3.5-1 or better.

mrginandtonic · 09-28-12, 12:59 AM

Thanks very much for your input, BG. When you said trainer and jockey, what exactly are you referring to?? Are you mainly referring to their J/T record??

I agree with you about the outside post, but the 13 is real interesting horse. His recent form looks pretty good, but he is making his first turf start and against a big field. He is out of Unbridled and Siberian Express, so turf should be no problem. And starting from the outside gate, he may actually avoid some early trouble. Nonetheless, think I would feel more confident if Lepoaroux riding instead of Nakatani. I think Nakatani is not as good on turf.

I think the winner of this race will be the who has the cleanest trip, which is gonna be greatly dependent on the jockey. With that being said, I don't like the 6 to come out on top, solely because of Pedroza.

So far, I like the 4, 9, 13, 5 and long shot 7. Just looking at the ML, this race seems pretty wide open.

Who do you guys like??

pick4player · 09-28-12, 04:37 AM

go go... from off the pace ..cash

thezbar · 09-28-12, 06:22 AM

One of the best angles for the 6 1/2 downhill race is to look at horse that show speed going a route of ground. Preferably one mile, but 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 distances also qualify. These types tend to have enough speed to stay close then can really kick home. Numerous public handicapper use this angle, its no big secret. Other things to consider are post position and track profile. All things being equal the outside posts are the best place to start because the first turn is to the right. Posts 1 and 2 in a field of 12 are at a disadvantage. Horses can win from there but more than often they find less than ideal trips from there. If the weather is hot 90 or above the course can be more speed favoring than normal. So the autumn meet as a general rule while be more speed favoring than the winter meet. But that's also subject to how deep and hard the course is. Observe the racing early in the meet to look for a trend.
Horses for courses is also an angle to look at. A win at the distance is a big plus! I prefer at least one trip at the distance {win or lose** as some horses will try to jump over the main track when they cross over it before entering the stretch run. One other factor is the jockey. Certain riders have higher % at the distance while others don't fair as well as normal. If wagering serious money I advice staying with the more accomplished pilots.
Some of the previous posts state the 13 is a bad post. I disagree and I comfortable in stating the majority of professional handicappers would also disagree. The 13 post actually gives the rider a less severe angle into that first right hand turn and will travel less ground that the inside slots. jmtcw.

thezbar · 09-28-12, 07:33 AM

I looked at the pp's and will pick the race as follows
1. #9 Red Sun
2. #6 Comma to the Top
3. #2 Chosen Miracle

Red sun showed speed at longer distance in his last effort and is proven over the course. His spotty race record is a drawback but if he's close to 100% he should get a good trip in here. Comma to the Top shows a victory on the turf up north and has scored in some big races in the past. Easy to like but hard to trust. Chosen Miracle returns after a layoff. He's the speed of the speed on paper. If he's primed he a good longshot.

Good luck to everyone whomever you play.

mikemca · 09-28-12, 09:20 AM

IMO the advantageous posts are backward from a regular turf sprint.Its better to have speed from an outside draw rather than inside because of the first bend.It's also a major plus to have prior good runs down the hill as some horses just love it and wake up there after being dull elsewhere.

Besides that the California circuit has the most thorough clockers in the US.If you plan on playing there regularly a subscription to a workout report will go a long way.

mikemca · 09-28-12, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Thanks very much for your input, BG. When you said trainer and jockey, what exactly are you referring to?? Are you mainly referring to their J/T record??

I agree with you about the outside post, but the 13 is real interesting horse. His recent form looks pretty good, but he is making his first turf start and against a big field. He is out of Unbridled and Siberian Express, so turf should be no problem. And starting from the outside gate, he may actually avoid some early trouble. Nonetheless, think I would feel more confident if Lepoaroux riding instead of Nakatani. I think Nakatani is not as good on turf.

I think the winner of this race will be the who has the cleanest trip, which is gonna be greatly dependent on the jockey. With that being said, I don't like the 6 to come out on top, solely because of Pedroza.

So far, I like the 4, 9, 13, 5 and long shot 7. Just looking at the ML, this race seems pretty wide open.

Who do you guys like??

Nakatani is probably the best turf rider out there beside Bejarano and Gomez.Just as good if not better than the one dimensional Leparoux.

Seems like everyone of us who posted is going a different way here because I'm leaning 4-Koast(6-1) ,5-Shrug(8-1), and 10-Tale Of A Champion(12-1).All three have that tactical sprint speed that should work wonders against the speed in this field.They should be able to keep up just sitting a couple lengths back and still have a kick while the speed tires a bit. Also think the 7-Boxeur des rues(20-1) outruns his odds.

EX 4,5,10
TRI 4,5,10/4,5,10/4,5,7,10

str · 09-28-12, 11:15 AM

Never raced there but several good friends have. Both jocks and trainers, they all felt the same way.

The outside is the best going 6 1/2 down the hill. The 1st bend to the right parks the inside horses a bit and then they get pinned when everyone comes over before the true far turn. When the horses switch leads they all move over and the inside horses take the worst of it. Speed as a rule does not win these races but stalk type speed usually does. The problem with the inside is that the stalk speed gets shuffled back or is asked to early to avoid that shuffling position. An ideal spot is to have stalk speed and an outside post.
Certain horses just love that exact race and if you find one that specializes in it, they are tough to dismiss.

Of course , it's all rule of thumb stuff but the jock who thought like this won a ton of races out there and was one of the greatest of all time IMO. That's good enough for me.

Dark Horse · 09-28-12, 04:39 PM

Red Sun (6/1 ML) could have value. Lightly raced. Just nine races for this 6 year old, 5 wins, and never finished out of the money. In fact, he never finished more than 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Lot of heart.

scratbandit · 09-28-12, 06:58 PM

definitely some great information here. thx

Poppa Catfish · 09-29-12, 01:24 AM

Cool topic, people already touched on outside posts, just off the pace, horses that have prior success on the course, Nakatani/Gogo/Bejerano.

I really like horses cutting back from mile mile and change for this particular race.

mrginandtonic · 09-29-12, 01:29 AM

Just want to say thank you to everyone. There are a lot of great inputs. I got so tied up at work, didn't get a chance to read this until now. In fact, I didn't even see the race till now by watching the replay. Again, thanks everyone for their input.