Opening night best pick (first game) Is Ottawa priced right at -130 @ home? YES

[TimeTraveler75]

Looking over the lines this morning, the first game really stood out at me, looking at the angles, Ottawa should be a solid -170 at home, at the current price, they are at -130 (Bovada) with this being their first game and at home this is easily the best play on the board tonight when it comes to value. As of now, the public is hitting Ottawa hard, both the run line and money line 94/74 (pregame) com... Although it's not generating a lot of bets per se, the oddsmakers want to start off strong with every league since the day it opens lines for that sport, hence lowering the line for this specific game to attract more bets for Toronto, for some reason people think a low favorite never wins and take the underdog. I think taking Ottawa here at home to win is the bet on the board tonight. I'm looking forward to this NHL season, hopefully a winning one. Good luck guys

Opening line -165 Ottawa (Bookmaker)

Current line -130 (Bovada)

Expected closing -125

Public bets (current): Ottawa; Runline 94% , Money Line 74%

Toronto; Runline 6% , Money Line 26%

Over/Under; Over 77% , Under 23%

[ZdenoK]

They know public will hammer Ottawa hard so why give them such good odds then? It will only attract more people to bet on them rather than people think Toronto has too good odds for being such underdog.

[TimeTraveler75]

They know public will hammer Ottawa hard so why give them such good odds then? It will only attract more people to bet on them rather than people think Toronto has too good odds for being such underdog.

It's simple, books say "they always want to balance the action" this isn't always the case, take notice, when the public is hitting a team hard and the books aren't adjusting the lines then it's a big flag, this is seen over and over again, they know the other team has the advantage and take in all the bets from the loaded side. In this case, it's Ottawa which should really be a -170 at home, books ARE adjusting to really balance out the action to not take a potentially major hit with the loaded side. Of course it doesn't mean it's a guaranteed winner, just know that they know where the true odds are and they only adjust when they feel that the odds go in a certain way. In this case, dropping it to attract more for the other side, we see this all the time, a line has a huge drop for the favorite and they end up winning easily. They know how to manage it.

[ZdenoK]

It's simple, books say "they always want to balance the action" this isn't always the case, take notice, when the public is hitting a team hard and the books aren't adjusting the lines then it's a big flag, this is seen over and over again, they know the other team has the advantage and take in all the bets from the loaded side. In this case, it's Ottawa which should really be a -170 at home, books ARE adjusting to really balance out the action to not take a potentially major hit with the loaded side. Of course it doesn't mean it's a guaranteed winner, just know that they know where the true odds are and they only adjust when they feel that the odds go in a certain way. In this case, dropping it to attract more for the other side, we see this all the time, a line has a huge drop for the favorite and they end up winning easily. They know how to manage it.

Or raising it to attract even more on the losing side heavy public favorite?