Mathematically This Works....But Why Doesn't It?

**jolmscheid** · 02-06-11, 10:47 AM

Again, I know it doesn't work or else people would do it, but I am just wondering why it doesn't work...

Thanks in advance!

**specialronnie29** · 02-06-11, 11:00 AM

never analyze this problem with chasing or changing bet size over multiple bets

that is your 1st mistake

if a bet is -EV it is -EV and no bet size tinkering will fix it

your second mistake is this. not all totals are o/u -110/-110 on each side. the games with a line of -118/+102 at mb are probably the totals that are -120/100 elsewhere and if -120/100 is correct then you need +110 on the under to break even and will need better than that to make money

**jolmscheid** · 02-06-11, 11:32 AM

Ok I understand....what if you go by Pinny for example, and if you can get a better line at Matchbook? I'm just fishing here now...HA HA...thanks for the help....

But even if a bet is -ev, if you can hit 48-50% isn't that mathematically gonna work still using my scenario above?

**saratoga1927** · 02-06-11, 12:19 PM

First off I have no idea how you "basically" equate totals to coin flips, I don't think they're anywhere close to equal.

**jolmscheid** · 02-06-11, 01:00 PM

I understand saratoga....longterm -110 totals and sides are on a mass scale 50%

**wrongturn** · 02-06-11, 01:40 PM

But if you only bet +odds, you won't get 50% long term. The +odds are there for a reason.

**jolmscheid** · 02-06-11, 01:44 PM

Thanks for the input wrongturn...like I say I know this probably doesn't work, but thought I'd ask...

**sharpcat** · 02-06-11, 03:25 PM

Chasing bets would be a great way to make 2 +EV bets -EV.

**u21c3f6** · 02-06-11, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by jolmscheid

... What am I missing? ....

I think you are miscalculating.

Assuming your wagers are at +100, 25 times you will lose 3 units or 75 units. 75 times you will win one unit for a net of 0.

Joe.

**jolmscheid** · 02-07-11, 10:37 AM

Joe you are correct my friend....

**xyz** · 02-07-11, 06:31 PM

Your strategy is flawed due to your assumption that +odds have no juice. Start there, then you will figure it out.

**donjuan** · 02-07-11, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Chasing bets would be a great way to make 2 +EV bets -EV.

Bet size cannot change EV from a positive number to a negative one.

**sharpcat** · 02-07-11, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

Bet size cannot change EV from a positive number to a negative one.

Is that the best you can do troll?

Over betting your edge will eventually lead to your ruin and to the depletion of your bankroll. Since you can not profit from +EV wagers when you have no bankroll I would surely consider it -EV long term.

**donjuan** · 02-07-11, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Is that the best you can do troll?

Over betting your edge will eventually lead to your ruin and to the depletion of your bankroll. Since you can not profit from +EV wagers when you have no bankroll I would surely consider it -EV long term.

Sorry but you are wrong, as usual. The term you are looking for is "-EG". You could bet your entire bankroll on something and it could still have +EV, though obviously it has -EG unless it has a 100% chance of winning.

**sharpcat** · 02-07-11, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

Sorry but you are wrong, as usual. The term you are looking for is "-EG". You could bet your entire bankroll on something and it could still have +EV, though obviously it has -EG unless it has a 100% chance of winning.

You really felt the need to troll for that?

Though I am honored that you scour this board looking for opportunities to point out every minor flaw in my posts that you can find in an attempt to increase your own feelings of self worth.

**donjuan** · 02-07-11, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

You really felt the need to troll for that?

Though I am honored that you scour this board looking for opportunities to point out every minor flaw in my posts that you can find in an attempt to increase your own feelings of self worth.

Why are you so touchy about criticism? It was something that is obviously wrong, and I corrected it. This is the Think Tank. If you want to get away with blatant inaccuracies go to Players Talk.

**sharpcat** · 02-07-11, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by donjuan

Why are you so touchy about criticism? It was something that is obviously wrong, and I corrected it. This is the Think Tank. If you want to get away with blatant inaccuracies go to Players Talk.

I don't mind criticism. I do mind when someone follows me around looking to discredit me every chance they get because of an argument that took place 6 months ago.

With that said do you have anything to contribute to the original topic? like you said this is the Think Tank and the OP was looking for help on his question. We are looking for contributors here not spell checkers.

If the OP asked what the weather was like outside and if he should wear a jacket and I told him it was freezing, its not helping much for you to point out that it is actually 34 degrees and therefore is technically not freezing. Either way he is still going to need a jacket and he understood what was meant.

**CaptainPrice** · 02-08-11, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

I think you are miscalculating.

Assuming your wagers are at +100, 25 times you will lose 3 units or 75 units. 75 times you will win one unit for a net of 0.

Joe.

THIS.

Plus i dont think theres any way to win on the basis on knowing its all gonna even out at 50%

[pm me if there is

**masticore** · 02-08-11, 01:01 AM

from 50/50 example to another....

3 horse race

Horse A,B and C

A win 70% vs B
A win 70% vs C

Horse A will not be fav. to win race

regards
mikke

**donjuan** · 02-08-11, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by sharpcat

I don't mind criticism. I do mind when someone follows me around looking to discredit me every chance they get because of an argument that took place 6 months ago.

With that said do you have anything to contribute to the original topic? like you said this is the Think Tank and the OP was looking for help on his question. We are looking for contributors here not spell checkers.

If the OP asked what the weather was like outside and if he should wear a jacket and I told him it was freezing, its not helping much for you to point out that it is actually 34 degrees and therefore is technically not freezing. Either way he is still going to need a jacket and he understood what was meant.

Yeah, I follow you around. LOL. Your analogy, as expected, is awful.

**CyberSleuth** · 02-12-11, 11:04 PM

Interesting topic. Thanks for the information.

**icancount2one** · 02-14-11, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

Sorry but you are wrong, as usual. The term you are looking for is "-EG". You could bet your entire bankroll on something and it could still have +EV, though obviously it has -EG unless it has a 100% chance of winning.

What is EG? I have never heard this term before and can't find it anywhere. A google search for -EG turns up diddly.

I suspect what he was getting at is that martingaling isn't a good idea, even if you have a tiny edge.

**spongerat** · 02-14-11, 03:05 AM

I've heard EU for expected utility in economics and game theory but never EG. Care to enlighten us?

**u21c3f6** · 02-14-11, 07:15 AM

Expected Growth.

If you know your edge, and that can be a big if, you can use the Kelly formula to calculate the % amount of your bankroll to wager to achieve maximum growth of your bankroll. As pointed out by donjuan above, just because you have an edge (and not a 100% guarantee), it does not mean that you can wager your whole bankroll.

For a specific edge, there is a specific % of your bankroll to wager that will maximize the growth of your bankroll. If you wager a larger % amount, over time your bankroll will actually be less than if you had wagered the correct %. And if you wager far in excess of your edge, there is a high probabilty that you will go bankrupt.

Joe.

**jolmscheid** · 02-14-11, 10:48 AM

Thanks for all the info guys

**PokerDave** · 02-15-11, 03:09 AM

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MAN HAVE I GOT A LOT TO LEARN.
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