Proposed Handicapper Think Tank FAQ

[Ganchrow]

It seems like a number of very similar questions are repeatedly asked in the Think Tank and so I'd think it might make sense to sticky a Think Tank FAQ (or ultimately even some sort of a WikiFAQ if a robust way to integrate this into vBulletin could be found).

So if anyone has any ideas for questions and/or answers, please post them here in this thread.

[Peep]

I like the idea.

I have seen them on some techie help forums I frequent. They usually take the form of a sticky that says "read this first".

As a user I find this helpful, and I don't have to go through the embarrassment of having to ask how to cut and paste. It is all in the read there first for me!

[Dark Horse]

Ganch, you were born to write a book on game theory, as applied to sports betting. If possible, heavy on the illustrations (people love reading about sports games) and not too heavy on the math (those otherworldly characters put people to sleep).

I'm ordering my copy today.


(Those number guys came up with some f*cking great names for rock bands. "Prisoner's Dilemma", "Trembling Hand Equilibrium (aka as 'THE' !).

[Sinister Cat]

Ganch, you were born to write a book on game theory, as applied to sports betting. If possible, heavy on the illustrations (people love reading about sports games) and not too heavy on the math (those otherworldly characters put people to sleep).

I'm ordering my copy today.

Funny, was just reading one of Ganchrow's other posts and thinking he could probably compile his posts and get them published as a "stats for sports bettors" book or something.

[Peep]

Agree. A compulation/best of Ganchrow would be a heck of a start for "read this first/frequently asked questions". I think having that pinned at the top of the forum would help increase participation too, as people could have some specific material/theory to ask questions about......

[Ganchrow]

Thanks for the kind words, but come on guys ... this forum is not supposed to be "The Ganchrow Show". There are quite a lot of sharp folks who post here regularly (and not-so-regularly) and who frequently say things not only better than I, but also more clearly, more succinctly, and more accurately. (I'd start naming names, but I'd really hate to leave anyone out).

I'd like for this to be some sort of a group effort (in other words, I'm a bit lazy), so maybe we can just start by putting together a list of frequently asked questions and then ultimately worry about compiling answers later.

Any suggestions?


I'll start:

1) "Hey, where are all the posted picks in this forum?" / "Why do so few of you post your picks?"

[durito]

Discussions on Flat betting are always popular:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/21547-flat-betting-what-your-stand.html?slf=67

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/59685-betting-units.html?slf=67

[Peep]

Two popular ones I see are

1) Where can I download raw data and
2) How does a Kelly work and where can I find out more about it

[Sinister Cat]

- Parlays are a sucker bet. Right?
- Should I bet the moneyline or runline for baseball sides?
- I came up with this really promising-looking strategy where I simply double my bet if I lose. I just need to know what the likelihood of losing x number of games in a row is.

[Ganchrow]

Good ones.

Keep them coming.

[freeVICK]

how should line movements affect my betting?

i.e should i always bet with the line movement?

[Peep]

How big a bankroll do I need to go professional?

[durito]

These two should be required getting started reading:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/12142-introduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html

[Art Vandeleigh]

What's the general idea behind advantage betting? I mean the bookies will always juice you to death in the long run, right?


What kind of math should I learn, or re-familiarize myself with, to help me better understand advantage betting?

[Bullajami]

What winning percentage do I need to be profitable
at -110
at -107
at -105

[CMAC]

Within the FAQ--a glossary of handicapping jargon might be helpful to newcomers as well.

[the_fredrik]

Don't forget the obvious one: (easy enough to ask at least! How do I win at sportsbetting?

[the_fredrik]

The half-point calculator seems like a fabulous tool: How did you make it and how exact is it?

[cheehee]

how should line movements affect my betting?

i.e should i always bet with the line movement?

Hey Hawaii04 thought you might enjoy this site. Cheehee!

[Boner_18]

Are exotic sports bets (i.e. teasers, if bets) mathematically "bad bets" like most exotic bets on the table games?

If not, how can one effectively play them?

[rory borealis]

If you're going the MATH ROUTE... maybe offer some examples for the questioner to work his way through.

For example... a player wants to bet 2 games that are being played simultaneously at 1:00 PM...

..he feels he enoys a 1% advantage on the first game and an advantage of 0.5% on the second game.

The player's bankroll is $1000

How much should he bet on each game to be Kelly compliant

[trixtrix]

what is the adv of using some type of derivative kelly-caliberated bet weighting system?

what hidden premiums should one consider before depositing into an online sportsbook (this actually isn't frequently asked, but imo should be. time-value of money locked in one location, likelihood of default, value of the book's bonus, processor time, and w/draw fee all should be considered before depositing..)

what is the actual equity of the freeplay bonus i'm being offered? (please do this if only for the sake of stopping 20 future dynamite140 threads..)

[G's pks]

systems with a winning percentage would be interesting..

[Neil Nollidge]

Within the FAQ--a glossary of handicapping jargon might be helpful to newcomers as well.

And statistical jargon with numerical examples. ( Or a statement to the effect that stats are too hot to touch if you have not completed a course. )

[Dark Horse]

Ganch, can you create a sabermetrics software program for us?

[Pancho sanza]

Is the half point calculator based on actual game data or a modelling process? (Poisson).

[durito]

actual game frequencies

[The General]

Teaser and parlay odds information. When to play them and when not to. Reverting to what if a push is involved?

[Neil Nollidge]

The previous post on this thread happened on the 4th of March. Perhaps, the next phase of this excercise is due, but I am not sure how it should work.

[Wrecktangle]

How about a quickie tutorial on how to build a rudimentary rating system for a closed team league (like the NFL or NBA). Use the formulas that Jeff Sagarin makes a ton of money off; which he basically ripped from the chess world (Elo) and The Hidden Game of Football (Sagarin calls them: PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, and/or WHITE OWL). This would be made especially for those poor smucks who are trying to build Dan Gordon's Back-to-the-Future (aka 1980s) alphabet-soup rating system from BEAT THE SPORTS BOOKS.

...Or, I guess they can just copy down Sagarin's stuff and save time.

[Pancho sanza]

For baseball, how do I create a scores distribution matrix if I know team A beats team B by 1.6 runs (on average), 6 runs predicted for team A, 4.4 for team B off my ML/total.

Poisson doesn't work very well.

[pbateman]

What is the most efficient, easiest way to track Reverse Line Movement? Is there some sort of tracker on the internet I can refer to?

[MrWendell]

How i can make bettingsystem and what " bettingsystem" actually means?
Sorry of my english
Thanks.