My Humorous Attempt at Making Picks

[cooperman]

Don't ever worry about your record. going + units is all that matters. Trust your #'s. If you believe in your #'s, then the # of games don't matter. The # of games matter only if you truly have no idea whether you are likely to win or not. It is when you leave out games because you are afraid of a big loss that you end up losing. What ends up happening is you take what you think are your best games and leave off the rest. Of course the lower rated games end up winning. Only you know how confident you are in your #'s.

Best of luck and keep grinding out the winners -

[sedwards86]

Don't ever worry about your record. going + units is all that matters. Trust your #'s. If you believe in your #'s, then the # of games don't matter. The # of games matter only if you truly have no idea whether you are likely to win or not. It is when you leave out games because you are afraid of a big loss that you end up losing. What ends up happening is you take what you think are your best games and leave off the rest. Of course the lower rated games end up winning. Only you know how confident you are in your #'s.

Best of luck and keep grinding out the winners -

I rate this comment 10 out of 10. (Couldn't transfer points to you)

[sedwards86]

My favorite musician is Don Henley. He has an album titled "Building the Perfect Beast," which includes my favorite song, Boys of Summer.
I know, who the hell cares, right? I tell you that because that is my goal. To build the perfect beast, or at least a really badass one. Since starting this, just a week ago, I have written down everything. I've become obsessed with it, which is good for all of us. Today I have dove into each "category" (PL's, totals, etc) that I bet. I have studied to find where I'm good and where I suck. Here's what I've found:

Puck lines
Overall: 11-21. +2.95
Home PL: 8-15. +1.05
Away PL: 3-6. +1.90

Totals
o5.5: 11-4. +9.60
o6: 7-4. +7.45
u5: 3-6. -2.2
u4.5: 2-3. +1.33

I already know that REG bets (60 min, 3 way) are hurting me. I'm abandoning them so I didn't even waste time investigating their results. Learning all of this will hopefully help me hone in on what is profitable and abort what is costing me. Sorry for the long winded post..back to building this beast.

[HoleCamels]

I went back through, It doesn't look like your REG bets are doing that bad from what I see. There were a few spots where you took an underdog to win in regulation and lost cause it went to OT. If you like a dog who is already getting + money in a game just bet them instead of changing it to regulation. Youre still getting +money. Id mostly change favorites to REG + money winners, maybe give that a try and see if it they are more successful.

[sedwards86]

I went back through, It doesn't look like your REG bets are doing that bad from what I see. There were a few spots where you took an underdog to win in regulation and lost cause it went to OT. If you like a dog who is already getting + money in a game just bet them instead of changing it to regulation. Youre still getting +money. Id mostly change favorites to REG + money winners, maybe give that a try and see if it they are more successful.

You've convinced me to study my performance on REG bets. Your point on underdog REGS is well understood and I did consider it when betting. I admit greed was to blame.

[sedwards86]

Here's everything I found.

PL's
Overall: 11-21. +2.95
Home: 8-15. +1.05
Away: 3-6. +1.90
Fave: 8-11. +4.60
Dog: 3-10. -1.65

REG's
Overall: 16-21. +1.25
Home: 11-16. -2.54
Away: 5-5. +3.79
Fave: 10-12. -0.01
Dog: 6-9. +1.26

Totals
o5.5: 11-4. +9.60
o6: 7-4. +7.45
u5: 3-6. -2.20
u4.5: 2-3. +1.33


HoleCamels, you were right. I am + units in REG bets. I need to tighten up on my home REGs. Now I will look closer at those and see how to improve (maybe my probability numbers too close to books). I also got to get better (maybe quit) dog puck lines (reverse puck lines). They are a rush but they're costing me at the moment.

[sedwards86]

I don't make bets until five minutes before game time, but I will go ahead and post this one. If something changes in the next 65 minutes, I'll announce it.

Islanders REG +123
Islanders -1.5 (+220)
Panthers/Islanders o5.5 (+130)

Thomas Greiss is not why the Islanders lost to the shitty Coyotes and Avalanche. He gave up one regulation goal in those two games. Islanders need to score. I'm sure it got emphasized the past couple practices. They got three days rest. Hopefully that helps.

This will be my first game after trying to "weed out" the bad bets. My numbers (barely) see Panthers -1.5 being a bet here. Normally I would bet it, but RPLs are not hitting well for me.

[sedwards86]

Canadiens/Jets o6 (+125)

Tempted on OT +260. I will probably bet .25 unit on it. If I do, I will hedge with Jets REG +125. 4-3 Jets??

[sedwards86]

Capitals REG +133
Caps -1.5 (+243)
Pens/Caps u5 (+155)

[sedwards86]

Sharks/Flames o5.5 (+140)
Sharks/Flames o6 (+185)
Sharks/Flames u4.5 (+190)

I totally deserve a 5 goal game for this shit. Let's see what happens.

[cooperman]

Long way to go, but you are in position to get your 5 goals in the SJ/Cgy

[sedwards86]

1/11

Islanders REG +123 LOSS
Islanders -1.5 (+220) LOSS
Panthers/Islanders o5.5 (+130) LOSS
Canadiens/Jets o6 (+125) WIN
Capitals REG +133 WIN
Caps -1.5 (+243) WIN
Pens/Caps u5 (+155) LOSS
Sharks/Flames o5.5 (+140) LOSS
Sharks/Flames o6 (+185) LOSS
Sharks/Flames u4.5 (+190) LOSS

Today: 3-6. -0.99 units


YTD: 33-45-1. +9.82 units

[sedwards86]

[HoleCamels]

Sharks/Flames o5.5 (+140)
Sharks/Flames o6 (+185)
Sharks/Flames u4.5 (+190)

I totally deserve a 5 goal game for this shit. Let's see what happens.

Hate to say I told you so haha stop bringing 5s to 4.5!! Just pick one total for the game and play it

[sedwards86]

1/12

Canucks/Flyers o5.5 (+130)
Canucks/Flyers o6 (+195)
Penguins REG +101
Sabres +145
Sabres/Lightning o5.5 (+125)
Sabres/Lightning o6 (+170)

[sedwards86]

Hate to say I told you so haha stop bringing 5s to 4.5!! Just pick one total for the game and play it

I will never be doing that again. The reason that I move the 5s to 4.5s is because I'm not paying juice. It's as close to religion as anything I know. I barely like taking +100s. If a u5 is -110, the u4.5 is usually around +190. So I move it. Even if I have something I like 60% and it's -110 (52.4%), I don't play it. Strange, I know. There are times I am tempted to take a 5 and move it to u5.5 (massive juice). My buddy did that two or three years ago and cleaned house.

I'm actually close to being decided on abandoning unders all together. I'm negative units (-1.97) in that area.

[sedwards86]

Wild -1.5 (+180)
Bruins REG +145
Bruins/Preds o5.5 (+155)
Bruins/Preds o6 (+215)
Stars -1.5 (+190)
Stars REG +108
Wings/Stars o5.5 (EVEN)

[sedwards86]

Oilers -1.5 (+150)
Devils/Oilers o5.5 (+165)
Devils/Oilers o6 (+245)
Ducks/Avalanche o5.5 (+125)
Ducks/Avalanche o6 (+175)

[sedwards86]

Kings REG +124
Kings -1.5 (+200)
Blues/Kings o5.5 (+180)

[HoleCamels]

If you don't like paying juice you're pretty much only going to get + money on an u5 in the NHL. Rarely u5.5 or 6 but those are usually games that aren't going to be low scoring anyway. I know those u4.5 are tempting but seriously ditch them. There are some situations where you get nice + money on u5 in good spots but not a ton.

Since you like moving totals around Id move o5s in the right games to o5.5s because you need 6 to win anyway and will get + money. For instance tonights moving Van/Phi to o5.5 for + money was a nice play

[sedwards86]

1/12

Canucks/Flyers o5.5 (+130) WIN
Canucks/Flyers o6 (+195) WIN
Penguins REG +101 LOSS
Sabres +145 LOSS
Sabres/Lightning o5.5 (+125) WIN
Sabres/Lightning o6 (+170) PUSH
Wild -1.5 (+180) WIN
Bruins REG +145 LOSS
Bruins/Preds o5.5 (+155) LOSS
Bruins/Preds o6 (+215) LOSS
Stars -1.5 (+190) WIN
Stars REG +108 WIN
Wings/Stars o5.5 (EVEN) WIN
Oilers -1.5 (+150) LOSS
Devils/Oilers o5.5 (+165) LOSS
Devils/Oilers o6 (+245) LOSS
Ducks/Avalanche o5.5 (+125) LOSS
Ducks/Avalanche o6 (+175) LOSS
Kings REG +124 WIN
Kings -1.5 (+200) WIN
Blues/Kings o5.5 (+180) WIN

Today: 10-10-1.+5.32 units

YTD: 43-55-2. +15.14 units

[sedwards86]

If you don't like paying juice you're pretty much only going to get + money on an u5 in the NHL. Rarely u5.5 or 6 but those are usually games that aren't going to be low scoring anyway. I know those u4.5 are tempting but seriously ditch them. There are some situations where you get nice + money on u5 in good spots but not a ton.

Since you like moving totals around Id move o5s in the right games to o5.5s because you need 6 to win anyway and will get + money. For instance tonights moving Van/Phi to o5.5 for + money was a nice play

I also played VAN/PHI o6 (+190)

I look at the odds for every u4.5, o5.5, o6 and compare their implied probability to my probability of those totals occurring. If o5 or u5 are at + odds, then I compare them too.

I will definitely be laying off unders for one week. I'm going to still document their win/loss results as if I were betting them. If those numbers start to improve, then I will begin betting and posting them again.

I don't want to pretend to have some in-depth probability model that I created. I'm not smart enough to do that. Honestly, how I determine what is a bet or not (for this "system") is so simple that I cannot believe it has worked this far. I hate to deter anyone from trusting the picks that I post, just being honest.

[sedwards86]

I've just figured out one tweak I will be making. Rather than betting one unit on the o5.5 and on the o6, I'm just going to bet two units on the o5.5. That way I avoid the push and if the under hits, I would lose two units anyway.

Back to building...

[sedwards86]

Rangers REG +113
Rangers -1.5 (+210)
Hawks/Caps o5.5 (+155) 1x

NOTE: As I said a few post earlier, I am not posting any unders until I get them on track. However, in every game, I always like either the under or the over. So, if you don't see me post the total to a game, that's a sign that I like the under. I really think one game tonight is going to surprise a lot of people. I also am leaning towards the Hawks winning the other 7:05 game.

[sedwards86]

Islanders/Panthers o5.5 (+125) 2x
Hurricanes -1.5 (+145)
Sabres/Hurricanes o5.5 (+130) 2x

[sedwards86]

Jets/Coyotes o5.5 (+110) 2x
Devils/Flames o5.5 (+120) 1x

[sedwards86]

1/13

Rangers REG +113 LOSS
Rangers -1.5 (+210) LOSS
Hawks/Caps o5.5 (+155) 1x WIN
Islanders/Panthers o5.5 (+125) 2x WIN
Hurricanes -1.5 (+145) WIN
Sabres/Hurricanes o5.5 (+130) 2x WIN
Jets/Coyotes o5.5 (+110) 2x WIN
Devils/Flames o5.5 (+120) 1x LOSS

Today: 5-3. +10.3 units


YTD: 48-58-2. +25.17 units


25.17 units in 11 days.

[sedwards86]

I'm really tempted to start posting the bets where I bet against myself on puck lines in certain instances. If I like both teams' odds to cover the PL, I bet both (against myself). Leafs/Rangers last night is one example. Islanders/Panthers too. I've hit some sick reverse puck lines doing. Ottowa +345 AT HOME vs Pens felt damn good on Thursday.

If they both lose, I'm out 2 units. It's happened four times to me (-8 units). However, as of right now, I've made 23 units doing it. So, that's net 15 units.

We already know it never works on totals. 5 goal game is inevitable.

[sedwards86]

YTD: 48-58-2. +25.17 units



1/14

Flyers +155
Flyers/Bruins o5.5 (+125)

[sedwards86]

Avalanche +125
Avalanche REG +200

[HoleCamels]

I've just figured out one tweak I will be making. Rather than betting one unit on the o5.5 and on the o6, I'm just going to bet two units on the o5.5. That way I avoid the push and if the under hits, I would lose two units anyway.

Back to building...

I was gonna tell you this but didn't want to ruin your fun haha. Keep it up you are doing great.

[sedwards86]

I was gonna tell you this but didn't want to ruin your fun haha. Keep it up you are doing great.

Thanks.

Well, any gambler knows when to lay off. I need tonight off. I might have something for 10:00 games.

[sedwards86]

1-3 yesterday. -1.75 units.

YTD: 49-61-2. +23.42 units


Yesterday I spent time trying to find ways to improve my record. Although I am up units, I would like a better record. I determined it's going to be very hard (near impossible) when I'm taking the "low risk/high reward" bets like I am. I will admit, I got in my head yesterday, so I just laid off for the night. It's good that I did, because I would have sucked badly.

On to a new day:

1/15

Flyers/Caps o5.5 (+120) 1x

[sedwards86]

Flyers +210

[sedwards86]

Devils/Canucks o5 (+100)
Canucks REG+127