Mr October season long thread

**Mr0ctober** · 03-24-21, 09:09 PM

3/24:

penguins -1.5 (-114) to win 1u✅✅

NHL season: 34-39 -0.35u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 03-25-21, 06:01 PM

3/25

pens -1.5 (-125) (1u)

may add preds but haven’t seen a griess confirmation yet for Detroit.

**Mr0ctober** · 03-25-21, 06:48 PM

Add predators -170 (to win 1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 03-26-21, 08:55 AM

3/25

pens -1.5 (-125) (1u)✅
predators -170 (to win 1u)✅

NHL season: 36-39 +1.65u✅✅

just an FYI as I had a couple people tell me that their tout or hockey capper had redwings last night... which makes zero sense because they posted and told me this before Greiss was confirmed. No way would anyone that watches and tracks hockey take that Redwings team with Greiss in net at +150ish. Bernier wasn’t likely to play with injury so there was literally no reason to play that game early on redwings side. Not trying to discredit anyone but anyone that is posting hockey picks with Thomas Greiss in net at a +155 underdog does not watch hockey. And if your strictly betting a model that said redwings have value at +155 or greater then let that be a lesson that models can be flawed. Because I promise you Redwings +155 with Thomas Greiss in net had negative value. I suggest you find a new tout because that right there is the reason they have to charge

**Mr0ctober** · 03-31-21, 05:56 PM

Have to do it.

flyers -190 (to win 0.5u)
flyers -1.5 +130 (risk 0.4u)

**Mr0ctober** · 04-01-21, 08:50 PM

flyers -190 (to win 0.5u)❌
flyers -1.5 +130 (risk 0.4u)❌

0-1 -1.35u❌ (I count these splits as 0-1, 1-1 or 1-0 bc I’m essentially betting -1)

NHL season: 36-40 +0.30✅

**Mr0ctober** · 04-01-21, 08:52 PM

Hockey will slow down with baseball starting. I will do my best to cap the cards on days I get time.. capping takes time and I work full time so only so many hours in a day. Good luck the rest of the way guys! I’ll still be posting!

**Mr0ctober** · 04-19-21, 06:27 PM

4/19 NHLWild -138 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 04-20-21, 11:39 AM

4/19 NHL

Wild -138 (1u)✅ +1u
2021 NHL season: 37-40 +1.30✅

**Mr0ctober** · 05-20-21, 06:36 PM

5/20:

Wild -106 (1u)

Welcome back playoff hockey its been tremendous so far!

**Mr0ctober** · 05-21-21, 09:38 AM

Wild -106 (1u) ❌ -1.06u

2021 NHL season: 37-41 +0.24u✅

**Mr0ctober** · 05-21-21, 09:38 AM

5/21:

Hurricanes -131 (2u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-23-21, 09:14 AM

5/23
Hurricanes -139 (2u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-24-21, 08:42 PM

5/24:

Jets +105 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-25-21, 07:04 AM

5/21:

Hurricanes -131 (2u)❌ -2.62u

5/23

Hurricanes -139 (2u)❌ -2.78

5/24:

Jets +105 (1u)✅ +1.05u

2021 NHL season: 38-43 -4.11u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 05-25-21, 06:21 PM

NHL:
Hurricanes -200 (1.5u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-26-21, 07:47 AM

Hurricanes -200 (1.5u)✅

2021 NHL season: 39-43 -2.61u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 05-26-21, 05:08 PM

5/26:

Pit/NYI under 1.5 goals 1P (-118) (1u)
Min/Vegas Under 1.5 Goals 1P (-113) (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-27-21, 08:13 PM

NHL:Hurricanes -137 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-28-21, 08:29 AM

5/26:

Pit/NYI under 1.5 goals 1P (-118) (1u)❌
Min/Vegas Under 1.5 Goals 1P (-113) (1u)✅

NHL:Hurricanes -137 (1u)✅

2021 NHL season: 41-44 -1.79u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 05-28-21, 02:48 PM

5/28

knights/wild under 5 +120 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 05-30-21, 07:23 AM

NHL 5/30Tampa ⚡️ +100 (1u)

update: 2021 NHL season: 41-45 -2.79u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 05-31-21, 10:20 AM

NHL 5/30Tampa ⚡️ +100 (1u)✅

update: 2021 NHL season: 42-45 -1.79u❌

**Mr0ctober** · 06-17-21, 05:22 PM

6/17

Tampa -137 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 07-05-21, 05:04 PM

Have this priced right but just think they finish it tonight

tampa -152 (1u)

**Mr0ctober** · 07-28-21, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Mr0ctober

Welcome 2021 NHL going to be an abnormal year in terms of divisions, lack of fans, and game play but none the less should be interesting and fun. Just an FYI for all you new people hockey betting is much like MLB betting. We aren’t betting spreads at and trying to beat a break even point. We are finding value in money lines and backing teams that will win more than there suggested price. All the while capping matchups and goal tenders etc. but going into a game thinking I want to bet this team bc I think they win tonight is not what I’m doing here. The line will determine who to bet.. example I have Pittsburgh -105 tonight vs the flyers . Therefore if the line is Pittsburgh +110 I’m going to back the Penguins. But if I see the line is Pittsburgh -135 I would be much inclined to take the other side and bet the flyers at a nice underdog price.

Hockey is a tough sport to beat. There is extremely high variance especially when only accounting for small sample sizes.. therefore you could cap a season really well and it not end well. Long story short bad bettors could win for an entire season and Vice versa. I guess what I’m getting at is one hockey season really isn’t much in terms of sample size. Also with that being said bankroll management is very important as well. Don’t freak out after a bad week or month. And also don’t over adjust what you know right away. Example if you think I really like the Capitals this year but then they start 0-8 don’t adjust your stance on them and say I was wrong they are horrible without looking why they are 0-8. Are they having bad luck? Are they running into hot goal tenders. Or maybe you were wrong but double check.

All the variance in hockey and MLB is why you see me betting more on season long stuff rather than game by game. Longer sample size... the less variance should show.

Alright enough rambling about hockey betting and approach. I’ll try to write up some this year but usually don’t have the time as I have children and work full time.

hockey 2021 season long plays:

To make the Playoffs:
Pittsburgh Penguins -YES- (-160) (to win 3 units)
Carolina Hurricanes -YES- (-270) (to win 5 units)
Tampa Lightning-YES- (-450) (to win 5 units)
Dallas Stars -NO- (+135) (risking 2 units)

season long point totals:
Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 64.5 pts -118 (to win 2u)
Detroit Redwings OVER 41.5 pts (-120) (to win 2u)
San Jose Sharks UNDER 55.5 pts (-121) (to win 2u)
Vancouver Canucks UNDER 63.5 pts (-110) (to win 2u)
Ottawa Senators UNDER 52.5 (-140) (to win 2u)

PUTTING A RECAP ON THE SEASON
2021 NHL season: 43-46 -2.31u❌ small losing season on the daily plays!

But cleaned up the season long stuff which has always been my strength in all sports.

To make the Playoffs:
Pittsburgh Penguins -YES- (-160) (to win 3 units)✅ +3u
Carolina Hurricanes -YES- (-270) (to win 5 units)✅ +5u
Tampa Lightning-YES- (-450) (to win 5 units)✅ +5u
Dallas Stars -NO- (+135) (risking 2 units)✅ +2.7u

season long point totals:
Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 64.5 pts -118 (to win 2u)✅ +2u
Detroit Redwings OVER 41.5 pts (-120) (to win 2u)✅ +2u
San Jose Sharks UNDER 55.5 pts (-121) (to win 2u)✅ +2u
Vancouver Canucks UNDER 63.5 pts (-110) (to win 2u)✅ +2u
Ottawa Senators UNDER 52.5 (-140) (to win 2u)✅ +2u

Season long Plays 9-0 +25.7u✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅