Quick kelly question

[Winner_13]

When your using kelly and you have a favourite of greater than -110 odds and it says risk 5% does it mean risk to win 5%, or risk 5% of yr bankroll??
So for underdogs would it be risk 5% or risk to win 5%.

thxs

[FourLengthsClear]

It is always the risk amount.

If you have a calculated edge of 5% on two bets (not concurrent) a) at -110 and b) at +110, fully Kelly would mean risk 5.5% of your bankroll on a) and 4.55% on b).

The net effect is that you are betting to win 5% (i.e. your calculated edge)

[Winner_13]

thxs

[jolmscheid]

It is always the risk amount.

If you have a calculated edge of 5% on two bets (not concurrent) a) at -110 and b) at +110, fully Kelly would mean risk 5.5% of your bankroll on a) and 4.55% on b).

The net effect is that you are betting to win 5% (i.e. your calculated edge)

Hey Four Lengths...in your opinion, is it better to RISK X amount on each play or play TO WIN X amount on each play no matter if it is a dog or fav?

[jolmscheid]

Or is it fine to RISK X amount on dogs and play TO WIN X amount on favs? Which is better long-term for avoiding large swings, etc?

[FourLengthsClear]

Hey Four Lengths...in your opinion, is it better to RISK X amount on each play or play TO WIN X amount on each play no matter if it is a dog or fav?

If you are not able to calculate an edge on a wager to wager basis then betting to win X is the best way to go. The value of X, however should still be aimed at maximising growth. If you are a winning player then having an objective of "avoiding large swings" is really just failing to make the most of your advantage!

To define what X should be, you need to look at your historical results and establish the degree of confidence that these will be replicated going forward. Of course room needs to be left for margins of error/variance but in the long run underbetting is very costly.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Overbetting is far more costly.

[FourLengthsClear]

Overbetting is far more costly.

Fully agree but from the wording of jolmsheid's post (and his previous posts), it was clear that he is well aware of the dangers of overbetting.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the insight guys...so playing to win say 1-2% on favs and dogs of -200 to +200 is better than risking that amount?

[goblue12]

bet to win your kelly edge