^^ not a good price
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Sorry to those following on SBR; I couldn't wake up early enough to post my play on here. I did manage to get it up on twitter last night though.
Pittsburgh Penguins -0.5 RT -135: Risking $810 to win $600
Living up to my word that I'd chase my losses from the Calgary/Philly game yesterday afternoon. This is by far my biggest play this season. Calgary was on the tail end of a B2B, the last game of a five game road trip, and the fifth game in seven nights. Rule #3 of betting on NHL: road games are tough, road trips are tougher, and the last game of a non-conference road trip is the toughest.
Summary for November 26th and 27th, 2010:
1-1 +$92
Follow me on twitter @gotvass! Don't get left out!Comment -
Play for November 27th, 2010:
Toronto Maple Leafs +133: Risking $200 to win $266
I don't normally wager too much on underdogs, especially after I saw how badly I've been at picking them, but tonight is an exception. The Leafs have been quite dominant in the Battle of Ontario lately as they've won five of the last six games between the two. I'm trying to understand what's been causing the line for this game to fluctuate so much, but I can't figure it out. I think this is a good price to get the Leafs at. Ottawa is a team that tends to either win or lose in bunches. Right now, they're on a losing streak. After breaking their own eight game losing streak, or whatever it was, the Leafs finally have some confidence again and I think they'll take it to Ottawa tonight.Comment -
I made assumptions on that game that the Flyers would be able to dominate. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. I felt that Philly had what it took to win the game by two, but they just couldn't hang onto the lead, and didn't score as much as I thought they would. No regrets.Comment -
lol i had a 1 unit play on pens -.5 ... after seeing results i think the PL shoulda been taken
im so greedy
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Hmmm... I'm thinking that the young Oilers might pull off the upset tonight. San Jose has been struggling on the road lately, they'll be on the tail end of a B2B, and I see notable improvements in the Oilers style. Edmonton is finally believing in themselves again, maybe they're tired of getting walked over, but their forecheck is looking nice and aggressive as they try to force more turnovers and have their defencemen playing deeper in the offensive zones.Comment -
leafs on a b2b, no value on leafs at allComment -
lol... this NHL season's 101: Never bet on the oilers lol... not taking this back even if they win with flying colors tonight.. sorry to the edmonton oiler fansComment -
No lies here. Leafs got outplayed badly on Saturday night. I watched the first two periods before I had to leave home, which was a good thing, because it showed me how well the Sens are actually playing, and how badly the Leafs were that night. Toronto was giving up too many turnovers left and right, and Ottawa's dump-and-chase game was working beautifully. Siggy is updated, and I think I may be modifying my approach to betting. Stay tuned.Comment -
Play for Monday November 29th, 2010:
Ottawa Senators -0.5 RT -118
As much as I dislike the Senators, I can't hate on the way that they killed the Leafs on Saturday. They really exposed Toronto's weaknesses in both the offensive and defensive zones. Ottawa exploited Toronto's young players by forcing them to cough up turnovers with an aggressive, non-stop forecheck. Ottawa's home record last season was a remarkable 26-11-4. In to the nation's capital comes the Edmonton Oilers, boasting a 2010 road record of 9-28-4. The Oilers are an awful road team, just awful. They are a very young group of players, and envision the Sens doing exactly what they did on Saturday night. They'll slowly pick Edmonton apart with the forecheck, minimize Edmonton's shots on goal, and we'll see a couple of well executed odd-man chances in favour of the Sens.
I've been eying this play down since Saturday night, and I'm still in love with it.
How big is this play? Twitter knows @gotvassComment -
Gerbers in net today playing home... think he can hold up..?Comment -
Really a solid play, I'm on it too. The Senators are among the streakiest teams in the NHL... after a tough stretch of road games, I wouldn't be surprised if they start gaining momentum with a few wins at Scotia Bank Place.Comment -
Streaky is the best word to describe the Sens. If I'm recalling correctly, they got off to a slow start last season, but midway through the season, they went on a killing spree. Winning something like 11 in a row at some point as well. I don't think it'll matter who's in net for the Oilers tonight. Best of luck guys.Comment -
NY RANGERS ML (3x)Comment -
Same as you SENS RT (2x), SENS PL (1x)
GL
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Christ. Ottawa just didn't show up today. Tuned in after the first period and there was never any sense of urgency whatsoever. Writing this one off as a loss. Back at it tomorrow.
Summary for November 29th, 2010:
0-1 -$590Comment -
ottawa was not taking this game serious enough whatsoever. i watched the entire second and part third until they scored 2-1 lol... retardedly awfulComment -
I hear ya. That was a sad way for me to fall into the red. Edmonton will be playing tomorrow night against Montreal, and the night after against the Leafs, which will end their three-game East coast road trip. I'll be considering making a big play on Montreal.
But more importantly, on to tonight's games. Just to keep you guys updated, I'm slowly trying to phase out the $100 bet. I think it's my downfall. Toward the end of last season, my standard bet was a $250-unit size. I've tried starting off with the $100-unit to begin the season, but I think it might be hindering my play in the sense that I don't take it too seriously. Some nights, if a dog looks good, I'd think "Why not just throw $100 on it? Sure!" And sure enough, after back-checking my records, the $100 had a high losing percentage.
Plays for Tuesday November 30th, 2010:
Tampa Bay Lightning -105: Risking $210 to win $200
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 PL +284: Risking $100 to win $284
I'm very surprised that the line opened where it did (with the Leafs being favoured). Tampa is coming off of two straight losses: a 6-0 shutout to the Caps, and a 4-3 SO loss to the Panthers. However, they do mighty well against the Leafs. Over their L10 meetings, Tampa has amassed a 7-1-2 record. The Leaf's PK will be their undoing tonight. I feel there's a lot of value in the Tampa puckline because their five most recent wins have all come by two or more (if my memory serves me correct).
Atlanta Thrashers +108: Risking $200 to win $216
The Thrashers have been on a roll. They've been surprising everyone with their well-rounded play. Pavelec has gone 5-0 in his last five starts while allowing three goals, and collecting two shutouts. Small contributions from all of their forwards make Atlanta an offensive threat. Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche have been plagued by injuries all season long, but have managed to make their way to the top of their division. However, they've just lost Chris Stewart, one of their best offensive players, to injury. With an already thin offensive line-up, I think Colorado will really struggle against this hot Atlanta squad.
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I'm on TAMPA (2x) -106 also... GLComment -
err.. good luck on tampa, leafs might pull off something here iunno.. its more like a 50 50 but if tampa does win they'll prolly win by like 3 lolComment -
not liking movement against TAMPAComment -
cashed big (4x)on TAMPA, what a scare
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I know what you mean. Leafs came out strong today, it's actually quite a shame that they let that one slip. Mike Brown's last minute heroics went to waste. And I'd say the Leafs got jipped with that no-goal from Schenn in the first. Ref waved it off because of goaltender interference, but MacArthur was actually pushed into the goalie. Tough break for the Leafs.
Congrats on the win.
Summary for November 30th, 2010:
2-1 +$316Comment -
I got 2x on VAN ML for wednesdayComment -
a win is a win nonetheless, i mean theres only 2 outcome so.... lol nobodys in trouble so long as the ca$h flows!Comment -
Hahahaha yup! A nice third period comeback to help me crawl out of the red. Nothing is standing out to me as a play today. I'm making an effort to really cut down on forcing plays. I'll be focusing more on my "Teams to watch", which I listed in my first post of this thread.
I do think there's something up with the WAS/STL game. Capitals are on a three game win-streak. Blues are on a three game losing-streak, are on the tail end of a B2B, gave up seven goals the night before, and their offensive talent isn't very deep at all. I know the Blues have a good track record against the Caps, which makes me think that the books think this trend will continue.Comment -
Plays for Wednesday December 1st, 2010:
Montreal Canadiens -0.5 -126: Risking $252 to win $200
I know this play is posted late, and you will not be able to follow it, but I thought I'd share my reasoning anyway. Although Edmonton has finally won a couple of games, they haven't faced a team like Montreal yet. The Canadiens have a stellar defensive game, and an even better goalie, which is one of the reasons why they're doing so well this season. Their small forwards are managing to create plays and find holes in the oppositions defense, something which shouldn't be a problem against this Oilers squad. I remember the game they had against each other last season: it was a nail biter. This season, the Canadiens rank #1 in the league in terms of overall defense. Edmonton will find it tough to score tonight.Comment -
Christ sake, Montreal! HOW!
Summary for December 1st, 2010:
0-1 -$252Comment -
Took a day off to let the bleeding stop. Back to the grind. I don't think I've once bet on Chicago this season, but there's always room for change.
Plays for Friday December 3rd, 2010:
Chicago Blackhawks -118: Risking $354 to win $300
After eliminating the Canucks from the playoffs two years in a row, like a bad relationship, the memories still seem to linger. I know this will be a public bet today, and even without Hossa in the line-up, the Blackhawks secondary offense steps their game up to fill the void. The Blackhawks defense is giving the Canucks the fits every time they meet and I don't see a change coming.
Might make plays on Columbus and Detroit as well.Comment -
Nevermind about Columbus and Detroit. Chicago will be my lone play for this evening. Good luck guys!Comment -
took NYR -.5 ..... hope they can pull it off on a 1unit playComment -
man bro you need to make your picks later than sooner... mainly cuz u dont know all the info like how the hawks humiliated the nucks 7-1 at home... and that even at a press conference the nucks expressed anger and said they would get the hawks back.... who knew... they pulled it off..
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Nah, I don't think timing of the plays is an issue. Luongo undoubtedly had his best performance of the season last night. Maybe the turning point was when that kid high-fived Luongo's face as he entered the rink. Just kidding! But seriously, Luongo stood on his head and made half a dozen highlight reel saves.Comment