Kelly Money Management??

[jolmscheid]

Ok...I have heard that one should keep their bet sizes constant ALWAYS....I have heard that one should re-calculate their bet size when the bankroll increases or decreases by 15-20%....and I have heard that one should re-calculate their bet size after each day / wager...

So which is best?

If one re-calculates their unit size after each wager, doesn't this in essence RAISE the break-even percentage needed to profit??

[jolmscheid]

I see pros and cons to both re-calculating and straight betting....but I would really appreciate what others think about this and why...I appreciate it!

[chilidog]

Are you currently profitable?

[jolmscheid]

Are you currently profitable?

Currently I am profitable, yes...I just want to know what way is the best way longterm? Thanks Chili...

[FourLengthsClear]

Kelly Criterion is the optimal method of money management in terms of maximising bankroll growth for a profitable bettor.

In the long run, iIt does not raise or reduce the required percentage of winning bets. It does however mean that a bad string of results will severely dent your bankroll and for this reason, even many of its proponents, use it on a fractional basis.

Kelly can only work if you have a strong basis for being able to calculate your edge on a wager by wager basis. If you are interested in following up there is lots of good reading if you google "Kelly Criterion".

[jolmscheid]

Kelly Criterion is the optimal method of money management in terms of maximising bankroll growth for a profitable bettor.

In the long run, iIt does not raise or reduce the required percentage of winning bets. It does however mean that a bad string of results will severely dent your bankroll and for this reason, even many of its proponents, use it on a fractional basis.

Kelly can only work if you have a strong basis for being able to calculate your edge on a wager by wager basis. If you are interested in following up there is lots of good reading if you google "Kelly Criterion".

Thank you, but am I correct when I say that kelly says to re-calculate after each wager?

[LT Profits]

If you are not comfortable enough to calculate your edge on each play (i.e., use Kelly), then the next best thing is use fixed percentage (usually 2-2.5%) of bankroll, with that percentage being the "To Win" amount. Now theoretically, you are supposed to recalculate bankroll after each play, but you can get away with recalculating at the start of each day, which is what I do.

[FourLengthsClear]

Thank you, but am I correct when I say that kelly says to re-calculate after each wager?

In dollar terms, yes.

Essentially Kelly will give you a percentage of your bankroll to wager which is, of course, dependant on the quantum of your edge.

I din't know if you are aware but there is a Kelly Calculator here.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

It is probably worth playing around with that for 10 minutes or so.

[Stocks]

So lets say you hit 55% at -110 and if I'm using that calc correctly 55% is the same as a 5% edge?

Kelly says bet 5.5% for -110, 3.3% for +150, 7.5% for -150 and so on so basicly you just bet more on favourites and less on dogs.

[FourLengthsClear]

So lets say you hit 55% at -110 and if I'm using that calc correctly 55% is the same as a 5% edge?

Kelly says bet 5.5% for -110, 3.3% for +150, 7.5% for -150 and so on so basicly you just bet more on favourites and less on dogs.

55% at -110 is a 5.0% edge, yes.

55.00% / 52.38%* = 1.05
* 52.38% is the implied win percentage of -110 odds.

If your edge was 5% on every single bet then as you say, the risk amount (in percentage of bankroll terms) is inversely proportional to the odds. The calculator I linked to allows you to change from percentages to dollar figures.

[LT Profits]

So lets say you hit 55% at -110 and if I'm using that calc correctly 55% is the same as a 5% edge?

Kelly says bet 5.5% for -110, 3.3% for +150, 7.5% for -150 and so on so basicly you just bet more on favourites and less on dogs.

Right, but if you know your edge is 5%, you don't really need the calculator, just bet TO WIN 5% of bankroll, which is exactly the same profit for the risk percentages you gave at the prices you gave, That way you save time for more important things.

[tukkk]

if you dont recalculate after every bet, then you are overbetting when you just lost and underbetting when you won.

[LT Profits]

if you dont recalculate after every bet, then you are overbetting when you just lost and underbetting when you won.

Technically true but when you are making 40-50 bets a day, it is just more practical to recalc daily. It should balance out in the wash in the long run anyway unless you run abnormally hot or cold for an extended period.

[That Foreign Guy]

I use a fractional kelly and recalculate after every "set" of results (daily for slow sports, each kickoff time for football).

[jolmscheid]

THanks for the insight guys...re-calculating after each bet / day seems to be the consensus here instead of re-calculating after a certain % growth / decline...

[statictheory]

Not to tout a tout but Dr Bobs Sports has some excellent free articles on sports betting and money management . That being said you cant go wrong with LT either