Getting frustrated with the WNBA

[Emily_Haines]

Just getting my ass kicked like no tomorrow on this stuff. I think it is a sport that is about as unpredictable as they come. I have had several bets come down to the last possession and luck not gone my way.

Yesterday I learned that Indiana would be without Douglas one of their better players and made a large bet on the under and ref's called shitty game and let them shoot 70 free throws and game went over by a billion pts. I guess if I wasn't so stupid I could have figured out the 2nd half would be played much the same way and to take over 75 (which would have been an easy winner) but for some reason I could not pull the trigger.

Everyone says it's so easy to beat and in reality it is not especially when games get bet into place with Pinny's micro limits on open.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Just getting my ass kicked like no tomorrow on this stuff. I think it is a sport that is about as unpredictable as they come. I have had several bets come down to the last possession and luck not gone my way.

Yesterday I learned that Indiana would be without Douglas one of their better players and made a large bet on the under and ref's called shitty game and let them shoot 70 free throws and game went over by a billion pts. I guess if I wasn't so stupid I could have figured out the 2nd half would be played much the same way and to take over 75 (which would have been an easy winner) but for some reason I could not pull the trigger.

Everyone says it's so easy to beat and in reality it is not especially when games get bet into place with Pinny's micro limits on open.

How are the lines you are taking fairing vs. close?

[Emily_Haines]

How are the lines you are taking fairing vs. close?

I know that in the long run beating the closing number should work out well for you. For the most part I have the better number but unless you bet the Pinny opener at the 250 level the number you get is usually not significantly better than when all the books copy.

I think I may just stick with soccer over the summer as I don't think the WNBA is that beatable anymore.

[Dark Horse]

Agree that WNBA was more beatable a few years ago. For the top players this league is secondary. They make their 'big' money in other countries. That creates a dynamic where players may not take the league as seriously as you might expect. When the WNBA was just getting started players were much more committed to making it a success. But now that the league is fairly established, there may have been a shift in attitude. I wouldn't quite compare it to preseason in the NFL, but if there were an area between preseason and the real season, that's where I would place the WNBA. What does that mean? Sometimes they show up, sometimes they don't. The consistency of effort that we saw some years ago is no more.

[MonkeyF0cker]

After 35 total games this season, it seems like a reasonable time to panic.

[suicidekings]

I think I may just stick with soccer over the summer as I don't think the WNBA is that beatable anymore.

The nature of the WNBA is such that even the teams themselves can't predict what's going to happen at this point in the season. I'm not going to touch it until they're half way through the season.

[Justin7]

The nature of the WNBA is such that even the teams themselves can't predict what's going to happen at this point in the season. I'm not going to touch it until they're half way through the season.

And THAT is why the best value is often early in the season. After each team has played 16 games, and starters have logged over 400 minutes, the market becomes more efficient... tougher to beat.

Give me the wild west, where the best speculative theory wins, and I am in my happy place.

[suicidekings]

And THAT is why the best value is often early in the season. After each team has played 16 games, and starters have logged over 400 minutes, the market becomes more efficient... tougher to beat.

Give me the wild west, where the best speculative theory wins, and I am in my happy place.

I overstated it a bit. I play the early games here and there, but even in low season while we're waiting for NFL/NBA to start up again, I can't be bothered to invest too much time into the WNBA when it ranks 4th-5th among the sports I cap. Give me useable current season data and I'm happy.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I know that in the long run beating the closing number should work out well for you. For the most part I have the better number but unless you bet the Pinny opener at the 250 level the number you get is usually not significantly better than when all the books copy.

I think I may just stick with soccer over the summer as I don't think the WNBA is that beatable anymore.

I don't understand what's going on with the line moves at Pinny with the WNBA. They throw out a number that's not right and it gets "machine gunned" down to the right number. It's not like other line moves. Today's Atlanta game opened up Atlanta -5 1/2 at 11:01 am and by 11:06 am they're -1 1/2. Someone is hitting the line at $250 a pop instead of waiting?

[skrtelfan]

I don't understand what's going on with the line moves at Pinny with the WNBA. They throw out a number that's not right and it gets "machine gunned" down to the right number. It's not like other line moves. Today's Atlanta game opened up Atlanta -5 1/2 at 11:01 am and by 11:06 am they're -1 1/2. Someone is hitting the line at $250 a pop instead of waiting?

I don't know about WNBA specifically, but in a small market like Arena, you often have to bet early even when the markets are small because Teddy Covers releases his tout plays before very many books offer lines. He cares more about his record than whether people can get down on his plays, so he can advertise "56% winners!" or whatever even though winning 4u on his plays on the season is probably less than he charges for the service.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I don't know about WNBA specifically, but in a small market like Arena, you often have to bet early even when the markets are small because Teddy Covers releases his tout plays before very many books offer lines. He cares more about his record than whether people can get down on his plays, so he can advertise "56% winners!" or whatever even though winning 4u on his plays on the season is probably less than he charges for the service.

But the line they put out is soooooo bad, it has to get bet down. Atlanta -5 1/2? They're down 20 right now.

[tender222]

hey! i'm new and i've been doing okay in the wnba. today i like san ant plus 3, la over 159 and tulsa plus 7.5.

[Inspirited]

I'm new too. These lines movements seem wacky. Maybe I just haven't looked at line movements enough in NBA because most of the time I got them after noon eastern time. I don't know. I jumped on tulsa +8.5 in the early hours of the day because I suspected it would drop lower. I got the silver stars at +3.5 because I suspected it would drop lower. Earlier today I looked and it was at +4.5 and I was like oops, and now I see it at +2.5. I got the Fever at +5.5. Now it's +7.5.

[Sawyer]

Side betting in WNBA can be tricky but totals are not so hard. Had success with WNBA Totals last year. Let's see how it will go this season. I'm on IND-MIN OVER 151½ Today. This line is off by 7½ points according to my calculations. My line is 159. Good luck!

[infamousbacardi]

The one thing I learned early in this season has made me a couple winners of late, take SEATTLE at home on the ML!! Conservative plan and they rarely lose! Only once a week ago or so, and the last 2 games have seen great numbers in their favor. It will likely change fast, if it hasn't already, but they are ok for now.

[marcojuiceman]

i love the WNBA not hard for me to win. Took Conn 4.5 and over 154 even without Candace Parker. Phoenix to take care of Indiana +4.5

[Sawyer]

Nice value on Under for Pho-Atl & Over for Sa-Chi. Lines are off by 7-8 points according to my model.

[Sawyer]

I noticed I wrote Pho-Atl above. It's Pho-Ind of course. (no atl game today)

[Emily_Haines]

Finally got a couple to go my way

LA/CON over 154
SA/CHI under 159

Both totals ended within one point of the total I bet which leads me to believe that these lines are spot on and should not be wagering on them.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Both totals ended within one point of the total I bet which leads me to believe that these lines are spot on and should not be wagering on them.

I know what you mean. This one time I bet a team +3 in the NFL when every other book had +2.5 but they lost by 3 so I only pushed and I realized I was wasting my time.

[Tackleberry]

Both totals ended within one point of the total I bet which leads me to believe that these lines are spot on and should not be wagering on them.

That's an absolutely retarded way of judging whether or not you made a good bet.

[Adamho]

I have noticed extreme volatility in WNBA totals. I would think that there is money to be made by hedging this problem for linesman.

[Sawyer]

Finally got a couple to go my way

LA/CON over 154
SA/CHI under 159

Both totals ended within one point of the total I bet which leads me to believe that these lines are spot on and should not be wagering on them.

Of course you should wager. This is just one day. It happens in every sport.

NY+5.5, TUL-MIN U159 & NY-ATL O164 are value bets for today. GL!

[Emily_Haines]

I took MIN/TUL over 158

[Bluehorseshoe]

Again with Atlanta. They're -5??? A team that's 2-7.

They must be due.

[Emily_Haines]

Again with Atlanta. They're -5??? A team that's 2-7.

They must be due.

I think they get Lyttle back tonight but the way they been playing no way am I interested in laying 5.5

[sweetjones55]

I don't understand what's going on with the line moves at Pinny with the WNBA. They throw out a number that's not right and it gets "machine gunned" down to the right number. It's not like other line moves. Today's Atlanta game opened up Atlanta -5 1/2 at 11:01 am and by 11:06 am they're -1 1/2. [B]Someone is hitting the line at $250 a pop instead of waiting?

Some one probably has a few accounts and unloads on it at the same time.

[burgi]

Hey, this topic's name mass LOL

[usernametaken]

maybe we should go with anti consensus here. if the public likes it maybe bet against them

[marcojuiceman]

I don't understand what's going on with the line moves at Pinny with the WNBA. They throw out a number that's not right and it gets "machine gunned" down to the right number. It's not like other line moves. Today's Atlanta game opened up Atlanta -5 1/2 at 11:01 am and by 11:06 am they're -1 1/2. Someone is hitting the line at $250 a pop instead of waiting?

That's me

[Edward-RAS]

Our volume is a lot lower in July than it was in June, but YTD we're at a lifetime best win rate in the WNBA: http://www.hoopsedge.com/wnba-picks.php

[Edward-RAS]

I don't know about WNBA specifically, but in a small market like Arena, you often have to bet early even when the markets are small because Teddy Covers releases his tout plays before very many books offer lines. He cares more about his record than whether people can get down on his plays, so he can advertise "56% winners!" or whatever even though winning 4u on his plays on the season is probably less than he charges for the service.

Don't know for certain, but don't believe TC has won at arena last year or this year, and to our big surprise this year his releases did not have much impact on the market.

[Edward-RAS]

Someone is hitting the line at $250 a pop instead of waiting?

Some accounts take $500, and $250 is a decent amount to some people.

[Dark Horse]

Football must be coming up...

(RAS has arrived).