My Humorous Attempt at Making Picks

[sedwards86]

I already have one thread that I've started. It's a thread of leans based off of a pattern that I want to track. It is totally independent of this thread. In fact, some picks in this thread may even be opposite of leans in that thread. I'm open to hear about how that is dumb.
Here's an even dumber one for you. Some picks in this thread may go against each other. I'm looking for "value" when making these picks, so if I see a total o5.5 (+185) and then u4.5 (+145) for the same game, I may take them both. I'M NOT JUST TAKING EVERY + BET THAT I SEE! Only if I determine my numbers match the numbers I'm looking for. In that scenario, I will sit back and wait for five goals, so that may hate myself (which I'm good at). But, only one of them occur, I will profit, because they are both + value bets. I'm open to hear about how dumb that is also.
This is just as the title says. An attempt, which will probably turn about bad, by myself, to try something. I don't recommend tailing, unless you just really love betting and don't give a shit. There is a chance this insanity might work, but I'm not expecting it (like Nostradam is expecting Flea's child lol). I really want you two guys to make up.

[sedwards86]

1/3

Oilers/BJs u4.5 (+245)
Leafs REG+208
Leafs/Caps o5.5 (+115)
Devils/Canes o5.5 (+140)
Devils/Canes u4 (+225)
Jets/Lightning u4.5 (+205)
Habs REG+170
Habs/Preds o6(+185)
Kings REG+195
Kings/Sharks o5.5 (+180)
Kings/Sharks u4.5 (+145)

So, if you are an extreme sharp bettor and want to see me get what I deserve, then take five goals in the NJ/CAR game and in the LA/SJ game. That is the middle that will hurt me, so that is likely what will happen. (5 goals has to be the most common outcome, I'm not sure)

[sedwards86]

1/3

Oilers/BJs u4.5 (+245) WIN
Leafs REG+208 LOSS
Leafs/Caps o5.5 (+115) WIN
Devils/Canes o5.5 (+140) LOSS
Devils/Canes u4 (+225) PUSH
Jets/Lightning u4.5 (+205) LOSS
Habs REG+170 LOSS
Habs/Preds o6(+185) LOSS
Kings REG+195 LOSS
Kings/Sharks o5.5 (+180) LOSS
Kings/Sharks u4.5 (+145) WIN

3-7-1. Only -1.95 units in all that madness. I'll give it another go today.

[sedwards86]

1/4

Jets -1.5 (+335) WIN
Jets REG (+204) WIN
Jets/Panthers u4.5 (+210) LOSS
Flyers REG (+128) LOSS
Rangers/Flyers o6 (+130) WIN
Coyotes REG (+190) LOSS

[cooperman]

Every great idea starts out as a goofy one at the start. Good luck finding the holy grail.

[chaka]

[QUOTE/]So, if you are an extreme sharp bettor and want to see me get what I deserve, then take five goals in the NJ/CAR game and in the LA/SJ game. That is the middle that will hurt me, so that is likely what will happen. (5 goals has to be the most common outcome, I'm not sure)[/QUOTE]



there's a reason its called a Polish middle because instead of winning both bets when it hits you lose both..vs picking up tiny chunks when there is no 5. it only takes a couple of 5's in a night to erase many tiny chunks

teams have only been averaging a hair over 5 goals a game for only the last 18 years.. personal opinion but you'll be better off betting on games going to OT..

Some teams play many OT games, others only a few..Some matchups tend to go to OT more than others, its a style of play more than anything.

BOL!

[sedwards86]

[QUOTE/]So, if you are an extreme sharp bettor and want to see me get what I deserve, then take five goals in the NJ/CAR game and in the LA/SJ game. That is the middle that will hurt me, so that is likely what will happen. (5 goals has to be the most common outcome, I'm not sure)

there's a reason its called a Polish middle because instead of winning both bets when it hits you lose both..vs picking up tiny chunks when there is no 5. it only takes a couple of 5's in a night to erase many tiny chunks

teams have only been averaging a hair over 5 goals a game for only the last 18 years.. personal opinion but you'll be better off betting on games going to OT..

Some teams play many OT games, others only a few..Some matchups tend to go to OT more than others, its a style of play more than anything.

BOL![/QUOTE]


Thanks, sir. I appreciate that advice. Everyday when I check covers.com I do notice there are some teams who have like six OT games in their last ten games. I'm going to start looking more closely at that. Once again, thanks.

[sedwards86]

1/4

Jets -1.5 (+335) WIN
Jets REG (+204) WIN
Jets/Panthers u4.5 (+210) LOSS
Flyers REG (+128) LOSS
Rangers/Flyers o6 (+130) WIN
Coyotes REG (+190) LOSS

3-3 last night for +3.69 units.

6-10-1 overall with +1.74 units.

[HoleCamels]

I don't think betting u4.5 and o5.5 on the same game will work long term with the amount of 5's that nhl games land on.

Not a bad idea to move an o5 to o5.5 bc you need 6 to win anyway so you get +money when you are right but I wouldn't move off the 5 to 4.5 because that 5 push will save you more times than not. You essentially need a 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1 game late because the empty net or tying goals push a 3-1, 2-1, 4-0 games to 5 all the time and you will lose.

Same thing with moving an u5.5 to u5. Hitting that 5 will happen a lot so if you move it down you will get higher odds but push alot of times you shouldve won

[sedwards86]

I'm gonna get these out here while I wait on some things for the two 10:30 games...

1/5
Blue Jackets +110 LOSS
BJs/Caps o5.5 (+125) LOSS
Bruins -1.5 (+190) LOSS
Oilers/Bruins u5 (Even) LOSS
Hurricanes-1.5 (+333) WIN
Hurricanes +115 WIN

(I didn't take the Canes REG because that way if they only win in OT, the +115 will pay for my -1.5 loss (one unit).

Adding:
Kings -1.5 (+130) LOSS
Wild/Sharks o5 (Even) WIN

[sedwards86]

I'm gonna get these out here while I wait on some things for the two 10:30 games...

1/5
Blue Jackets +110 LOSS
BJs/Caps o5.5 (+125) LOSS
Bruins -1.5 (+190) LOSS
Oilers/Bruins u5 (Even) LOSS
Hurricanes-1.5 (+333) WIN
Hurricanes +115 WIN

(I didn't take the Canes REG because that way if they only win in OT, the +115 will pay for my -1.5 loss (one unit).

Adding:
Kings -1.5 (+130) LOSS
Wild/Sharks o5 (Even) WIN

3-5 last night for +0.48 unit won. I'm happy to have stayed above water after the Blue Jackets letdown. I felt good about the Bruins, but just knew the Kings would let me down. The Canes -1.5 was a big shock when I stumbled across it. That's my home team and I never expect much from them, other than losing in OT


YTD: 9-15-1. +2.22 units

Yes I've really won units with that ugly record. That's the biggest benefit of only taking + odd bets, which is all I take. I'm all about being positive, not negative.
I haven't been selective enough with my bets. That's the reason for the losing record. I've not included starting goalies and their career performance against who they are playing that night. That starts today. (Side note: Cam Ward owns the Blues. Blackhawks too. I know..crazy)

[sedwards86]

YTD: 9-15-1. +2.22 units

I will most definitely have some stuff for today. It will always be later for me before I post picks. Gotta crunch numbers (during lunch break) and watch lines throughout the day.


Potential plays: Calgary/Vancouver game looks to be a two goal game. Both teams are +250 or more for -1.5. Might "bet against myself" and hope to hit one. Might play Canes ML and REG tonight.

[sedwards86]

Tonight is going to be tough.

1/6
Leafs/Devils u5 (+120)
Islanders REG +119
Blackhawks REG +113
Canes/Hawks OT +290

[sedwards86]

I don't think betting u4.5 and o5.5 on the same game will work long term with the amount of 5's that nhl games land on.

Not a bad idea to move an o5 to o5.5 bc you need 6 to win anyway so you get +money when you are right but I wouldn't move off the 5 to 4.5 because that 5 push will save you more times than not. You essentially need a 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1 game late because the empty net or tying goals push a 3-1, 2-1, 4-0 games to 5 all the time and you will lose.

Same thing with moving an u5.5 to u5. Hitting that 5 will happen a lot so if you move it down you will get higher odds but push alot of times you shouldve won

Thank you, sir. Wise words that I will surely apply. Tried to transfer points but was told you could not receive them...

[sedwards86]

Tonight is going to be tough.

1/6
Leafs/Devils u5 (+120) LOSS
Islanders REG +119 LOSS
Blackhawks REG +113 WIN
Canes/Hawks OT +290 LOSS

I should have just sat last night out.

YTD: 10-18-1. +0.35 units


Hopefully tonight will be better

[sedwards86]

1/7

Jets -1.5 (+245)
Lightning REG +165
Kings REG +134
Wild/Kings o5.5 +165

More to come..waiting on goalie confirmations

[sedwards86]

Devils +115
Canadiens/Leafs o6 +125
Bruins -1.5 (+195)
Coyotes +110
Blues REG +108

[sedwards86]

1/7

Jets -1.5 (+245) LOSS
Lightning REG +165 LOSS
Kings REG +134 LOSS
Wild/Kings o5.5 +165 WIN
Devils +115 LOSS
Canadiens/Leafs o6 +125 WIN
Bruins -1.5 (+195) WIN
Coyotes +110 WIN
Blues REG +108 WIN

Today: 5-4. +3.03 units

YTD: 15-22-1. +3.38 units

[sedwards86]

YTD: 15-22-1. +3.38 units

I have a lot of things I'm looking at today. Something in each game probably. I'm just OCD about watching line movement. So it will be around thirty minutes before each game before I post.

I will go ahead and post Blackhawks REG +111. Don't want to wait to long. Could drop closer to even. Strongly considering Hawks-1.5 and over 6 goals in that one.

[sedwards86]

1/8

Penguins -1.5 (+110)
Lightning/Pens u5.5 (+105)
Lightning/Pens u5 (+195)
Hurricanes -1.5 (+210)
Hurricanes REG +120
Bruins/Canes o6 (+190)
Blackhawks REG +111

SCREW THE CANES

[sedwards86]

1/8
Flyers +140
Flyers/Jackets u5 (+165)
Flyers/Jackets u4.5 (+253)

[sedwards86]

1/8

Blackhawks -1.5 (+190)
Preds/Hawks o5.5 (+135)
Preds/Hawks o6 (+195)
Oilers/Senators o5.5 (+115)

[sedwards86]

1/8
Penguins -1.5 (+110) WIN
Lightning/Pens u5.5 (+105) LOSS
Lightning/Pens u5 (+195) LOSS
Hurricanes -1.5 (+210) LOSS
Hurricanes REG +120 LOSS
Bruins/Canes o6 (+190) WIN
Blackhawks REG +111 WIN
Flyers +140 LOSS
Flyers/Jackets u5 (+165) WIN
Flyers/Jackets u4.5 (+253) WIN
Blackhawks -1.5 (+190) WIN
Preds/Hawks o5.5 (+135) WIN
Preds/Hawks o6 (+195) WIN
Oilers/Senators o5.5 (+115) WIN

Today :9-5. +9.64 units

YTD: 24-27-1. +13.02 units

[sedwards86]

YTD: 24-27-1. +13.02 units

Today will be interesting to say the least. In one game (Caps/Habs), I will be betting against myself. My hope is that out of the two 250+ bets I take, one hits and then I profit. I usually wait until later, but I will try differently today.

1/9
Devils REG +127
Capitals -1.5 (+295)
Capitals REG +171
Canadiens -1.5 (+255)
Canadiens REG +139
Flames/Jets o5.5 (+115)
Flames/Jets o6 (+145)
Flames/Jets Overtime (+280)
Kings -1.5 (+180)
Kings REG +108
Stars/Kings o5.5 (+105)

Stars/Kings o6 will likely be a play. Just waiting for 5 Dimes...

And there it is, +175. I'll take it.

[sedwards86]

1/9
Devils REG +127 LOSS
Capitals -1.5 (+295) WIN
Capitals REG +171 WIN
Canadiens -1.5 (+255) LOSS
Canadiens REG +139 LOSS
Flames/Jets o5.5 (+115) LOSS
Flames/Jets o6 (+145) LOSS
Flames/Jets Overtime (+280) LOSS
Kings -1.5 (+180) LOSS
Kings REG LOSS
Stars/Kings o5.5 (+105) WIN
Stars/Kings o6 (+175) WIN

A whopping 4-8 with -.54 units lost.

YTD: 28-35-1. +12.48 units.

[sedwards86]

Well, I've looked over everything for tonight and I have a problem. I have way too many things that qualify to be bet. Like almost twenty. I like betting 5% of my bankroll per unit, and that will leave all of my bankroll in the hands of the books, which is not happening. So today, I will rely on line movement and I will be extremely selective in my choices. There are a couple of lines that are heavily moving in my favor..

[sedwards86]

1/10

Flyers/Sabres u5 (+115)
Hurricanes REG +126
Canucks/Preds o5.5 (+135)
Wings/Hawks u4.5 (+178)
Blackhawks -1.5 (+165)

[HoleCamels]

Well, I've looked over everything for tonight and I have a problem. I have way too many things that qualify to be bet. Like almost twenty. I like betting 5% of my bankroll per unit, and that will leave all of my bankroll in the hands of the books, which is not happening. So today, I will rely on line movement and I will be extremely selective in my choices. There are a couple of lines that are heavily moving in my favor..

Smart to be more selective. 20 plays is way too much volume itll kill you eventually

[sedwards86]

Sharks/Oilers u4.5 (+180)
Ducks REG +107

[Slanina]

Get that paper!

[sedwards86]

1/10

Flyers/Sabres u5 (+115) PUSH
Hurricanes REG +126 WIN
Canucks/Preds o5.5 (+135) LOSS
Wings/Hawks u4.5 (+178) LOSS
Blackhawks -1.5 (+165) LOSS
Sharks/Oilers u4.5 (+180) LOSS
Ducks REG +107 WIN

2-4-1. -1.67 units.

YTD: 30-39-1. +10.81 units

[sedwards86]

Wow, so I kept up with everything I liked yesterday. I would have gone
12-17 but +3.85 units.

My PL's and Totals are doing well. I'm officially done with the regulation bets. They are sucking badly.

[Flea Hotel]

Keep on grinding Sedwards!

[sedwards86]

Smart to be more selective. 20 plays is way too much volume itll kill you eventually

That's definitely true.

[sedwards86]

Keep on grinding Sedwards!

Thanks, man.