Hockey Discussion

**Stocks** · 08-05-11, 10:45 AM

I know some people here might not like my way of betting hockey just like they didn't like my way of betting baseball but I do what works for me so take it what it's worth.

First I like to handicap hockey similar to how I handicap baseball but without the starting pitcher. One of the first things I like to look at are home/away records. Some teams suck on the road so don't bet them on the road and other teams play very well at home so don't bet against these at home.

Next thing is teams that are playing well and teams that are playing poorly. Just like baseball teams get hot and cold streaks so don't bet teams that's playing poorly and don't bet against a hot team.

Now a few things to make sure to look at is

Injurys - If a team is missing a big key player than I may layoff betting them but it's hard to say unless you have a good feel for the game and how a team will play without them and also the oddsmakers will adjust the odds and a lot of times over adjust the odds when a guy like Sidney Crosby is out. When looking at injurys make sure to pay attenion to defenseman that are injured. Usually Defensemen are not big name players so oddsmakers won't adjust the odds much if at all but if a team is missing a couple of their regular defensemen and have to play a couple inexperienced guys than this may be a good betting opportunity.

Starting Goalies - Kind of overrated in my opinion so I don't pay a whole lot attenion to it unless the starting goalie is a super star type goalie and the backup is just total garbage. I like to look at a backups W/L record if a team still wins with their backup in net than who cares.

Special Teams - I think a teams PP and PK are very important so keep an eye out for hot PP's or cold PK's

Back to Back plus 3 games in 4 nights - A team may be tired on the 3rd game in 4 nights plus back to back. I dont like betting a team in this situation because I don't know what kind of performance I'm going to get but I also feel like oddsmakers adjust or over adjust the odds for these games so a lot of times it's not really worth it to bet the other side.

**illfuuptn** · 08-05-11, 10:55 AM

I know I said I'd appreciate all advice but that was pretty atrocious. I really think it's inconsiderate of you to spew all this "info" when it's obvious that, given the info you use, you lose at NHL betting. The only useful info you gave was about the market overreacting to big name injuries and defensemen being undervalued when it cones to line changes in their absence. Sorry to br so harsh but I've read some of your posts and you need a reality check. Be honest with yourself and really scrutinize the list you just gave me. Again, no hard feelings and I appreciate that you were trying to help.

**the_mathman** · 08-05-11, 11:02 AM

is my opinion that the first betting rule is the follow:
"The book's odd is the better odds estimation"

all the others rules are secondary...

**illfuuptn** · 08-05-11, 11:49 AM

So are you saying it's impossible to make money betting sports?

**Stocks** · 08-05-11, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by illfuuptn

I know I said I'd appreciate all advice but that was pretty atrocious. I really think it's inconsiderate of you to spew all this "info" when it's obvious that, given the info you use, you lose at NHL betting. The only useful info you gave was about the market overreacting to big name injuries and defensemen being undervalued when it cones to line changes in their absence. Sorry to br so harsh but I've read some of your posts and you need a reality check. Be honest with yourself and really scrutinize the list you just gave me. Again, no hard feelings and I appreciate that you were trying to help.

No offence taken man.

Also I don't lose at betting hockey hockey is probably my best sport betting wise. Being Canadian hockey was actually what I first start betting back in the day so I know hockey and I know how to bet it successfully.

**Sawyer** · 08-05-11, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by the_mathman

is my opinion that the first betting rule is the follow:
"The book's odd is the better odds estimation"

This is completely wrong. I respect oddsmakers in NBA and NFL but when it comes to hockey, many times I wonder if they overslept, how they come up with funny lines? Remember how many times NY Islanders were huge underdog last year?

There's a ton of value lying in NHL, waiting to be found. Actually, many times it's not oddsmakers' error. It's betting public! You know when setting/adjusting odds, oddsmaker's goal is to create equal action. Bookie lines don't mean to be any predictions. How you could cash NY Islanders as huge underdog so many times last year?

You should set/create your odds and then compare it with bookie's lines. Some of you know my Iron Dogs System. Started on December 1 and Iron Dogs produced +4658 Units (risking 100 units each game, flat). 144 Winners, 149 Lost, +4658 Units.

Let me add one more thing. Home ice is overrated in hockey. Of course, playing at home is an advantage but not so much. Home advantage is higher in other sports (basketball, soccer, football).

**greva** · 08-05-11, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

This is completely wrong. I respect oddsmakers in NBA and NFL but when it comes to hockey, many times I wonder if they overslept, how they come up with funny lines? Remember how many times NY Islanders were huge underdog last year? There's a ton of value lying in NHL, waiting to be found. Actually, many times it's not oddsmakers' error. It's betting public! You know when setting/adjusting odds, oddsmaker's goal is to create equal action. Bookie lines don't mean to be any predictions. How you could cash NY Islanders as huge underdog so many times last year? You should set/create your odds and then compare it with bookie's lines. Some of you know my Iron Dogs System. Started on December 1 and Iron Dogs produced +4658 Units (risking 100 units each game, flat). 144 Winners, 149 Lost, +4658 Units. Let me add one more thing. Home ice is overrated in hockey. Of course, playing at home is an advantage but not so much. Home advantage is higher in other sports (basketball, soccer, football).

Risking 100 units each game? i guess 4658 units sounds better than 46,58

**jgilmartin** · 08-06-11, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by the_mathman

is my opinion that the first betting rule is the follow:
"The book's odd is the better odds estimation"

all the others rules are secondary...

If that is true why is it that closing lines (on average, as a whole, over a large number of games, in major markets) are closer to the actual probability than opening lines are? Surely someone out there must have a better estimation than the books.

**durito** · 08-06-11, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Let me add one more thing. Home ice is overrated in hockey. Of course, playing at home is an advantage but not so much. Home advantage is higher in other sports (basketball, soccer, football).

how many times are you gonna repeat this without looking at the actual data?

**Dark Horse** · 08-06-11, 01:31 AM

Where to start? Number of shots, goalie save %, rolling averages, home/away records, power plays %, penalty minutes, face-offs, and anything else but the wind factor and temperature of the ice. Throw it all in a big pot, put on your witch hat, and start stirring the brew.

**Inkwell77** · 08-06-11, 02:12 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Where to start? Number of shots, goalie save %, rolling averages, home/away records, power plays %, penalty minutes, face-offs, and anything else but the wind factor and temperature of the ice. Throw it all in a big pot, put on your witch hat, and start stirring the brew.

Haha, good post, but I do think the temperature of the ice does matter!!
The Winter Classic and Boston Garden last year is a great example!!

**Sawyer** · 08-06-11, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by greva

Risking 100 units each game? i guess 4658 units sounds better than 46,58

What's so funny about it? Since we're dealing with american odds like +120, +150; calculating as 100-Unit per bet makes it easier to calculate. It's +46 units if you risk 1 unit each game.