conversion of moneyline/spread? odds/price?

[pedro803]

anybody got a formula for converting moneyline to spread and visuh-versa?

For one thing, it seems like it would not be an exact science, because in the moneyline the odds and the price are all mixed up into the same numbers.

That is, for the spread we can see the odds and the price - as theoretically the spread is set at the number where half the public would take each side, and the vig is predetermined and charged to whichever side loses in the end.

While on the other hand -- the moneyline is similarly set to attract similar $$$ on both sides, but in this case the vig is mixed up in the line itself -- is it better to think of it as the vig is being charged equally to everyone? b/c the dog doesn't pay as much as the favorite loses, and this difference is the vig, Or is there a better way to identify the vig hidden in moneylines?

Also, anybody want to explain how to solve for the win rate needed to break even at a given price? e.g. 52.379????% win rate @ -110 is breakeven -- what is the formula to solve for this?

And finally -- how would you calculate breakeven for moneylines -- so for example a money line of +140/-180, how would you calculate the win percentage needed on each side of this bet to reach breakeven.

I know I asked too many questions in the same post, but if anybody feels like discussing -- then please do, thanks in advance if anybody cares to weigh in.

[snapperman2]

anybody got a formula for converting moneyline to spread and **** versa?

It depends on the sport. You need to have a database on the sport and find out the push percentage for each difference in the final score by looking at the historical data. There are tables in Conquering Risk by Feustel and Howard which tell you. They have done the work with the databases.

Also, anybody want to explain how to solve for the win rate needed to break even at a given price? e.g. 52.379????% win rate @ -110 is breakeven -- what is the formula to solve for this?

And finally -- how would you calculate breakeven for moneylines -- so for example a money line of +140/-180, how would you calculate the win percentage needed on each side of this bet to reach breakeven.

The win rate necessary to breakeven at -110 is 110/210=52.38%. For +140 it is 100/240=41.67%. For -180 it is 180/280=64.29%.

[pedro803]

wow, thanks for the quick response! And it works too!

[pedro803]

How about a formula for adjusting won/loss record for price?

Has anyone worked out how to keep a won-loss record with each pick adjusted for "break even" percentage needed for that pick at the price at which it was made?

I mean like a coefficient (based on the win rate needed to break even for that individual bet) that you could mulitply each individual win and loss by to get a number which is adjusted for the price at which you bought it. So your won loss might look like 13.653 and 11.120 but its adjusted for price and actually indicates that you are up.

[pedro803]

Here is what I mean: (I think maybe I worked it out please correct my logic if wrong)

using the -110 example above the nececary win rate is 52.38 (corresponding to inverse necessary loss rate of 47.62)

so to get adjusted won loss at -110:

I would adjust each win by 2x necessary loss rate (95.24%) so a win at -110 is worth .9524 adjusted wins
and each loss by 2x necessary win rate (104.76%) so a loss at -110 is wort 1.0476 losses

so the formula for a given play would be:

# of units won x 2(Necessary Loss Rate) for a win

or

# of units lost x 2(necessary win rate) for a loss

I know i am just talking basic arithmetic here, but any thoughts?

[davidchong]

hmmm

[snapperman2]

For the -110 example, I think you should multiply wins by 100/110=0.909, and leave losses at 1. So a win would be worth 0.909 and a loss would be worth -1.

[LT Profits]

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/spread-ml-converter/

[elbciho]

Is that information for soccer available anywhere?

[subs]

anybody got a formula for converting moneyline to spread and visuh-versa

sharp sports betting by wong also...

or maybe use the half point calculator (not as accurate though)

[subs]

Is that information for soccer available anywhere?

AFAIK, u'll have to do it urself.

get some data from the league ur interested in. make it searchable by AH and total. so find every game played where the line and handicap is he same as ur game (home away matters too).

find % for every MOV. eg MOV 0 is 20%, MOV 1 20% etc. (can u tell i know shit about soccer? lol)

use this % to find the moneyline by taking it away (or adding on) to 50% and convert to EU odds.

good luck

[HeeeHAWWWW]

This is why EU odds are so much better, just do the 1/x thang and you're there.

(not a nationalistic point btw, we British use another system that's just as stupid as the American one).

[buby74]

In college football the pointspread is roughly 9 * ln (odds) where ln is the natural log

[uva3021]

In college football the pointspread is roughly 9 * ln (odds) where ln is the natural log

this seems to work, odds should be expressed as Hong Kong odds (DEC - 1)

a better way is the inverse pythagorean expectation that spits out a spread given the ML and Total