If you had a good algorithm, what's best to do with it?

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  • cyptomcat
    SBR Hustler
    • 09-06-11
    • 66

    #1
    If you had a good algorithm, what's best to do with it?
    My college football algorithm was 72% ATS in regular season this year. Obviously part of that is chance, but let's say it's better than 60% for the year with several weeks of perfect picks (3-5 picks that were all correct.)

    What are the best ways to profit from this? Namely, I have and will invest some of my own money on this, but what else should I do?

    Any advice and tips in general?

    My season thread if you would like to see some evidence:
    Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
  • FreeFall
    SBR MVP
    • 02-20-08
    • 3365

    #2
    you find your edge on each bet and use kelly to figure out how much.

    Good Luck.
    Comment
    • cyptomcat
      SBR Hustler
      • 09-06-11
      • 66

      #3
      Originally posted by FreeFall
      you find your edge on each bet and use kelly to figure out how much.

      Good Luck.
      Thanks that will be useful for my own betting, but are there any viable options for selling my picks?
      Comment
      • mathdotcom
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-24-08
        • 11689

        #4
        Anyone who is smart enough to create such an algorithm knows what the fukk to do with it.

        Wtf do you think you do with it?
        Comment
        • FreeFall
          SBR MVP
          • 02-20-08
          • 3365

          #5
          Originally posted by cyptomcat
          Thanks that will be useful for my own betting, but are there any viable options for selling my picks?
          I guess it depends on the league that you have the oracle to ask for. If your league limits are $50 then it might make sense to sell them?

          I'm not really into being a tout though so it's not my area of interest.


          Personally, I don't think you have shit.
          Comment
          • durito
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-03-06
            • 13173

            #6
            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
            Comment
            • durito
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-03-06
              • 13173

              #7
              is your algorithm to bet on the top 10 ranked teams every week?
              Comment
              • FourLengthsClear
                SBR MVP
                • 12-29-10
                • 3808

                #8
                Originally posted by cyptomcat
                Thanks that will be useful for my own betting, but are there any viable options for selling my picks?
                Why would you want/need to?
                Go make your millions and leave the unwashed masses to their own devices.
                Comment
                • Maverick22
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 04-10-10
                  • 807

                  #9
                  The thing to do is. back test as far back as you can get data.

                  Find out if you your results are a blip or trend.

                  That's the first thing...
                  Comment
                  • Pancho sanza
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-18-07
                    • 386

                    #10
                    Back test it.

                    Don't even think about betting it with that small a sample size.
                    Comment
                    • cyptomcat
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 09-06-11
                      • 66

                      #11
                      Originally posted by durito
                      is your algorithm to bet on the top 10 ranked teams every week?
                      no, and that question should probably go in my season thread. thanks for the link
                      Comment
                      • cyptomcat
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 09-06-11
                        • 66

                        #12
                        Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
                        Why would you want/need to?
                        Go make your millions and leave the unwashed masses to their own devices.
                        What's wrong with selling in addition to investing on my own? I guess a problem I can see with that is the line is going to move with my pick, if the casino does indeed think my picks or my customers are good. (sharp money)

                        As far as back testing, I got p-value of .05 that it's not coming from a .55 correct rate (chi-square test).
                        Last edited by cyptomcat; 12-06-11, 01:22 PM.
                        Comment
                        • Dark Horse
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-14-05
                          • 13764

                          #13
                          Not to burst your bubble or anything, but I'm willing to bet that your algorithm won't work nearly as well next season. What touts don't want the public to know: the higher the winning percentage, the harder it is to duplicate. Anyone with enough talent and luck can hit over 60% for a football season, but two seasons in a row is a very different matter. If you can hit 54-55% when your sample size reaches 1000, you have something. If not, you just had a good run.
                          Comment
                          • chunk
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-08-11
                            • 808

                            #14
                            Originally posted by mathdotcom
                            Anyone who is smart enough to create such an algorithm knows what the fukk to do with it.

                            Wtf do you think you do with it?

                            Comment
                            • Wrecktangle
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-01-09
                              • 1524

                              #15
                              Originally posted by cyptomcat

                              As far as back testing, I got p-value of .05 that it's not coming from a .55 correct rate (chi-square test).
                              So, you've got a 1 in 20 chance that it is.

                              I'm with Dark Horse here, leagues change...sh!t *happens*

                              I can't tell you how many times I've had 60%+ seasons one year only to get a 52% (or worse) season the next with the same golden algorithm(s).
                              Comment
                              • Maverick22
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-10-10
                                • 807

                                #16
                                Create an android/apple app. Have this app deliver game picks. force people to buy the app. or pay a subscription.

                                if your algorithm is as good as you think. You should make plenty money in no time.

                                Simply give me 5% for giving you the idea
                                Comment
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