Fading your own model?
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allin1SBR MVP
- 11-07-11
- 4555
#36Comment -
rsigleySBR Sharp
- 02-23-08
- 304
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rsigleySBR Sharp
- 02-23-08
- 304
#39his book was
input data -> traditional linear regression to directly predict one variable (univariate) in excel -> faulty inferences
so was the book a lie? i assume the book was just a disguised commercial for BetUS, but was the book advance from BetUS so much a book of lies was also put out?Last edited by rsigley; 06-12-12, 10:19 AM. Reason: switched know to assume to avoid being sued for slander since it was threatened before for quoting the bookComment -
evo34SBR MVP
- 11-09-08
- 1032
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allin1SBR MVP
- 11-07-11
- 4555
#42pimco has quite a few, but I don't know why are you asking about "large teams". why the extreme? though I would say that one analyst would be more extreme for any big hedge fund. of course there are individuals that make a good living in financial markets swimming with the big fish but they are sharks compared to the whales that are hedge funds.
I don't think there is one operation with just one guy that is doing everything, that can compare itself to the big ones in term of capital when it comes to hedge funds.
later edit: btw one of the pimco founders started out with 200$ at blackjack in vegas making it 10k, after reading that famous book J7 was talking about. Then he got in the financial markets and now runs one of the biggest hedge funds in the world.Last edited by allin1; 06-13-12, 03:29 PM.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#43pimco has quite a few, but I don't know why are you asking about "large teams". why the extreme? though I would say that one analyst would be more extreme for any big hedge fund. of course there are individuals that make a good living in financial markets swimming with the big fish but they are sharks compared to the whales that are hedge funds.
I don't think there is one operation with just one guy that is doing everything, that can compare itself to the big ones in term of capital when it comes to hedge funds.
later edit: btw one of the pimco founders started out with 200$ at blackjack in vegas making it 10k, after reading that famous book J7 was talking about. Then he got in the financial markets and now runs one of the biggest hedge funds in the world.
P.S. - Anyone who runs $200 into $10k in blackjack (whether card-counting or not) had a very high degree of luck involved. The spreads alone could kill a $200 bankroll within minutes.Comment -
mathdotcomSBR Posting Legend
- 03-24-08
- 11689
#46Don't talk about the markets with Monkey, he knows everything that goes on at the CBOT.
(He is also well known for leaving town for Vegas before paying up his sizable tab at Ceres Cafe)Comment -
allin1SBR MVP
- 11-07-11
- 4555
#47Yes, there are a lot of traders that work almost exclusively individually for banks, funds and other companies. (You know this world very welldo you come from such a background or are you still involved inthe financial world?)
Regarding the size of the teams of analysts I don't know what to say. I am imagining that it doesn't matter how many they are. If a large percentage of them agree with one opinion/decision then you have more confidence in it. If it's 50%-50%, less confidence. I am imagining the same scenario being possible with a group of sharps, but I could be wrong because I am not sharp
Btw J7 mentioned that in order for the team to be good each one has to be able to make money on their own...
Regarding the bj thing I thought it was a little bit of luck too, but from 10k to billions in financial markets is quite an achievement.Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#48Yes, there are a lot of traders that work almost exclusively individually for banks, funds and other companies. (You know this world very welldo you come from such a background or are you still involved inthe financial world?)
Regarding the size of the teams of analysts I don't know what to say. I am imagining that it doesn't matter how many they are. If a large percentage of them agree with one opinion/decision then you have more confidence in it. If it's 50%-50%, less confidence. I am imagining the same scenario being possible with a group of sharps, but I could be wrong because I am not sharp
Btw J7 mentioned that in order for the team to be good each one has to be able to make money on their own...
Regarding the bj thing I thought it was a little bit of luck too, but from 10k to billions in financial markets is quite an achievement.Comment -
cutchemist42SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-12
- 737
#49j7 wrote a book?Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
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evo34SBR MVP
- 11-09-08
- 1032
#52
Remind me of your trading experience again?Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#53I'm glad you can use Google. Renaissance's wikipedia page says something eerily similar to your comment" "The Nova Fund has traded NASDAQ stocks only, executing purely electronically, with a desk staffed by 1-2 traders overseeing operations." Overseeing operations is not exactly the brains of a hedge fund. But I'm sure you would know that already.
Remind me of your trading experience again?
Since you seem to think you know so much about Renaissance, how many people developed the NOVA fund with Robert Frey exactly?Last edited by MonkeyF0cker; 07-04-12, 09:11 PM.Comment -
339955Restricted User
- 07-20-12
- 198
#54Using a "fudge factor" takes a very naive view of regression analysis, and I've said this before, you should really take a course on what's going on in the background. If you're consistently predicting higher than normal totals, you can't just subtract x from the predicted values and call it a day. It means that at least one of your co-efficients is too high (other than the constant), which means your model is overestimating the marginal effect of a certain variable, probably because you have omitted something seriously relevant. If the underlined part of that statement doesn't bother you, then, well, carry on...
off topic question, what models do you use for MLB what stuff do you model yourself there to bet?Comment
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