How Often Should one BTCL?

**jolmscheid** · 05-31-12, 09:14 AM

Bump..

**mathdotcom** · 05-31-12, 09:42 AM

As often as you can

**FreeFall** · 05-31-12, 11:21 AM

every play that doesn't is -eV. every play that does is +eV.

**jolmscheid** · 05-31-12, 11:58 AM

Thanks guys...what if one matches the closing line...is that still considered -ev?

**BeardedTaco** · 05-31-12, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

Thanks guys...what if one matches the closing line...is that still considered -ev?

I also have asked myself that question. Is there such a thing as the sharp side of a no-vig closer?

If you select the royals +123 early in the day against the yankees and it closes at +120/-127 on pinny, you have a wager equal to the no-vig closer of +123/-123 (http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/). Assuming the royals are an ugly dog during that period and the public is heavy on the yankees does it make any difference in regards to the equity of your bet?

**jolmscheid** · 05-31-12, 03:41 PM

That is a good question taco...the reason I am asking is because I have been looking at making Wagers in the overnight lines and wanted to get an idea as to how often one needs to beat the closer to be profitable..

**BeardedTaco** · 05-31-12, 03:59 PM

its not how often u do it but the combination of how much value per bet u generate.

If you wager:

+120
+130
+140

and the closers are

+121
+131
+120

you beat the no-vig closer 33% of the time but your 3rd bet has so much value that it makes ur day profitable long term by offsetting the bad bets.

**jolmscheid** · 05-31-12, 06:16 PM

Interesting...

**Maniac** · 05-31-12, 07:22 PM

The closing line is one thing, but what about games where the line moves in more than 1 direction.

So for instance a line opens at +120, goes out as far as +130 and you bet it at +128 as it is moving out, then later the line drops to and closes at +125.

Effectively the +128 is better than the closing line of +125, but wasnt as good as the top price available, which was +130 - so does this still make your bet +EV ?

**dogman** · 06-02-12, 06:32 PM

Basically what I do is when I make my bet, I want to get the best line that is available at that time. For ex., the Mets were +1 1/2 -165 at one book but mostly at all other books were +1 1/2 -175.

That said you want to beat the closing line as much as possible but when I make a play I want to get the best line out there compared to other books. As in my Mets example if I played them at -1 1/2 -175 I didn't make that bet with any edge but I did when I bet them at -165.

**chunk** · 06-02-12, 11:13 PM

I don't think that I will ever understand this "beat the closer" infatuation. When you see value, go shopping and take the best available price. I keep very good records of all transactions and whether I beat the closing line or not isn't one of them and never will be. I really couldn't care less, in fact in some instances, I have no problem going against steam when I feel value is on the other side. I'm not saying that the market isn't efficient....actually I really don't care whether it is or not. There is really only one thing that tells you the story at the end of the day and that is your bankroll.

**tomcowley** · 06-03-12, 11:11 AM

So even if you're right and the entire rest of the world is on crack, you don't want to have records of that situation so you could bet later next time at a better price and make more money, even though the only thing that matters to you is your bankroll? Herp derp.

**chunk** · 06-04-12, 09:31 AM

Horse apples....go chase some steam.