Pinnacle arbitrage timing

**Sportsguy_USA** · 02-17-12, 08:08 PM

Interesting highness....any good sources to learn more about artibrage betting?

**mikew** · 02-18-12, 01:22 AM

its a good question. finding an arb-able line in the morning might seem profitable since the offmarket line is available at the time, but later in the day pinnys line might sharpen to where your earlier bet is not looking so hot anymore.

**paranoyd androyd** · 02-18-12, 01:44 AM

this is typically a futile attempt these days but gl

**Highness** · 02-18-12, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by paranoyd androyd

this is typically a futile attempt these days but gl

Do you say you this because you don't think pinnacle's lines are sharp enough? If this is the case, what do you think the minimum arb edge needed is to be exceedingly confident in at least breakeven? 2 cents, 5 cents, more?

Or are you saying this because you think the opportunities to find lines that are cheaper than the pinnacle true line are rare?(this would be incorrect, btw)

**sharpcat** · 02-18-12, 11:39 PM

Why don't you figure out on your own?

Lazy ass people begging for free handouts

**Justin7** · 02-19-12, 01:13 AM

The further from post you are, the more likely lines are to move (either way). In the case of a dramatic move, changing an early wager to an automatic win or automatic loss, an unexpected line move tends to move your plays towards coin-flips. Not completely, but it adds variance.

If I can choose a half-scalp early or late, I would always take it right before the game started.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 02-19-12, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

The further from post you are, the more likely lines are to move (either way). In the case of a dramatic move, changing an early wager to an automatic win or automatic loss, an unexpected line move tends to move your plays towards coin-flips. Not completely, but it adds variance.
If I can choose a half-scalp early or late, I would always take it right before the game started.

Huh?

**Highness** · 02-19-12, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

The further from post you are, the more likely lines are to move (either way). In the case of a dramatic move, changing an early wager to an automatic win or automatic loss, an unexpected line move tends to move your plays towards coin-flips. Not completely, but it adds variance.

Yes, variance is not a concern. Does this mean that you still expect late morning and early afternoon lines efficient enough to arbed profitably? How much cushion would you need before putting down action on an early line? 3 cents, 5 cents?

If I can choose a half-scalp early or late, I would always take it right before the game started.

Yes of course, obviously though the number of opportunities are far fewer by passing up arbing in the few hours prior to the game starting

**Highness** · 02-19-12, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Huh?

Here's an example of what he's saying: true pinnacle line of Bulls +3 -110, i get action down at +3 -106, by tip off the true line has moved to +3 +104 resulting in an automatic theoretical loss. The earlier you bet, the more likely the lines are to move and the more lines will shift from your initial positions increasing unpredictability

**luegofuego** · 02-19-12, 09:25 AM

Justins comment is just nonsensical.

Say I get +110 with a true line of PK. Suppose the likelihood of the line closing at +120 or bigger is 50% and the line closing at -120 or smaller is also 50%. Does that mean that half of the time, I've made a bad bet?

**calm** · 02-20-12, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

The further from post you are, the more likely lines are to move (either way).

true

Originally posted by Justin7

In the case of a dramatic move, changing an early wager to an automatic win or automatic loss, an unexpected line move tends to move your plays towards coin-flips. Not completely, but it adds variance.

false

Stop making shit up, go make some more videos and steal Thremp's scraps.

**Sawyer** · 09-08-13, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by Highness

I have a quick question about the best time to put on pinnacle arbs. I have access to bodog lines through a local and when I say pinnacle arb I mean in the context that I only place bets where I am getting a better price than the no-vig pinnacle line. In theory, pinnacle lines in big markets are efficient so this is profitable. I do not bet both sides, just the inefficient line.

My question is on the time of day to place my bets. Lines are 5pm are sharper than 11am. If I see a 5 cent arb opportunity at 11am, should I bet my full unit right then? Or should I only be arbing afternoon and beyond lines? Is there a reasonable line to draw to put my bet down in the morning, say an 8 cent or better arbritrage or is it just better to stay away from arbing morning lines altogether? thanks

Anytime but keep in mind that later line movements are more efficient.