BigFatPaulie's picks

[BigFatPaulie]

This is my first post here, though I've used the site for information in the past, never really ventured onto the message boards. Let me know if I screw up any posting etiquette.

Anyway, a quick background and warning, I have been betting sports for many years, and typically lose. I'm an actuary (math/statistical analysis) by profession, so I do a lot of computer analysis. I set up a model recently to try to predict sports scores. Still playing with them, but the NHL one seems to do pretty well when it comes to over/under.

So I'll post my picks here and see how it goes.

Good luck to all.

Today's picks are

ATL-NYI o5.5 (-125) and TOR-COL o5.5 (-125)

[BigFatPaulie]

Went 1-1 on those 2 for -.20 units.

There were no single game plays from my model for today, but I just noticed that it did meet the criteria for the under 27.5 in the grand salami. Of course I didn't play it and it hit...

Tomorrow the model likes the under in the NYR-BOS game if it's 5.5, but it's a stay away if it's 5. Hopefully I'll remember to check the grand salami line if/when it comes out.

Good luck to you all on your plays.

[JuniorAnalyst]

you want an under take WSH@MTL 5 Star

[BigFatPaulie]

Funny, I was just coming to post about that one and one other. It's within half a percent of being a pick from my model so I wasn't going to play it, but since I saw some other people on it, I decided I am going to play it. Same is true for Tor-Det o5.5. So today's "Official" picks from me are Was-MTL u5.5 and Tor-DET o5.5.

Good luck to all and thanks for the comment JuniorAnalyst.

[RLM_Tracker]

Love the username Good luck to you!

[BigFatPaulie]

Thanks RLM, good luck to you too!

As for last night, went 2-0. Got lucky with an empty net goal to hit the over in the Det game though.

Forgot to post the odds I got. Was u5.5 was -145, and DET o5.5 was -115, so yesterday was +1.56 units.

Overall 3-1 for +1.36 units.

No picks for today, and looks like none for tomorrow either. Should be 1 or 2 on Tuesday though.

[BigFatPaulie]

My model likes ATL-MON over and VAN-NSH under if they are 5.5. Just looked and saw that Montreal has been shut out 3 straight games, so that doesn't bode well for that over play, but I'll trust the model. I have a feeling the VAN-NSH game will be a 5 line and not 5.5, since virually every time my model likes the under they make the line 5.

The model also likes the puck line on MON and LOS, but I stopped playing those. The model started 11-7 on puck line plays, for almost +10 units, then lost 9 in a row to get back to basically breakeven, and has won 4 in a row since then for +4.2 units. I still like to look at the puck line picks, but like I said, I don't play them.

Once I put the bets in on the 2 o/u plays I'll post here what odds I got them at.

Good luck to all.

[xkgb]

yep, its got to be under 5, AND I STILL LOVE THE UNDER HERE...BOL

[BigFatPaulie]

Also PHI-PIT under 5.5 for Tuesday night.

[BigFatPaulie]

Lines just came out on Bodog.

My plays are:

Phi-Pit u5.5 (-140)
Atl-Mom o5.5 (+115)

I'll post and track my puck line plays, but I don't bet them.
Mon -1.5 (+175)
Los -1.5 (+155)

GL to all.

[Tk Fo Sho]

Chicago is 26-4-5 in the 2nd of back to back games over the last two years. Just sayin....and they are fighting for their playoff lives.

[BigFatPaulie]

Good luck with your pick, but this thread (and my plays) are limited to the results of my model. Chicago should only win about 43% of the time according to my model, so it's not a play that I would consired.

Chicago is 26-4-5 in the 2nd of back to back games over the last two years. Just sayin....and they are fighting for their playoff lives.

[BigFatPaulie]

Of course went 0-2 last night on the ones I played and 2-0 on the ones i didn't...

O/U lines I'm 3-3 for -.64 units

PL plays I went 2-0 for +3.3 units

No plays for today.

[BigFatPaulie]

Picks for tonight are:
BOS -1.5 (+140)
PHI -1.5 (+120)
NSH -1.5 (+190)
ATL-PHI o5.5 (-130)

[BigFatPaulie]

Went 0-4 last night. Yikes.

No plays for tonight.

[BigFatPaulie]

Model picks the Grand Salami Under 10.5 for tonight. (-135)

[BigFatPaulie]

Got that one wrong last night.

Tonight the picks are VAN -1.5 (+150) and NSH -1.5 (+160) The model is very streaky with the Puck lines for some reason, but these both show a very high probablilty, so I'm going to parlay them at +550, which I don't normally do, but I feel good about it. We'll see.

[BigFatPaulie]

Two othe plays for tonight. WAS-TOR u5.5 (-130) and Grand Salami u50.5 (-130)

[BigFatPaulie]

Damn, can't believe Edmonton beat Vancouver again! Really thought I had that one.

Went 3-1 last night. Tonight's picks are Bos-1.5 (+135) and FLA-WAS u5.5 (-130).

[odog11]

Puckline for Boston is the value here, they will come out fired up tonight and try to atone for the disaster Monday. Big word around Boston is executing the "game plan" for 60 minutes.

[BigFatPaulie]

Good to hear! I thought VAN would have the same attitude last night. Whoops...

[BigFatPaulie]

Tonight: Nashville -1.5, DAL-COL o5.5