since 93, series 2-0

a4u2fear · 05-05-13, 08:08 AM

148 occurrences over 20 years of teams/scenarios/different NHL style plays

amarius87 · 05-05-13, 08:11 AM

van and wild will probably win one game out of the two. a good play would be to chase them. for the two games

a4u2fear · 05-05-13, 05:19 PM

Minnesota another winner

Aaron McCrevice · 05-05-13, 06:53 PM

I'm guessing average price of the 0-2 team during that stretch is around -120......or at least in some unprofitable range

any info on that?

a4u2fear · 05-05-13, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by Aaron McCrevice

I'm guessing average price of the 0-2 team during that stretch is around -120......or at least in some unprofitable range

any info on that?

i don't know but I'm thinking you are quite off on price. Min was +145 and the Canucks are +125. I do t know many teams that are down 2-0 and still a favorite, or come even close to being -120 over 138 occurrences

Aaron McCrevice · 05-05-13, 07:21 PM

Think about it man, down 0-2 coming home for game 3 is the most common scenario. That means the 0-2 team is a small home favorite on average, hence the 51% win rate. Teams aren't winning 51% of the time at +125 and +150....I can guarantee you that.

a4u2fear · 05-05-13, 07:38 PM

I have line history till 07 so I will check tomorrow but still the line you are suggesting doesn't fly with me.

I know the line won't always be +130 or so. But we don't care. If you know it's hitting at a rate of X and you know the price, you bet accordingly like I suggested here. Notice the Kings were not a part of this thread because they were -145 or something yesterday.

I assume most of the money would come in on a team that is a dog and is up in the series 2-0, even on the road.

I will check the odds and update tomorrow

PuckIt · 05-05-13, 08:09 PM

where these stats coming from?

a4u2fear · 05-06-13, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by PuckIt

where these stats coming from?

Me.

Kpn · 05-06-13, 11:07 AM

I got burned hard on Vancouver, is it worth chasing or are they just too shitty to compete?

a4u2fear · 05-06-13, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Kpn

I got burned hard on Vancouver, is it worth chasing or are they just too shitty to compete?

Don't lay a penny on them. They haven't looked competent in the playoffs in a while

mrginandtonic · 05-06-13, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

i don't know but I'm thinking you are quite off on price. Min was +145 and the Canucks are +125. I do t know many teams that are down 2-0 and still a favorite, or come even close to being -120 over 138 occurrences

the Rangers are down 0-2, and they favor tonight @ -143 currently at Pinny. Do you think it is worth playing?? I personally like the Capitals to win the series. They have been playing so well. I am thinking about chasing Washington instead. I know DG is on the Rangers, but.....

a4u2fear · 05-06-13, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

the Rangers are down 0-2, and they favor tonight @ -143 currently at Pinny. Do you think it is worth playing?? I personally like the Capitals to win the series. They have been playing so well. I am thinking about chasing Washington instead. I know DG is on the Rangers, but.....

Sir, the team down 0-2 wins 51.4% of the time. The rangers at -143, need to win at a rate of 143/(100+143)=58.9% to break even. If you make this bet and assume the situations are equal, you're setting yourself up for a bet that will lose at about a 7% rate over many bets and time.

Now, are the capitals worth a bet? They are at +125. To break even, 100/(100+125)=44%. You know that the team up 2-0 wins 48.6% of the time, so betting the caps you will have about a 4.5% edge over time, or over a long run of bets and time, +4.5% if the trend continues. After 20 years of data, many different teams, many different styles of NHL games played, I'd like it.

Aaron McCrevice · 05-07-13, 12:03 AM

you're doing it wrong