Hello, first time posting but have learned much browsing through some of these forums.
I live in Korea and there are thousands of Korean betting sites that are ghetto and have terrible odds. They generally set their line at odds of 1.85 both ways for NBA spreads and totals, which is about -117 or -118 in American odds...Some have odds of 1.86 or even 1.88 but most 1.85.
Now they usually never change their lines except when there is a big line movement on offshore sites and that also usually takes several hours.
For example, a few days ago, they opened the Memphis O/U line at 200, and while the line had already jumped to 203.5 on most offshore sites, they kept the line at 200.5 for almost 3 hours before they finally changed it to the correct line. Same with the Houston O/U line, which they opened at 202.5 and finally changed to 204.5, several hours after the line had already jumped to 206 on most offshore sites.
Of course, I bet the over on those two games and won, but this kind of big point differential doesn't usually occur often. It's usually maybe a 1-1.5, maybe 2 point differential for totals and maybe a half point or 1 for the spread.
So my question is, do you think it is profitable in the long run to bet at odds of 1.85 or -118 if there is about a 1-2 point differential between the Korean sites and the closing line at offshore sites for totals? What if there is a half-point to 1 point differential on the point spread? I've had fairly good results but not enough of a sample size to determine whether this is profitable over the long run and I do know that at odds of 1.85, I would have to hit 54.05% to break-even. And of course I have to worry that the sites will catch on to the fact that I'm consistently betting into stale lines if this turns out to be profitable in the long run. Korean sites are notorious for what is known as the "Muk-tee" which literally means "eat and run."
Any thoughts or opinions would be appreciated.
I live in Korea and there are thousands of Korean betting sites that are ghetto and have terrible odds. They generally set their line at odds of 1.85 both ways for NBA spreads and totals, which is about -117 or -118 in American odds...Some have odds of 1.86 or even 1.88 but most 1.85.
Now they usually never change their lines except when there is a big line movement on offshore sites and that also usually takes several hours.
For example, a few days ago, they opened the Memphis O/U line at 200, and while the line had already jumped to 203.5 on most offshore sites, they kept the line at 200.5 for almost 3 hours before they finally changed it to the correct line. Same with the Houston O/U line, which they opened at 202.5 and finally changed to 204.5, several hours after the line had already jumped to 206 on most offshore sites.
Of course, I bet the over on those two games and won, but this kind of big point differential doesn't usually occur often. It's usually maybe a 1-1.5, maybe 2 point differential for totals and maybe a half point or 1 for the spread.
So my question is, do you think it is profitable in the long run to bet at odds of 1.85 or -118 if there is about a 1-2 point differential between the Korean sites and the closing line at offshore sites for totals? What if there is a half-point to 1 point differential on the point spread? I've had fairly good results but not enough of a sample size to determine whether this is profitable over the long run and I do know that at odds of 1.85, I would have to hit 54.05% to break-even. And of course I have to worry that the sites will catch on to the fact that I'm consistently betting into stale lines if this turns out to be profitable in the long run. Korean sites are notorious for what is known as the "Muk-tee" which literally means "eat and run."
Any thoughts or opinions would be appreciated.
