Thoughts on a margin of victory pool?

[CMAC]

I participate in a season long college football pool of 10 pre-selected games per weekend where you pick versus the spread, but the points you earn are the margin over the spread in the case of favorites, and for underdogs it is the number of points by which it covered.

So you earn virtually no points for picking the winners of close games, but earn considerable points for picking blowouts or large underdogs winning outright.

Additionally you rank your top 3 picks and get 1.5 times the margin for your 1st pick, 1.2 times for your 2nd pick, and 1.1 times for your 3rd ranked pick.

Any thoughts on strategies? I've debated taking mostly favorites and hope for large victory margins....But haven't done it.

Just curious on other peoples thoughts on how they might go about playing something like this.

[Data]

You best bets are small underdogs because those are most likely to go through 0 and going through 0 is a guaranteed edge.

[donjuan]

You best bets are small underdogs because those are most likely to go through 0 and going through 0 is a guaranteed edge.

While going through the 0 is good for this, wouldn't taking an underdog of 13.5 probably be better as 13, 12 and 11 are worth very little and 9 isn't worth much either? It requires a bit more detailed analysis, which I don't have time for at the moment but it's something to consider.

[Peep]

I would think you would want to look for high totals, which would give you higher variance.

Would seem to me that the chances of a dog falling on a +2 would be no better than that of a -17 fav falling on the 17, with half the games over and half under, as the line does it's magical job of splitting the games with the fav winning 50% and the dog the same vs the number.....

[donjuan]

Would seem to me that the chances of a dog falling on a +2 would be no better than that of a -17 fav falling on the 17, with half the games over and half under, as the line does it's magical job of splitting the games with the fav winning 50% and the dog the same vs the number.....

Here's an example. Assume lines are efficient and you have two options for this contest, a 14.5 or a 16.5 point favorite. Which is more likely to win by 2.5? While the problem is a bit more complex than this, not all numbers are the same.

[Peep]

not all numbers are the same

Good point.

[rsigley]

Would seem to me that the chances of a dog falling on a +2 would be no better than that of a -17 fav falling on the 17, with half the games over and half under, as the line does it's magical job of splitting the games with the fav winning 50% and the dog the same vs the number.....

so this would be a fair game? I get all the spreads that are 3 and you get all the spreads that are 5. whoevers spread pushes the most wins

[Peep]

so this would be a fair game? I get all the spreads that are 3 and you get all the spreads that are 5. whoevers spread pushes the most wins

??

As I understand it, the goal is not to get the most pushes as I understand your post, but rather to win by the most total points over the number.

If we are playing that, I'll take the -5 over the -3 and suspect I have a bit the best of it.

[CMAC]

That is correct....If a 7 point favorite wins by 14, you get 7 points unless you rank it as one of your top 3, in which case you would get 7 x 1.5=10.5 if you ranked it 1st, 7 x 1.2=8.4 if you ranked it 2nd, or 7 x 1.1=7.7 if you ranked it 3rd.

If a 7 point underdog wins outright by 7, you would get 14 points (the margin the team covered by 7 + 7=14) and the same 1st, 2nd & 3rd rankings would apply as with my example above.

Hope this helps clarify my question....