1. 08-25-10 12:56 AM #1
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 2284

    Season Win math help

    I found a RSW prop for Houston Texans priced at o 8.5 +110. Pinny has it at o8 -196. Now I did some math and have arrived at a seemingly ridiculous edge for this wager making me question my process. Can anyone do a quick calc and tell me what they get??


    hmmm I just edited my formula and now get a 9% edge which makes more sense.
    Last edited by byronbb; 08-25-10 at 01:10 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 08-25-10 09:06 AM #2
    bztips
    bztips's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-10
    Posts: 283
    Betpoints: 6

    I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 08-25-10 11:27 AM #3
    Peregrine Stoop
    Peregrine Stoop's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 779

    don't fall into the Binomial tarp when trying to evaluate what a half game is worth
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 08-25-10 11:32 AM #4
    bztips
    bztips's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-10
    Posts: 283
    Betpoints: 6

    Quote Originally Posted by Peregrine Stoop View Post
    don't fall into the Binomial tarp when trying to evaluate what a half game is worth
    yeah, you're right.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 08-25-10 02:52 PM #5
    RickySteve
    SBR is a criminal organization
    RickySteve's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-06
    Posts: 3,415
    Betpoints: 187

    Quote Originally Posted by bztips View Post
    I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).
    Awesome post.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 08-25-10 03:22 PM #6
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 2284

    I was wondering what Pinny's limits will be on these RSW lines into september. Currently @ $700, will they open them up to bigger action?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 08-25-10 05:46 PM #7
    donjuan
    donjuan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-07
    Posts: 3,993
    Betpoints: 7537

    Quote Originally Posted by bztips View Post
    I'm sure it's too late now; but fyi your edge was 39% (ignoring the half-point difference in the over line).
    Ignoring a half point difference at any time is hazardous to your bankroll but doing so on RSW totals is pretty much bankroll death.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 08-25-10 06:05 PM #8
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 2284

    I placed o 8 -196 at about a breakeven of 8.6 essentially giving me +110 on a coinflip.



    edit


    to evaluate an over with excels binomdist is it 1-binomdist(w-1,16,p,1)???
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »