Handicapping System Betting Heavy Moneyline Favorites

[kpoutlaw]

Okay, I live in Korea, where the Korean betting sites download odds from foreign sites and deliberately lowers the odds on the moneyline for every sport you can think of. Example: NBA Dallas 1.3 Minnesota 2.9 on a Korean Site Pinnacle 1.339/3.6 .

Now I met some guy who says despite the poor odds, he's been banned from a lot of the Korean sites, because he says he only bets heavy moneyline favorites ranging from 1.1 to 1.3, and if he bets around $1000 on two-three such games a day to win a little, he can achieve around a daily win rate of 10%, which at the end of the month, equals about 300%. (I'm sure he has losing days, but he claims to profit in the long run by trying to achieve a win rate of 95% only betting really heavy favorites) He says, of course, that careful analysis and study goes into each game, that he's not just betting a heavy moneyline favorite just because they are heavily favored.

He also told me that the Korean sites refer to bettors like him as "vipers" and hate them because they leech little by little off of the sites but do so profitably over the long run. Now, I know mathematically, this can be figured out, so I'm not asking for a mathematical answer or what the ROI% is on each such bet but whether this type of system has been successfully employed before by anyone? (I'm sure it's been tried but I am seriously comptemplating trying this after I run a sample test for a few months)

[Jankar]

Korean sites refer to bettors like him as "vipers" and hate them because they leech little by little off of the sites but so profitably over the long run.

[TRone]

Why doesn't your friend just wager at Pinnacle? His returns would be a lot higher. They accept Korean bettors.
I don't think a system of betting heavy favorites works in the long run. If you can be that certain that they will win, in most cases, they should cover the spread I would think. I personally know a person that lost a fortune betting on heavy favorites trying to chase losses.

[FourLengthsClear]

I am assuming that these sportsbooks are of the "fat and lazy" variety i.e. they post heavily juiced lines but pretty much never move them.
A good European example of this type of book would be Interwetten.

These are the easist type of book to beat for an advantage bettor (albeit you will be limited or booted) without having to only play odds in 1.10 to 1.30 range.

[JOHON8]

I can't properly answer you're question but I'm doing a similar thing with betfair and live betting. Taking heavily juiced PK and ML lines in the last 10-15 minutes of a soccer match. I make sure I've been watching the game all the way through, knowing the mind set behind the players/team and what they are playing for. I've just started out doing this and I'm 4-0. I know there will be a game eventually where a last minute goal will do it, but my research into the games make sure that I pick teams who won't get complacent in the last couple minutes.

Sometimes I even take +100 PK lines when a game is drawing until the last 15-20 minutes, taking the team most likely to win the game. So I think there are many ways of following this strategy, I wish I could find a community where more people discussed this kind of stuff in detail.

[the_mathman]

I am assuming that these sportsbooks are of the "fat and lazy" variety i.e. they post heavily juiced lines but pretty much never move them.
A good European example of this type of book would be Interwetten.

These are the easist type of book to beat for an advantage bettor (albeit you will be limited or booted) without having to only play odds in 1.10 to 1.30 range.

I must check Interwetten :-P

[kpoutlaw]

Thanks for all the replies guys. I'll definitely have to look into this a little more before I actually try anything. I was thinking of perhaps starting with $500 and going from there, seeing how many little profits I can squeak out before I lose one of those seemingly certain-to-win bets that screws up weeks and weeks of hard work.

FourLengths: I've definitely been exploiting some of the books when they release soft lines or when I have even the slightest mathematical edge (+ROI) on a bet, but I make sure to bet only a little at a time across different books to avoid getting banned or worse yet, jacked. They've definitely been adapting though. I remember last year when one of the books had all NHL unders at 1.85 - 1.90, but after getting pounded on the Unders, they now have dropped the Unders Odds to 1.7 to 1.85.

Johon8: I've tried that live betting strategy before, even parlayed multiple bets, like -3600 Under 4.5 (Score 1-0) with -8000 (3-0) and other 99% bets, and it's amazing to see how one of these teams always manages to score like 3 goals in the last 20 minutes to screw you. Good luck with your bets and let me know if you have any success.

[Nookx]

All your friend is doing is finding bad lines on his speciality (heavy money line favorites). This is no different then finding value in big underdogs, O/U's, or spreads.

[JOHON8]

Thanks for all the replies guys. I'll definitely have to look into this a little more before I actually try anything. I was thinking of perhaps starting with $500 and going from there, seeing how many little profits I can squeak out before I lose one of those seemingly certain-to-win bets that screws up weeks and weeks of hard work.

FourLengths: I've definitely been exploiting some of the books when they release soft lines or when I have even the slightest mathematical edge (+ROI) on a bet, but I make sure to bet only a little at a time across different books to avoid getting banned or worse yet, jacked. They've definitely been adapting though. I remember last year when one of the books had all NHL unders at 1.85 - 1.90, but after getting pounded on the Unders, they now have dropped the Unders Odds to 1.7 to 1.85.

Johon8: I've tried that live betting strategy before, even parlayed multiple bets, like -3600 Under 4.5 (Score 1-0) with -8000 (3-0) and other 99% bets, and it's amazing to see how one of these teams always manages to score like 3 goals in the last 20 minutes to screw you. Good luck with your bets and let me know if you have any success.

I'll definitely let you know. Also keep me up to tabs if you find a workable strategy as well. Great talking to you, GL.