Why... I must be an idiot...

**tukkk** · 05-20-12, 11:47 AM

so you acquired years of data and then jerked around with until you finally after 2 years got an illogical formula that suits that dataset
and now you are about to see the truth about backtesting

i feel for you

**mathdotcom** · 05-20-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

I have spent the last two years developing several computer programs to assist me in predicting the outcome of games. I believe that I have learned that emotion takes to big of a toll in sports betting and I am not capable of remaining unbiased.

I spent this year finalizing my money management style, trying to Identify where my wins are coming from(types bets etc...) see how I'm doing against vegas.

I am averaging in the upper 50% range on college basketball totals. But I feel like a fool. I looked at how many games I was betting toward the end of the season and it was more on a percentage basis than less. Most sports I only have 2-3 years worth of data to be fair and it is too difficult to recreate other seasons.

I am not following the normal theory ... leverage when you have an advantage... I believe you should bet more games not less. So I know that I am missing something. Either that or my conclusion is that Vegas isn't doing the same things I am. I am trying to predict the score, they are trying to balance the books.

Not sure what to think. I relauch August 15th, I feel very naive even though I have bet more than anyone I know.

Anxious, but cautiously optimistic.

If your english were better we could help you.

It sounds like you hit almost 60% but are unhappy about it? Or you bet 60% of the card and got your ass handed to you?

**usma1992** · 05-20-12, 07:15 PM

Tukk... I appreciate you honesty... and yes some of what you is true. But my formulas are far from illogical. I have created a sensitivity analysis on the vegas over/under number by checking my results if the number were greater or less. In addition, not all of it was backtested. Many of my formulas were forward looking and have been applied over multiple seasons.

In college basketball, I have tracked and tested 5-6K games. At some level isn't that enough to feel like you have a fair sample size. At some point, the theory must hold true if the results continue to pan out.

Last year I won on NFL, I back tested it and it didn't work in previous seasons so I made major adjustments. My systems don't have to be perfect, but the trend must be positive. If you are designing systems, I don't see another way to test your theories other than working the current season and looking at the previous years.

Stock market guys back test often, they have to... Anyway, I still appreciate your input.

**usma1992** · 05-20-12, 07:16 PM

My english has never been my strong suit. That is y I pursued electrical engineering. But I was particularly under pressure as my battery died on my computer while sitting at a sports bar watching the Nats Orioles games.

**usma1992** · 05-20-12, 07:31 PM

Follow up with games tracked etc...

							"S-"	1		PER	3.00%	Min G	3	Goal	52.38%			0.0%	Bank	Over
2011-2012 Season		$1,000.00		Games	Nights	Non Standard Unders			Non Standard Overs			Standard Unders*			Standard Overs			Coin Flips**	Roll	Goal***
Nov 28-Dec 10	934.8802	$934.88		320	12	62.7%	32	51	41.7%	15	36	63.6%	28	44	52.6%	20	38	-8	3.7	4
Dec 11-18	1167.689	$1,091.65		105	5	40.0%	4	10	58.3%	7	12	42.9%	6	14	66.7%	12	18	2	1.1	3
Dec 19-31	1285.612	$1,403.44		309	8	45.2%	19	42	65.5%	19	29	40.0%	16	40	60.0%	21	35	1	3.1	4
Jan 1-Jan 9	911.8374	$1,279.71		245	8	56.1%	23	41	56.0%	14	25	46.4%	13	28	43.2%	16	37	0	3.1	5
Jan 10-15	1760.508	$2,252.93		229	6	65.1%	28	43	62.5%	15	24	42.9%	9	21	58.8%	20	34	0	3.0	4
Jan 16-25	1713.218	$3,859.77		296	8	69.2%	36	52	54.8%	17	31	61.5%	24	39	51.2%	22	43	-1	3.7	5
Jan 26- Feb 6	1776.052	$6,855.15		370	10	62.1%	41	66	50.0%	19	38	47.1%	24	51	64.4%	38	59	-13	4.8	6
Feb 6-Feb 14	1333.88	$9,143.94		253	7	50.0%	28	56	62.7%	42	67	56.1%	23	41	100.0%	2	2	-7	3.7	5
Feb 15-Feb 19	1294.679	$11,838.47		206	5	63.2%	24	38	52.4%	11	21	44.0%	11	25	52.6%	20	38	2	2.9	4
Feb 20-Feb 27	1341.834	$15,885.25		236	7	65.9%	29	44	52.2%	12	23	48.4%	15	31	55.9%	19	34	-7	3.0	5
Feb 28-Mar 3	1136.728	$18,057.21		210	10	52.5%	21	40	71.4%	20	28	48.4%	15	31	38.8%	19	49	-1	4.5	5

Total Games Bet	1391	Beginning	$1,000.00	2779	86	59.0%	285	483	57.2%	191	334	50.4%	184	365	54.0%	209	387	-32	36	50	58.1%
Percentage Won	56.89%	Ending	$18,057.21		Net Units		87	0.180		48	0.144		3	0.008		31	0.080
Total Net Units	166
Over 52.38%	58.1%

															`				Bank
2010-2011 Short Season		$1,000.00			Nights	Non Standard Unders			Non Standard Overs			Standard Unders			Standard Overs			Coin Flips**	Roll	Goal
Jan 21-Jan 31	1188.452	$1,188.45		292	8	1	28	50	0	20	47	0	18	38	1	36	57	3	7.7	4
Feb 1-Feb 6	1153.726	$1,371.15		219	6	1	22	40	1	17	34	1	14	25	1	15	26	-1	3.0	5
Feb 7-Feb 22	1572.006	$2,155.45		526	15	1	22	36	0	17	36	0	14	34	1	21	40	-1	13.1	10
Feb 23-Mar 3	1500.102	$3,233.40		312	8	1	38	61	1	31	52	0	14	29	1	23	46	-1	8.7	5

Total Games Bet	577	Beginning	$1,000.00		37	58.8%	110	187	50.3%	85	169	47.6%	60	126	56.2%	95	169	0	32	24	64.9%
Percentage Won	55.24%	Ending	$3,233.40	1349	Net Units		33	0.176		1	0.006		-6	0.048		21	0.124
Total Net Units	55	Projected	$14,018.72
Over 52.38%	64.9%	Full Season			* Standard Unders are not Bet because they haven't generated enough positive return

**FreeFall** · 05-20-12, 08:34 PM

where or why is the part about you being a fool? Most people are happy with profitable seasons...

**princecharles** · 05-20-12, 08:42 PM

Hi USMA,
Do not listen to these dyed in the wool pathetic cynical insecure (but intelligent in some areas) idiots.
I'm guessing you're 20 years old based on the 1992 in your name.
You are WAY ahead of 99% of these tunnel vision socially inept brains in jars!

Sent you a PM.

Later

**chopperocker** · 05-20-12, 10:41 PM

you made 1,805.721% profit in less than 14 weeks. im not seeing the problem. 96% gamblers are lifetime losers. increase your play size.

**usma1992** · 05-21-12, 08:29 AM

I appreciate the feedback...

The important thing is not that I generated that type of profit... it is that I did it while only betting 3% of my bankroll on any given game. But again, this is why I feel like an idiot.

Most people say why are you complaining etc... But the truth is nothing matters if it not repeatable. The fool in me believes that it is repeatable.

I have created these programs to allow more betting not less. And though the system is back tested quite a bit, it is live back testing. Which means, I am using the appropriate statistics at that exact time period, I am not using end of the year statistics. So Vegas is using the same stats I am at the same time period.

Anyway, I have 3 1/2 systems built. Baseball has been my biggest struggle.

Enjoy
Dave
P.S. My 20 Year West Point class reunion is this year and financially because I have tried this... I have to be the least successful person in my class... sort of funny.

**subs** · 05-23-12, 05:22 AM

Dude ur doing it wrong. try it more like this:

"Y i am am the flyest SBer here" or "U guys suck at SB compared to me" or "bet u can't make 1,800% profit in 14 weeks"

just busting ur balls... ever looked at kelly?

hope it continues 4 u. by next reunion u may b the MOST financially successful person there.

GL Dave

**Thremp** · 05-23-12, 07:09 AM

subs, what qualifies you to determine the relative ability of different sports bettors? I mean, the guy can't even understand fundamental concepts in the industry, yet you think he'll be the most successful person at his reunion? (Maybe its in Africa. I don't know.)

Sounds very weird. I would probably expect someone who isn't confused to do better.

**subs** · 05-23-12, 08:22 AM

C'mon dude, lighten up a bit, i'm not pretending to b qualified to comment on anything but the most basic concepts of SB.

hope it continues 4 u. by next reunion u may b the MOST financially successful person there.

u don't think that in the unlikely event that it continues @ ~ 1800% in 14 weeks, that that could make u somewhat well of in the next 20 years? i felt that the guy might appreciate some encouragement/self confidence/fun, can't b easy

to be the least successful person in my class

he's a SBer and it can b rough out there, i know u can feel me on that 1.

in my experience, reunions can b a tough time 4 some. and i like the guy: not many say enjoy; or r self depreciating; or open up in the slightest.

(having said that, if i were bitter and twisted/a dick, i could ask u how a busto SBer could lack quite so much grace and humility.) instead, may i wish u the best of luck, i hope u don't need it Thremp.

BTW, my dad makes the LOOT and he lives in africa. ur stereotyping of a whole continent sucks big hairy 1s.

**usma1992** · 05-23-12, 09:17 AM

So I waited tables on one of my classmates during Mother's Day. Yes, I am waiting tables. I took two years off to write these programs and unfortunately I ran out of money before the full testing period was complete. I recognized this guy instantly. I introduced myself and he asked me whether I am attending the reunion, I said I don't know. He is working with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and I am waiting tables. But when I explained to him what I was trying to do, he said... yeah I used to program in college too.

It was just funny here he is trying to compete with me and I am serving him mimosas.

Anyway, thremp... What fundamental concepts do I not understand. I am curious. Your insite would be welcome.

What I do know is that I have lived it for two years day in and day out... and most people out there can't say that and I have built four models from scratch that can be updated from my kitchen table daily in less than an hour... maybe even a half hour. My overhead is nothing.

I used to teach and make $1500 a day, still do a little, actually heading to Mexico soon because everyone else is scared to go.

I am trying to produce a low risk high reward model.

Dave

**usma1992** · 05-23-12, 09:18 AM

Thremp... what am I so confused about.

Dave

**Thremp** · 05-23-12, 09:28 AM

subs,

You seem like you're either intoxicated or on drugs. Lets both pretend that post never happened.

usma,

Your view of what books are doing is really wrong.

**durito** · 05-23-12, 09:53 AM

If you are waiting tables you are doing it wrong.

People should learn how to win at gambling first. Then you can build a model in your free time while you are not counting your stacks.

$1,500 a day teaching?

**Thremp** · 05-23-12, 10:57 AM

Winning is easy, the lifestyle is what tears people apart. Poppin the bottles and fuggin the models quickly results in a mini-me BR that you end up just shoving and then its time working at the carwash, atleast until your parents bail u out.

Unless you're not upper middle class+, then you're back washin cars.

**usma1992** · 05-23-12, 12:24 PM

I understand that the lifestyle tears you apart. I have been to Vegas for a period trying to figure out what was important in college basketball. I slept at Circus Circus, got up every morning walked to Hilton Sportsbook, got the spreads came back to hotel room, worked on them in the room... went back to the Hilton and placed my bets. It was only for a couple of weeks... I eventually got crushed and came home....figuring it couldn't be done... I picked it back up a few weeks later and have stopped since. My system has advanced light years from the day ... when I was trying to figure out how to download the teams and their data.

Winning consistently, isn't easy. My systems are designed to remove the anxiety, if possible. The computer becomes the third party... someone to blame... but it takes the anxiety away from me having to pick the individual games and stressing over it.

Yes my life is very odd right now. I am raising my 8 year old son assistant coaching baseball... waiting tables... teaching in Mexico and Brazil... all while trying to gather investors and prepare for next season.

I am up to $7K right now(not including my money), may have landed another $1K today. I had a guy that backed out on $2K yesterday because his father-in-law was a previous booky and believes it can't be done.

I teach in Brazil for one day in October and I get paid a travel day so I have at least $3K to throw back at college basketball starting Dec 1st regardless of what happens with the $7K.

For years I was foolish betting on games. Last year with the program, I was also foolish when it came to expectations, money management, and discipline. This year will be different and have setup checks and balances accordingly. But now I don't feel foolish, but I feel like a fool. I believe that I can beat Vegas on a percentage basis.

I am one of the those very smart dumb guys.

**subs** · 05-23-12, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

You seem like you're either intoxicated or on drugs.

um on drugs is intoxicated, not mutually exclusive.

Originally posted by Thremp

Winning is easy, the lifestyle is what tears idiots apart. Poppin the bottles and fuggin the models quickly results in a mini-me BR that you end up just shoving

FYP. Thremp i hope u get better at life. i've been a dj since i was 15 and worked at MTV for a long time. i prolly seen more models and bottles and ski than most. what is sad is when i see people w no self control, i always think them kinda weak, running around chasing their dick or the next high.

good luck w that.

**AngryPlanets** · 05-23-12, 07:27 PM

Please stop making hookers and blow boring.

**Thremp** · 05-24-12, 05:36 AM

I'm sure you were crushing the models/bottles/coke at age 15.

**chunk** · 05-24-12, 09:15 AM

Seems to me that there are some very creative imaginations here. Some could probably succeed at writing movie scripts or children's books.