if you were only allowed to place one type of bet to save your life..?

[rahyde88]

what is typically the most profitable type of bet is what i am trying to get out of this question. aka of you had to focus all your energy on getting really good at find +EV for one type of wager, what would it be and what is the best resource for learning about said type of bet?

-prop bet (more specifically is there one type that typically is better or one sport)
-nfl/ncaa football (over/under, money line, line etc..)
-mlb (run line, adjusted run line, ml, 1st 5 innings, total, individual team total etc..)

you get the point

[jgilmartin]

If you only care about the biggest edge, and not how much you can get down, whatever has the lowest limit. So I guess 4th division Hungarian futsal.

[rsigley]

if you only had to bet one bet owuldn't you just take a -40000 ML favorite in NCAAF which might not have +EV but will have the highest win probability?

[rahyde88]

yes -40000 ml has a very high win rate, but also a high rate of catastrophic fail, IE lose $40,000. if you fall on the wrong side of standard deviation and your third bet is the 1-400 that the team can potentially lose, you are out a lot of money. also the majority of people dont have $200,000 to wager to win $500. i am looking for what bet (also not of some weird Euro sport) has the best win rate, for the lowest amount of risk, that would have the fastest chance of building a $1000 roll up to $10,000. i am looking for where i should foucus my time on handicapping. i am looking for only baseball or football because it is obviously not basketball season right now. i assume its a prop bet, but is there certin ones that are typically the best to focus on. also what material would be the best to read up on beating said bet on a consistant basis?
thanks for any help guys

[rsigley]

but it says to save your life

you lose the same regardless if you lose a -40000 ML or -100 your life

[rahyde88]

LOL i know it says to save your life.. i was just using that to catch peoples attention. this is what i am looking for (see last post)

yes -40000 ml has a very high win rate, but also a high rate of catastrophic fail, IE lose $40,000. if you fall on the wrong side of standard deviation and your third bet is the 1-400 that the team can potentially lose, you are out a lot of money. also the majority of people dont have $200,000 to wager to win $500. i am looking for what bet (also not of some weird Euro sport) has the best win rate, for the lowest amount of risk, that would have the fastest chance of building a $1000 roll up to $10,000. i am looking for where i should foucus my time on handicapping. i am looking for only baseball or football because it is obviously not basketball season right now. i assume its a prop bet, but is there certin ones that are typically the best to focus on. also what material would be the best to read up on beating said bet on a consistant basis?
thanks for any help guys

[AlwaysDrawing]

My recommendation for you is the self-fade.

[Inspirited]

in before busto

[Told You So!]

A late November/December over for NFL for two consistant solid teams playing each other that are fully healthy and are known for offense...

[Brock Windsor]

Low risk on a 1k bank, use bonuses and free play to get to 10k. While your building it up look for sites with soft/slow lines or that allow CP's and build up a database and learn how to cap. If you want to focus on 1 form of handicapping for life, horse bettors make the most money according to Richard Munchkin.

[a4u2fear]

It would make zero sense to go All in on a -40000, cuz do you really need to be 40k o save your life to get 1k?

[Cicima6709]

Easily a prop bet. Can easily find bets everyday with -300 value but -150 price.

[mathdotcom]

Ugh

[xpo276]

id make the bet that the pacman-mayweather fight never happens.

[MendozaLine]

not possible.

My recommendation for you is the self-fade.

[andywend]

what is typically the most profitable type of bet is what i am trying to get out of this question. aka of you had to focus all your energy on getting really good at find +EV for one type of wager, what would it be and what is the best resource for learning about said type of bet?

-prop bet (more specifically is there one type that typically is better or one sport)
-nfl/ncaa football (over/under, money line, line etc..)
-mlb (run line, adjusted run line, ml, 1st 5 innings, total, individual team total etc..)

you get the point

Rahyde88, I believe I have the answer to the question you're trying to ask.

The absolute best betting opportunities come in week 17 of the NFL and during the final 2 days of the NBA season when teams that have already made the playoffs decide to rest all of their 1st string players.

Oddsmakers can't posssibly set lines high enough and you should always bet AGAINST the playoff bound teams resting their players when playing against a team that has already been eliminated from the playoffs.

During the NBA last year, the Miami Heat played against the hapless Detroit Pistons on the final day of the regular season and the line opened up Detroit -5 (when the real line would be Miami -10 at any other point in the season). The line moved from Detroit -5 to Detroit -10 and Detroit won by 30.

There were 4 or 5 games that fit this scenario and all of the non-playoff teams won and covered their spreads easily. Same thing happens in the NFL during week 17.

Save as much of your bankroll as possible and wait for these rare opportunities and unload on those games.

[statnerds]

Ugh

agreed

[hutennis]

Oddsmakers can't posssibly set lines high enough

What stops them?

[LVHerbie]

In your imagined world are we allowed to bet everyday on one-off events without limit restrictions? If so Canadian Parliamental Boxing is the easy winner...

[mr.inpak]

bridge jumping at the race track a one shot deal on a 1-9 shot 5% return on your money in 2 minutes