I'd like to know are you guaranteed to win long term playing with +EV even if it is a very slim advantage? How do you figure what your profit will be if you knew say for instance you had a +EV of x% longterm? Does having +EV on your side help you out more in the short term, the long term or equally? Thanks for your help.
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Define to me what you think +EV meansComment -
In this instance I'm thinking more along the lines of "house edge" on say for instance a table game in a casino. Every casino game has a -EV so you are expected to lose long term playing it. What if the player had a +EV on a game, a players edge of 1%, would he be guaranteed to win at that game long term is basically what I'd like to know?Comment -
1. The definition of "long term" needs to be established. Your score after 6 months at 20-40 hours of active wagering per week on whatever game is a good measurement, if we are speaking to casino games. Simply playing 200 deals or hands isn't going to tell you much, as even a truly bad game, like keno, can win short-term.
2. Achieving +EV assumes you play the game perfectly, or very nearly so (let's say 1 mistake per 400-500 plays is common - a game like Jacks or Better VP, however, can be learned to perfection)
2a. Mistakes often look like correct plays to the average bettor of the said game. You must know exactly when to hold the pair, go for the flush, etc. . . down to the last cent of EV in order to get, maintain, and achieve a level of play at +EV. You must keep multiple counts, including insurance counts, to scratch out some edge at blackjack, and even then, you have to identify casinos that will permit games to be conducted in such a way you can hold your edge. Blackjack played sharply only provides a small (0.5%-1.5%) edge, and that requires a cooperative casino and dealer: i.e. - Great deck penetration and favorable rules such as late surrenders.
3. Whatever game it is, you MUST have the bankroll to survive the swings naturally inherent to ANY gambling game. Even flat betting at sports has swings. People can and do lose many games in a row.
4. Google search "risk of ruin calculator" - You should be able to measure bankroll, simulations of games instantaneously with a projected amount of cash for use across. . . etc - You generally need 10,000 units (a unit being your common wager) to play without risk of ruin.
Unless you locate a good casino with promotions or giant progressives unhit (I've seen 3 casinos with progressive +EV KENO of all things), you'll do well to locate anything anything that pays more than $1 profit over time on $100 of action. Treat it like an hourly wage.
Example: I can get 750 hands of video poker into play each hour. I play perfect jacks or better strategy. I know the slot club pays .6% cashback.
Results:
25c JoB - 99.56% payback, $1.25 per hand
I know the game perfectly - 0% reduction
slot club incentive - .60%
Result = 100.16%
750 hands in play per hour - machine does not lock up for hand pays/w2g
750 x 1.25 = $937.50 in play per hour
$1.50 hour profit is average result
A good simulation program will show how many hands it requires to achieve the calculated percentage return. The average always happens or gets within hundredths of a percent, but it takes time. Thousands of hands.Last edited by ok now what; 01-11-11, 10:27 PM.Comment -
Most welcome. It took a hell of a tuition to learn this much, and many are better at this than I.Comment -
Knowing the correct strategy and not making mistakes are hardly the same thing.Comment -
In simple terms, you are not guaranteed to win when betting with +EV, especially in the short term.
Just as you can win at blackjack (which has a slight -EV), you can lose.
In the long run however, it is statistically very unlikely that you will lose if your bets are genuinely +EV.Comment -
If it's +EV in the long run you can't lose..you just have to play enough to get the positive expected value. It's why the casino's in vegas don't lose money in the long run, they have +EV
For OP if you're talking about sports betting +EV situations as long as you factor in the juice on the bet and are still +EV you will make money with those bets long term. Short term it's a gamble but +EV will still give you the best chance short term.
Look at gambling like a career, your job is to make +EV bets. Even if it's a hobby you still need to treat it like a job and be disciplined if you want to make money long term. You make +EV bets day in and day out and the money will follow. You will hit streaks, both winning and losing, you can't let them change your betting style. Don't get over confident when winning, and don't get gun shy when losing. The catch is knowing the bets are +EV which is the hard part. But if you do know they are +EV you will make money long term.
Use the betting tools, streak calculator. Play around with losing -EV bets and you'll still get winning streaks. So short term means nothing in gambling, that's why it's called gambling. The casinos in Vegas will happily pay you when you win, and then do everything they can to keep you at the tables even comp your room. They want you to keep playing because the house has the edge and if you keep playing a -EV game you are guaranteed to lose. If you have an edge in a game, +EV, you are the casino and are guaranteed to profit if you keep playing and can ride out variance.Comment -
Finding + EV is only half the battle.
The stock market is +EV for the last 100 years yet most people still lose money.
Patience/discipline/money management/good record keeping etc are a big part of the equation.Comment -
And finding that +EV is getting increasingly rare. You're right about the stock market. . . although day trading has changed the climate so badly in the last 12+ years that certain indices one could easily use in the past are losing reliability.Comment -
money management has to be included in any EV+ wagering discussion. or else u would just crap ur Ev+ won bets away.
is there EV+ wagers in the world?
yes. 1. matchplays are one method. 2. poker 3. blackjack - perect basic stratedgy for the amount of decks being used. and 3a progressive wagering or 3b card counting. 4. possibly a roulette system i know of, but a large bankroll is required.
so ev+ is another way of saying the game i play is beatable.
figure out how to beat the game, and then drop money management techniques in place. and u should be a winner.Comment
