Value vs Beating the Closing Line

[funone]

Basically you can have sharp money on both sides of a contest that have found value, hitting the early line or the late closing, then how does beating the closer come in?
There really is no right side... right? if the number dictates it there can be value on either side. What am I missing here? Sorry if this is too basic for some of you.
It seems that "beating the closer" implys that there is a right side when there really isnt. ?

[LT Profits]

No beating the closing NO-VIG line is always the sharper play, which is something the guy that bet the closing line at its peak still did not do. Also, there can only be ONE MAXIMUM +EV side in any game.

[jgilmartin]

This is all assuming an efficient market.

- If a game closes at -110 / -110, the no-vig is +100 / +100.

- If you got +101 or better on either side at any point from open to close, you had the 'right side'.

- If a game opens at -115 / -105 and has only one line move, to -110 / -110, neither side was ever +EV (although betting Team A at open at -115 was more -EV than betting Team B at open at -105, obviously).

- Sometimes you will see a line move one way far enough and then so far back the other way that both sides ended up being +EV had you bet them at the right times.

So the 'right side' can be one, neither, or both.

[LT Profits]

This is all assuming an efficient market.

Right, which is a safe assumption since he is probably taking about a major sport

- If a game closes at -110 / -110, the no-vig is +100 / +100.

- If you got +101 or better on either side at any point from open to close, you had the 'right side'.

Right, but the way the OP posed the question, it sounded like the second bettor took the closing line and that that was the peak line of the day for his side, obviously meaning he didn't beat no-vig close.

- Sometimes you will see a line move one way far enough and then so far back the other way that both sides ended up being +EV had you bet them

Yes you got me there, but going back to my assumption that the second guy only bet the closer, it dd not apply here.

[funone]

[quote=LT Profits;10777645]Right, which is a safe assumption since he is probably taking about a major sport



Right, but the way the OP posed the question, it sounded like the second bettor took the closing line and that that was the peak line of the day for his side, obviously meaning he didn't beat no-vig close.

Yeah I wasnt clear enough, but just sayin that pros can be on both sides primarily.

[pedro803]

Maybe this is oversimplistic -- but I think of it like this:

BTCL means the line came toward your play, or to put it another way, you got a number that you could not have gotten at the close because the line moved in a direction that implies you made a +EV play -- so the point is -- you made a play that the sharp money agreed with and the subsequent line move reflected that.

So you might lose the bet, but the indication is that your bet was probably a good one that if you could place over and over again it would hit often enough to turn a profit.