pinny's stopper

[Peregrine Stoop]

If I was Thremp, I wouldn't take up invite to SBR Bash. He might also go 'missing' if he does.

[wrongturn]

Don't know what to argue about. Definitely a mix of auto plus manual control close to post time. Why? They also lay off actions on exchange and how much are matched at exchange will affect how they move the line.

[sportyla]

thanks just7 for infors, you open my mind about the pinny stopper

If Pinny offers -111/+101 as a stopper, they get almost no bets at -111. They do get some at +101.

If they offered -112/+102, they would still get almost nothing at-112. The same chumps that lay -111 will lay -112 when -110 is everywhere... but Pinnacle's chump ratio is less than others. They would get almost the same volume on both sides at -112/+102 as at -111/+102.

The side they are offering +101/+102, they will get much more action.

Consider this position:
At an average price of -107/+103, Pinny takes 100k on fav -107, 50k on dog +103. They don't want a 50k naked position on a game where they have no opinion. The price crept up, and they put up the stopper: -111/+101 when most of the market is -110/-110. If the fav wins, they are down 50k. If the dog wins, they win 52k surebets

2 hours to post: In the next hour, they take at 10k at -111 and 40k at +101. On this 1 hour of bets, their (1-hour) position is fav: win 30k; dog: lose 29.3k. The new net position (1 hour before post) is: Fav wins: -20k; dog: win 22.7k. In the last 10 minutes, they might take effective 0-juice positions to lower the volatility to as close to 0 as they choose...

The stopper doesn't prevent all bets at that price, but it drastically slows the flow of money on that side. And, they could usually lay off as much as they want at the market price of -110. Offering -112/+102 instead of -111/+101 means they pay a higher premium to reduce risk, with no real added benefit.

[CHUBNUT]

Its great reading posts by people who know what their talking about. Thanks Thremp and Pokerjoe.

[Thremp]

Don't know if you folks follow Pinny. But I was just watching some Wash St line movement. It was the last hour so it MUST HAVE BEEN ON MANUAL. The lines manager at Pinnacle decided to move into an arb with Cris, but like 15s later thought it was a shitty idea and then moved right back out. Dunno if he got his fill of action or what not.

Happens all the time. I guess they just really need to fill up on a line, move into an arb with Cris, then move back out. I wonder why they always move back out. Seems so weird. Always happens really fast too.

Freaky.

What have you folks noticed?

ETA: Sick trap line with Wash -3 -101. ITS NOW -3.5 -108. MUST BE LOLLIN ALL THE WAY TO THE FUKKIN BANK TAKING IN ALL THAT ACTION ON THAT PRICE.

[Pokerjoe]

It's not that complicated. Pinny (or any book) has two major objectives when moving lines:

1) Sharpen the line so that both sides will offer a -EV proposition
2) Attempt to balance action to manage risk in accordance with the book's policy

When a line first opens, limits are low and the objective is mainly (1). It's pretty simple to create a set of rules to automove the line based upon incoming wagers. Closer to game time, the priority shifts from mostly (1) to a mix between (1) and (2). Thus the need for discretion on the part of the line manager on duty.

Nutshell.

[Thremp]

Pinny linesman got tomorrow paper. TO THE FUKKIN BANK.

[wrongturn]

Perhaps Pinny noticed sharp money came on Washington St and decided to take some position on that as well?

[chap]

Pinny, ideal book, top book for non US players

[Thremp]

Perhaps Pinny noticed sharp money came on Washington St and decided to take some position on that as well?

The real sharps are betting +3 -107 instead of +3.5 -110 for same size limits IMO.

[LT Profits]

The real sharps are betting +3 -107 instead of +3.5 -110 for same size limits IMO.

Thremp, you are one of the sharpest tools in the shed, but is this post sarcastic? Seems 3 cents should make +3.5 worthwhile.

[Thremp]

I thought the sarcasm was obvious. I apologize if you thought I was in earnest.

But please, the standard for being sharp here is not being completely retarded. I still make egregious laughtacular errors. Luckily I manage to find enough people cloning First Score TD props from the Super Bowl to the Pro Bowl to keep me fed and clothed.