I think I found a good spot!

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  • TheDonger
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-16-13
    • 352

    #1
    I think I found a good spot!
    Not alot of bookie offer the following : Bet over/under the time of first goal. 10bet the one I use atm, has these weird lines and I think there is soooo much value in them. You can basically bet for every game U9.5 min. or O9.5 min. Every lines is

    -105 or -110 for O9.5
    and
    -140 for U9.5

    Regardless of the game. Sometime the Over gets even better with +100 or even +105 but that is very rare. Why do I think there is alot of value here ?

    1- Usually the lines for O/U in the first period are for 1.5 goals. Most of the times, you pay more juice U1.5 which means 2 goals or more in the first period = the underdog. Going for O9.5min. is essentially means that you get U2 (20minutes/2 = 10/goal).

    2- The first period is the one with the less goals. This is a fact! Some team (AKA Buffalo) have scored as low as 4 goals in 20 games in the first period. Since usualy you can bet U/O 5.5 total. That means that a bookie, take pinnacle, expect that there should be more or less 1 goal every 10 minutes.

    3- Since they have all the same odd (or close to), it's so easy to pick a good spot. I just go to pinnacle (since they have the sharpest lines) and select all the one with the most juice. Let's take tonight as an example :



    Then you compare it to 10bet O/U 9.5


    And BANG! Just like that you get some great awesome spot!!! Look at that LA/NJ line. On one side you have the sharpest bookie telling you that there is -153 that there should be NOT EVEN 1.5 goal in that period. On the other side, you have 10bet, a D rated bookie that thinks there should be 1 goal in the first 10 minutes... no sorry 9min30sec (that average 2.x goal in the period).

    I hope that you guys can take advantage of this, it has great value. One last thing I've asked multiple times for more competitive lines in their support and they always deliver. I always say something like "I think that there is a mistake with X line, I wanted to bet on it but I feel like there is way much juice, could you take a look at it" and they deliver (although this is true most of the time, sometime the juice is way too high). Today I got the BOS/STL down from -130 to -120.

    Hope you guys can take advantage of this spot!

    BOL tonight!

    EDIT: I made a mistake in my example, not the SJ/TP but LA/NJ
  • TheDonger
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-16-13
    • 352

    #2
    I think I'll post here my plays and look what we get . I'll start by laying out some simple rules for the system and will tweak it if it ends up working:

    - If playing the dog bet 1 unit
    - Else, bet whatever to win 1 unit
    - Bet only when I have 25 points + advantage.
    - Always bet on the over

    Tonights play :
    BOS/STL -120
    DAL/NYR -115
    PHI/BUF -110
    LAK/NJD -110
    Comment
    • fitguy67
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-13-11
      • 5082

      #3
      Originally posted by TheDonger

      Tonights play :
      BOS/STL -120
      DAL/NYR -115
      PHI/BUF -110
      LAK/NJD -110
      Donger, can you elaborate exactly what the bet is on these games...does it relate to the "arbitrage" or "middling" opportunity you seem to be talking about in post #1...or are these separate "spot" plays...if so, you don't specify which side of the game to bet on...
      Comment
      • TheDonger
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-16-13
        • 352

        #4
        Sorry, I think I didn't explain enough what the best is about. The play is pretty straight forward. Will the first goal happen before or after the 9m30 mark. I bet Over 9m30 since I defiantly beleive that these lines are simply wrong.

        I take Pinnalce as my base since I think their lines are the sharpest. That means that they are as close to reality as you can get. Taking the U1.5 lines gives me an idea about the odds of having 1 goal or less in the first 20 minutes. The lines that 10bet offer are telling us that they "expect" that most of the time 1 goal will happen in the first 10 minutes which gives us an average of 1 goal per 10 minutes or 2 goals per period. I am betting agains't that where I see that pinnacle gives the U1.5 as the big favorite.

        Sorry if I don't explain it well my native language is not english. Do you understand better ? I think that I will edit my initial post to explain better and ask some of my friends to help me structure my sentences so that it is more clear.
        Comment
        • ZdenoK
          SBR MVP
          • 03-25-13
          • 1741

          #5
          Looking very good, I have been looking into same thing yesterday with line under/over 10 min mark at betcityru (not in comparison with Pinnacle though - good idea!). You have explained it well, I'm not a native English speaker and I understood perfectly. Cheers.
          Comment
          • TheDonger
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-16-13
            • 352

            #6
            I'm not going to lie, I didn't pick exactly what I said

            I took these picks and combo them in 2 team parlay to cover all possibilities + I added another parlay 4 picks together. I don't suggest that you do this, I just felt like gambling. It might turn out to be a crazy good idea. So far I'm 2-0. I think that I'd win something like 30 unit if I hit it!!

            Again, I'd never suggest you do this, I shouldn't have done it myself. The main reason is that I have to do a rollover and any play that are O/U do not count toward the rollover amount unless I put them in a parlay!

            Comment
            • TheDonger
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-16-13
              • 352

              #7
              Originally posted by ZdenoK
              Looking very good, I have been looking into same thing yesterday with line under/over 10 min mark at betcityru (not in comparison with Pinnacle though - good idea!). You have explained it well, I'm not a native English speaker and I understood perfectly. Cheers.
              Oh nice, welcome aboard!

              Thanks for reassuring about my english, wasn't too sure. I know that I have a decent english but my writing skills is my weak point. Thank you also about the betcityru I didn't know other bookies had that. I'll take a look for sure (I'm also in the process bonus whoring so I hope they have a good one )
              Comment
              • ZdenoK
                SBR MVP
                • 03-25-13
                • 1741

                #8
                Originally posted by TheDonger
                Oh nice, welcome aboard!

                Thanks for reassuring about my english, wasn't too sure. I know that I have a decent english but my writing skills is my weak point. Thank you also about the betcityru I didn't know other bookies had that. I'll take a look for sure (I'm also in the process bonus whoring so I hope they have a good one )
                MarathonBet also offers 1st goal u/o 9 minutes the only problem is they limit your account to ridiculously small limits if you win too much.
                Comment
                • TheDonger
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-16-13
                  • 352

                  #9
                  Everyone channel for my last pick! Will make or break my night !! ~~~~ channel ~~~~~
                  Comment
                  • TheDonger
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-16-13
                    • 352

                    #10
                    11/21/2013

                    3-1 for the day
                    BOS/STL -120 + 1.00
                    DAL/NYR -115 -1.15
                    PHI/BUF -110 + 1.00
                    LAK/NJD -110 + 1.00

                    Total for today : +1.85U

                    We obviously can't get excited as this is only our first day and this "system" has no backtest. Time will tell if it's successful. If anyone knows other bookies where this kind of line (O/U 9.5 first goal of game) please let me know.
                    Comment
                    • fitguy67
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-13-11
                      • 5082

                      #11
                      what (and at what book, Pinny or 10-bet...i have'm both, and tend to like fairly-automatic plays determined by the lines themselves, like this...so i'm quite keen to understand)

                      i THINK the above 4 plays are all placed at 10bet...To NOT Score during First 9.5Minutes, based on taking the ones that have the highest chalk on the "1P, under 1.5 goals" line (implying less than 2 goals more likely than 2-plus goal...implying that a goal in the first half of the period is less likely than the fairly-balanced (-110/-110 or thereabouts for the Yes/No proposition at 10-bet)...so we let Pinny's razor-sharp odds do the "thinking" for us...and take the NO on the "close to coin-flip" odds given at 10-bet on the Score First 9.5minutes proposition...

                      I had no clue when i started typing ths post...but now...damn, i think i've got it...

                      let's walk thru it tomorrow again, shall we?...same time, same place
                      Comment
                      • ZdenoK
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-25-13
                        • 1741

                        #12
                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                        what (and at what book, Pinny or 10-bet...i have'm both, and tend to like fairly-automatic plays determined by the lines themselves, like this...so i'm quite keen to understand)

                        i THINK the above 4 plays are all placed at 10bet...To NOT Score during First 9.5Minutes, based on taking the ones that have the highest chalk on the "1P, under 1.5 goals" line (implying less than 2 goals more likely than 2-plus goal...implying that a goal in the first half of the period is less likely than the fairly-balanced (-110/-110 or thereabouts for the Yes/No proposition at 10-bet)...so we let Pinny's razor-sharp odds do the "thinking" for us...and take the NO on the "close to coin-flip" odds given at 10-bet on the Score First 9.5minutes proposition...

                        I had no clue when i started typing ths post...but now...damn, i think i've got it...

                        let's walk thru it tomorrow again, shall we?...same time, same place
                        Yes, it's the same thing he wrote in the first post.
                        Comment
                        • TheDonger
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 11-16-13
                          • 352

                          #13
                          Originally posted by fitguy67
                          what (and at what book, Pinny or 10-bet...i have'm both, and tend to like fairly-automatic plays determined by the lines themselves, like this...so i'm quite keen to understand)

                          i THINK the above 4 plays are all placed at 10bet...To NOT Score during First 9.5Minutes, based on taking the ones that have the highest chalk on the "1P, under 1.5 goals" line (implying less than 2 goals more likely than 2-plus goal...implying that a goal in the first half of the period is less likely than the fairly-balanced (-110/-110 or thereabouts for the Yes/No proposition at 10-bet)...so we let Pinny's razor-sharp odds do the "thinking" for us...and take the NO on the "close to coin-flip" odds given at 10-bet on the Score First 9.5minutes proposition...

                          I had no clue when i started typing ths post...but now...damn, i think i've got it...

                          let's walk thru it tomorrow again, shall we?...same time, same place
                          Exactly Everything you say is 100% what I'm trying to explain.

                          In a pure math perspective, I think this should be a profitable system. Hopefully I'm not forgetting any variable.
                          Comment
                          • TheDonger
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-16-13
                            • 352

                            #14
                            We only have 1 play tonight :

                            VAN/CBJ 1.05 to win 1
                            Comment
                            • tombuckers
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-24-12
                              • 1319

                              #15
                              Like the idea and like the play today too but for my bookies its -133 for goal after 9 minutes have expired. So not amazing value.
                              Comment
                              • Giz
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-06-13
                                • 1703

                                #16
                                I really like a goal in the first 10 mins canucks/blue jackets so your spot on there! BOL
                                Comment
                                • TheDonger
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-16-13
                                  • 352

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by tombuckers
                                  Like the idea and like the play today too but for my bookies its -133 for goal after 9 minutes have expired. So not amazing value.
                                  1- Can I know what bookie you use ?
                                  2- Don't be afraid to use your bookie support. You tell them you would really enjoy placing a bet there but you feel like 60 points for a 50/50 situation is way too much for you to buy action. Each time I have ask that they reduce the lines, they agreed when the juice was +- 60 points. They dropped it to as low as 30 points. I have asked 4 times so far and I even realize that since 2 days I don't have to ask, they have much more "accurate" (-105/-145) lines.
                                  Comment
                                  • TheDonger
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-16-13
                                    • 352

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Giz
                                    I really like a goal in the first 10 mins canucks/blue jackets so your spot on there! BOL
                                    Hum, I think you misread my bet. I'm betting "Over" not "Under" 9.5 min. for the first goal. BOL thought
                                    Comment
                                    • fitguy67
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-13-11
                                      • 5082

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by TheDonger
                                      Hum, I think you misread my bet. I'm betting "Over" not "Under" 9.5 min. for the first goal. BOL thought
                                      I THINK Giz was making a joke that becuz he likes the under here...our over is more likely (cuz he's been having bad luck...and whatever play he likes is more likely to lose)...

                                      if you weren't joking , Giz...read the second paragraph of post #11 above carefully...it's not the simplest thing to understand at first...but it's actually a brilliant approach Donger has come up with here!
                                      Comment
                                      • Giz
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-06-13
                                        • 1703

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by TheDonger
                                        Hum, I think you misread my bet. I'm betting "Over" not "Under" 9.5 min. for the first goal. BOL thought
                                        oh crap my bad hope you win ur bet i have canucks to win 1st period so hope they score after 9.5 mins but i do have that sneaky feeling theres a goal early in this match up.
                                        Comment
                                        • fitguy67
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-13-11
                                          • 5082

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Giz
                                          oh crap my bad hope you win ur bet i have canucks to win 1st period so hope they score after 9.5 mins but i do have that sneaky feeling theres a goal early in this match up.
                                          thanks for "blessing" our bet, Giz (and we'll interpret "early" to mean as early as 9:31)
                                          Comment
                                          • TheDonger
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-16-13
                                            • 352

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by fitguy67
                                            I THINK Giz was making a joke that becuz he likes the under here...our over is more likely (cuz he's been having bad luck...and whatever play he likes is more likely to lose)...

                                            if you weren't joking , Giz...read the second paragraph of post #11 above carefully...it's not the simplest thing to understand at first...but it's actually a brilliant approach Donger has come up with here!
                                            <3 thx appreciate, let's just hope this translate into some $$$

                                            Anyway I have like 15 bets tonight across NHL NBA NCAAB XD Hope that it turns out to be a great evening
                                            Comment
                                            • Giz
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-06-13
                                              • 1703

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by fitguy67
                                              thanks for "blessing" our bet, Giz (and we'll interpret "early" to mean as early as 9:31)
                                              hope so but im starting to gain my stride in nhl so i might not be fade material unlike soccer
                                              Comment
                                              • fitguy67
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-13-11
                                                • 5082

                                                #24
                                                Donger...what's XD?
                                                Comment
                                                • TheDonger
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-16-13
                                                  • 352

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                  Donger...what's XD?
                                                  Just a smiley!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheDonger
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-16-13
                                                    • 352

                                                    #26
                                                    11/22/2013

                                                    0-1 for the day
                                                    CBJ/VAN -1.05

                                                    Total for today: -1.05
                                                    Total for system: +0.80U

                                                    Comment
                                                    • Giz
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-06-13
                                                      • 1703

                                                      #27
                                                      sry
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by TheDonger
                                                        Just a smiley!
                                                        oh...XD = an Asian Smiley!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TheDonger
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-16-13
                                                          • 352

                                                          #29
                                                          We have 2 plays tonight :

                                                          MTL/PIT 1.1 to win 1
                                                          SJ/NJ 1.05 to win 1
                                                          Comment
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