1st half vs full game debate

**Actionbrett** · 03-20-11, 03:22 PM

It is worth a discussion. So far in this tournament I have had two games that covd the 1H line but lost the full game line. Thats 4.2 units of profit.

I dont think I had a game where i would have not covd the 1H number but covd the full game line. I had Wisky -4.5 against Belmost but im not sure what the 1H score was.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 03:30 PM

I forgot to say that the dearth of books offering 1st halfs leads to a situation where your playing with people who know exactly what their doing, hence the bigger edge in their favor.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Actionbrett

It is worth a discussion. So far in this tournament I have had two games that covd the 1H line but lost the full game line. Thats 4.2 units of profit.

I dont think I had a game where i would have not covd the 1H number but covd the full game line. I had Wisky -4.5 against Belmost but im not sure what the 1H score was.

I understand your feelings but talking specfic games comes under the psychological question which I will address later in another thread. Its all about the brain putting bad beats down to bad luck but putting good beats down to expertise

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:50 PM

1st half play would show commitment to tempo which in theory leads to playing out to the stats. the other argument is that the volitile last period favors strongest thus an ability to cover the spread. wonderful game betting.

**Vaioice** · 03-21-11, 03:39 AM

i cap mostly 1H's... but for the contests and stuff they don't let u do that. IMO its actually "easier". less variable, certain team play well 1H's like Arizona, certain teams are better 2H's like Duke, Washington, and depending on home/away u get a better grasp of how they will perform. Revenge factor, motivation, let down, those come into play alot during 1H's. then @ half everything kinda settles down, and u get the stronger team performing better, etc. also late fouls don't come into play during 1H's. So totals are somewhat easier also. alot of luck too lol

-vai

**Wrecktangle** · 03-21-11, 08:06 AM

larger limits on full games is the driving factor if I had to choose, but if you are the same exact calced +EV on each, why not play each if same book allows or at dif books if not allowed?

**Vaioice** · 03-21-11, 11:18 AM

Today's top 1H plays...

1H Bama -2.5
New Mex away scores 33.7 n allows 33.1 1H margin 0.6
Alabama home scores 35.6 n allows 24.3 1H margin 11.3
New Mex Rating 83.16
Alabama Rating 85.63
sim avgs 1H score 34.4 - 29.2 for Alabama

1H N. Iowa -3.5
Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (N IOWA) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=63 PPG), after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game.
(40-13 since 1997.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.8, Opponent 26.8 (Average first half point differential = +7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).

1H Duquesne +.5
Play On - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (DUQUESNE) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (>=20/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher.
(27-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.9, Opponent 31.6 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)

**70kgman** · 03-21-11, 04:18 PM

I bet a lot of 1st half totals...

Pro's

- You are typically going to get a consistent predictable pace in the first half. Once you get later into the game, the score of the game starts to control the pace more than the natural flow of the two teams.

- With under wagers, you do not have to worry about OT and/or a barrage of intentional free throws in the final minute screwing you over.

- Full game and 1H line movement do not move in unison, so it is easy to catch some good numbers on 1H lines if you are timely.

Cons:

- It is a smaller time frame, so the variance off the shooting averages is going to be much more extreme than a full game sample size. You can lose easier with just a small amount of bad luck. A 1H under wager could be lost with something as simple as both teams combing to hit 7 or 8 shots in a row at one point in the half even if the pace is favorable toward the under, or a 1H over could be lost with something as simple as 3 minutes in the half without any points even if the pace is favorable toward the over.

- With 1st half overs, you wont be able to get any help from last second intentional free throws like you would in most full game scenarios. And the potential of OT helping is also not applicable.

**CanuckG** · 03-23-11, 03:50 PM

1H overs + 2H unders = $$$$

**JOHON8** · 03-24-11, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

- With under wagers, you do not have to worry about OT and/or a barrage of intentional free throws in the final minute screwing you over.

Big reason why I'm starting to like these bets, so much drama happens at the end of games.

**LLXC** · 03-24-11, 04:09 AM

If you find an edge capping 1st half, bet 1st half. If you find an edge capping game, bet game.

Don't look at the...I WOULD have won if I made the first half wager instead...if you capped the game.