[Actionbrett]

Anyone monitor this or have an idea how often it does or does not happen?

[Justin7]

Guessing quickly, ... 26%.

[BigDaddy]

justin what about when a team is up by more than 21 at the half

how often does the 2nd half go under?

[Justin7]

justin what about when a team is up by more than 21 at the half

how often does the 2nd half go under?

If it is an efficient market, the 2h total and scoring drop in roughly equal amounts. Sharps pound the unders if the h2 total is too high, and these quickly get into line.

You raise a good point though. If one team has a big lead, the fair h2 total might be 4-5 points lower than what people would expect.

[Pancho sanza]

justin what about when a team is up by more than 21 at the half

how often does the 2nd half go under?

Who's leading, the dog or the fav, and what was the closing game line?

Makes a difference whether the team leading by 21 was the dog or fav.

[BigDaddy]

Favorite of course

that would tend to lead to lower 2nd half scores by running the ball i would assume

don't have the closing lines

just thought maybe justin would know

thanks for any help pancho

[Pancho sanza]

The unders (NFL) have not done well in those +21 or more fav leading scenarios last 10 years or so, I know, i've been betting them.

NCAA has done better but my criteria for playing them might be different than others.

[Pancho sanza]

Anyone monitor this or have an idea how often it does or does not happen?

ill guess about 20 %

[Arilou]

I will go over 24%. I will go under 26%. If the markets are fair, the 1H over is 50%, then the 2H over is 50% (since it includes all information so far), and the game total is then 99.9% to go over (there can be very strange cases where it won't). Unders are slightly better than overs in general, so I'm guessing we're a little under 25%.

[PRC]

enough guesses, someone look it up.

[danger]

315 out of 1,349 NFL games that I have data on 23.35%
687 out of 3,037 NCAAF games that I have data on, 22.62%

NFL:
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+
| Over Game | Over 1H | Over 2H | # Games  |
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+
|        -1 |      -1 |      -1 |      309 | 
|        -1 |      -1 |       0 |       21 | 
|        -1 |      -1 |       1 |      157 | 
|        -1 |       0 |      -1 |       17 | 
|        -1 |       0 |       1 |        2 | 
|        -1 |       1 |      -1 |      151 | 
|        -1 |       1 |       0 |        2 | 
|        -1 |       1 |       1 |        1 | 
|         0 |      -1 |       1 |       17 | 
|         0 |       0 |       1 |        1 | 
|         0 |       1 |      -1 |       18 | 
|         0 |       1 |       0 |        1 | 
|         1 |      -1 |      -1 |        2 | 
|         1 |      -1 |       1 |      132 | 
|         1 |       0 |       1 |       21 | 
|         1 |       1 |      -1 |      167 | 
|         1 |       1 |       0 |       15 | 
|         1 |       1 |       1 |      315 | 
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+

NCAAF
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+
| Over Game | Over 1H | Over 2H | # Games  |
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+
|        -1 |      -1 |      -1 |      729 | 
|        -1 |      -1 |       0 |       33 | 
|        -1 |      -1 |       1 |      335 | 
|        -1 |       0 |      -1 |       29 | 
|        -1 |       1 |      -1 |      358 | 
|        -1 |       1 |       0 |        1 | 
|        -1 |       1 |       1 |        3 | 
|         0 |      -1 |      -1 |        1 | 
|         0 |      -1 |       1 |       20 | 
|         0 |       0 |       0 |        1 | 
|         0 |       1 |      -1 |       20 | 
|         1 |      -1 |      -1 |       18 | 
|         1 |      -1 |       0 |        2 | 
|         1 |      -1 |       1 |      363 | 
|         1 |       0 |       1 |       30 | 
|         1 |       1 |      -1 |      379 | 
|         1 |       1 |       0 |       28 | 
|         1 |       1 |       1 |      687 | 
+-----------+---------+---------+----------+