Just a thought

**Pancho sanza** · 10-12-11, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by The Sensei

Ive been thinking about something lately that I'm sure there is a very simple answer for but i have not found it yet.

A lot of times in books let you parlay the over/under of a game with the spread for instance something like Team A -5/Over 55. So lets say in a matchup of:

Team A vs Team B with an over/under of 55

I am very confident in team A. My normal bet is $40. Straight up I would have to bet $40 to win $36.36(-110 assumed). Well what if i made a $20 parlay with team A/over and another $20 parlay of team A/under. A $20 parlay with -110 odds pays roughly $52 so now my $40 has a higher ROI. Is there something I'm missing? Naturally this would not be using the same book

You are essentially risking 40 to win 32 on team A, -125 odds

You like laying an extra 15 cents just for the hell of it?

**LT Profits** · 10-13-11, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by The Sensei

my $40 has a higher ROI

Um....huh? Your return is now $72 instead of $76.36

**dabomguy11** · 10-13-11, 02:38 AM

It makes sense for a bit, but you have to realize that you'll automatically lose your other parlay (disregarding pushes in the O/U). Let's say the over hits in this one:

Wager 20 on each, win 52 on the Team A/Over, lose 20 on the team A/Under.

Net gain of 32. Basically, you just wagered 40 (20 in each parlay) to win 32 (52 from the parlay that hits, -20 from the parlay that doesnt), which, as previously posted, is wagering at -125 odds, instead of -110. You can't just say that you're wagering 40 to win 52, because if you say that, you're not taking into account the fact that you're guaranteed to lose at least half of the 40 you're wagering.

**Domestic** · 10-13-11, 03:22 AM

You made an error when calculating the profit OP.

Let us say you make your usual $40 bet straight up on a team at -5 with -111 odds and it wins.
40 x -111 odds = 36.04 (Total profit $36.04)

Now lets say you parlay the -5 with an over and then place your other bet with the -5 and the under.

Winning Parlay
20 x -111 x -111 = 72.27 (Total profit $52.27)

Losing Parlay
20 x -111x-111 = -20 (Total loss $20)

So if you subtract the loss of $20 from the winning parlay profit we are left with $32.07 profit.
This means you have lost $3.99. You should just bet $40 on the spread in a single play.

**The Sensei** · 10-13-11, 03:50 AM

haha yea my bad guys. Just one of those times I couldn't quite figure out what i was missing

**Domestic** · 10-13-11, 06:53 AM

Originally posted by The Sensei

haha yea my bad guys. Just one of those times I couldn't quite figure out what i was missing

When I was trying to explain why it doesn't work I forgot the same thing.