4/25/2011 hockey pick

[crjohnson32]

Pittsburgh Pens ML +125

1-2 overall, -1.82 units, all plays are 2 units, 1 unit = 4% of my BR

Trying to bounce back from 2 tough losses yesterday. Teams that score first in the 2011 NHL playoffs have won 83% of the time, both my picks yesterday scored first but went on to lose in OT.

note: all odds taken from pinnacle, why would you bet anywhere else?

[crjohnson32]

LA Kings ML +111, 2 units

adding this as one of my plays for tonight

[GazGaz]

cr have u changed ur name?

[Boxing Champ]

LA Kings ML +111, 2 units

adding this as one of my plays for tonight

Home team is 0-4 in that series...
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My play Sharks/Kings OVER

Reasons.....

a) Niemi is in Goal
b) San Jose
Over is 4-0 in Sharks last 4 Monday games.
Over is 5-0 in Sharks last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 2-0-2 in Sharks last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 4-0 in Sharks last 4 games as a road favorite.
Over is 3-0-1 in Sharks last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Over is 9-1-1 in Sharks last 11 road games.
Over is 8-1-1 in Sharks last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 13-4-3 in Sharks last 20 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 12-4-2 in Sharks last 18 overall.
Over is 3-1-2 in Sharks last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 5-2 in Sharks last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4-1 in Sharks last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3-1 in Sharks last 11 vs. Pacific.
Over is 7-3-1 in Sharks last 11 games as a favorite.
c)
Los Angeles
Over is 4-0-1 in Kings last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-0 in Kings last 6 games a home underdog.
Over is 6-2-2 in Kings last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 6-2-2 in Kings last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.

[crjohnson32]

cr have u changed ur name?

nope

[crjohnson32]

My play Sharks/Kings OVER

How many units? Are you plus or minus units this playoffs? What's your record?

[Boxing Champ]

I don't handicap....just telling people my opinion and give stats when I can.

[crjohnson32]

Do you win or lose money?

[Boxing Champ]

Win in NHL

Hit 3 Overs yesterday

[crjohnson32]

Win in NHL

Hit 3 Overs yesterday

right on, what's your record for NHL in April? Your book should have a history.

I just started betting sports this year, lost my initial deposit of $200 during football season. Was going to quit then a friend told me about a capper he tailed. Friend swore by him and gave me $300 to tailed him in college basketball. I bet strictly his picks and finished +189 units from an initial deposit of $300, each unit representing 4% of my BR when each pick was made. So that was profitable.

I've been betting my own picks in NHL. So far this April I'm 12-7 +12.66 units. I bet 2 units of my BR per play. So NHL has also been profitable.

When I first started I was just betting foolishly, but I started emailing my basketball capper and him and another friend taught me a few things about BR management. Now that I keep track of my BR and how many units I'm gambling per play and per day I've been much more successful.

It helps with the tilt factor especially, for example I'd obviously be pissed if both my picks lose, but knowing that I'm still up +8.66 units this month if I lose tonight would help stop me from making a foolish bet to chase tonights losses.

[Boxing Champ]

right on, what's your record for NHL in April? Your book should have a history.

I just started betting sports this year, lost my initial deposit of $200 during football season. Was going to quit then a friend told me about a capper he tailed. Friend swore by him and gave me $300 to tailed him in college basketball. I bet strictly his picks and finished +189 units from an initial deposit of $300, each unit representing 4% of my BR when each pick was made. So that was profitable.

I've been betting my own picks in NHL. So far this April I'm 12-7 +12.66 units. I bet 2 units of my BR per play. So NHL has also been profitable.

When I first started I was just betting foolishly, but I started emailing my basketball capper and him and another friend taught me a few things about BR management. Now that I keep track of my BR and how many units I'm gambling per play and per day I've been much more successful.

It helps with the tilt factor especially, for example I'd obviously be pissed if both my picks lose, but knowing that I'm still up +8.66 units this month if I lose tonight would help stop me from making a foolish bet to chase tonights losses.

That's mostly been my problem is the money management.. After a loss or 2 ,I like most people try to chase and... get myself into a hole even deeper. Even if i have more wins than losses I can never end up with plus money..Still learning.....

[crjohnson32]

1-0 Pens, huge goal, team that scores first have won every game of this series. 83% of all teams that score first this playoff has gone onto win.

[Boxing Champ]

I think it's gonna comedown to penalties. tampa has an outstanding PP. If Pit keeps getting penalized, Tampa will take advantage., otherwise the game will go into OT. In OT....it's anyone's game, sinec the refs don't call penalties unless it's a obvious one.

[crjohnson32]

What's with the pens players laying sprawled out on the ice in front of fleury on all 3 TB goals? So sloppy, not how NHL players play defense.

[crjohnson32]

On 2 of those goals the pens player basically ended up interfering with fleury while trying to play the puck. Anyone whose played hockey before knows you play the body in front of the net. Frustrating watching NHL players neglect the basics

[crjohnson32]

Hah, ughh...

I'm going to stop posting my picks on here. I was +14.66 units this month when I started posting my NHL plays. Now after this pens loss I'm +10.44 units and -3.82 units for posted plays. It just isn't working for me. If it's not broke don't fix it.

[FrizB]

I feel your pain... Good luck for the rest of the playoffs

[Boxing Champ]

Johnson..you just gonna quit? Is that how they deal with loss in Canada????
Come on man..It's 2 losses, big deal..keep going, we got your back...

We won the Over in the sharks didn't we???
Oh shit..U didn't listen to me..my bad.

[crjohnson32]

+8.44 units this playoffs Boris. Until you tell me how many units you are up this month your plays don't mean anything to me. Oh shit... You said you always lose money...that's right...I'm not quitting gambling since I'm up almost 200 units since CBB season.

[crjohnson32]

People who consistently lose $ don't keep track of +/- units. When I asked for your betting history you said

Even if i have more wins than losses I can never end up with plus money..Still learning.....

It cost me $200 to learn and since then I'm up +197.66 units.

How much has your learning experience cost you?