Beating Pinny closer is not as profitable as it used to be.

**Winner_13** · 01-03-11, 05:57 PM

Put it this way- since the start of NFL, i have bet on nfl, Ncaa fb(which is killing the bowls pretty bad regular season)
Nba(quite selective) and it has not been profitable!

So a losing NFL season I realize its A VERY SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.
I am just disappointed by the results.

**Winner_13** · 01-03-11, 05:58 PM

However I am pretty selective and usually play when I see oppurtunities like tennesse which closes +10 -138 other side +124 ( at pinny)
And I have tennesse +10-120 ON A 20 cent line book!

**That Foreign Guy** · 01-03-11, 06:24 PM

I beat the Pinny closer on three games last night. I lost them all. Clearly their closing lines are worthless.

**JED** · 01-03-11, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by That Foreign Guy

I beat the Pinny closer on three games last night. I lost them all. Clearly their closing lines are worthless.

**byronbb** · 01-03-11, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Winner_13

I mean the last second b4 tip close.
Ex tennesse closes +10-138 at pinny other side +124

I have tennesse +10 -120!!!

I don't want to break down there no vig line and then calculate my edge, but on a play like this I believe it is obvious that I have the best of it.
After 4 months of doing this the results aren't quite as good as I hoped a little negative.

This is hardly crushing the line @ close, plus if you don't know your edge here then how are you sizing your bets??

**Winner_13** · 01-03-11, 11:54 PM

I am flat betting.
Sometimes I calculate pinnys non vig line and my non vig line if more then 2-3% edge raise it up by a half unit or full unit

**byronbb** · 01-04-11, 12:49 AM

I am sure you have heard of kelly staking and I recommend it. I am not a expert or anything but I went from flat betting agony to the glorious swings of kelly betting but to much quicker profits. If kelly does anything it makes sure you are not overbetting which is DEADLY. A half-kelly stake of your -120 bet calls for a 2 unit wager. PLus a 5% edge on -120 is more valuable than @ +200 and bet size should reflect this. If you are flat betting both of these the same when you have an equal % edge you are making a mistake.

**goblue12** · 01-04-11, 06:53 AM

Tighten up if you are losing. Start betting half kelly (or even 1/5th kelly for a 0% risk of ruin) and play only arbs. You should be playing a lot more games. Tennis in the early morning (midnight - noon), soccer in the afternoon (10 am - 4 pm), U.S sports at night (5 pm - midnight). There's hundreds of arbs available daily.

**Arilou** · 01-04-11, 02:21 PM

It's a general rule that if you start using X to measure Y, X will often cease to indicate Y. If your goal was not explicitly to beat Pinnacle's closing number, and you beat it anyway, then either there's something else going on or more likely you need more time. If your goal is explicitly to beat the closing Pinnacle number rather than an overall market number, then that could be warping your behavior.

**statnerds** · 01-04-11, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by durito

Give it 5,000 plays. You should be there in 30 years or so.

Fukk I love this guy

Basically what he said. While I am not as prolific as Durito (only placed 408 wagers in December) I can say volume is key. 50 plays over 4 months and at least 2 sports?

As for not revealing the amounts, it would be simply a paste special in Excel from your Sportsbook followed by deleting columns, or not, and then pasting it here.

Maybe you should cross reference the Closing Lines you beat for RLM to see if there is a correlation. And the Pinny will never win 100%. Sounds like you should have more opportunities than 50 in the given time frame. If you aren't taking advantage of every opportunity, how can you make any conclusions at all? Variance is bad enough, but randomly selecting plays from the entire population might augment the already negative effect.

**Thremp** · 01-04-11, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

Fukk I love this guy Basically what he said. While I am not as prolific as Durito (only placed 408 wagers in December) I can say volume is key. 50 plays over 4 months and at least 2 sports? As for not revealing the amounts, it would be simply a paste special in Excel from your Sportsbook followed by deleting columns, or not, and then pasting it here. Maybe you should cross reference the Closing Lines you beat for RLM to see if there is a correlation. And the Pinny will never win 100%. Sounds like you should have more opportunities than 50 in the given time frame. If you aren't taking advantage of every opportunity, how can you make any conclusions at all? Variance is bad enough, but randomly selecting plays from the entire population might augment the already negative effect.

What does this mean?

**Winner_13** · 01-04-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

Fukk I love this guy

Basically what he said. While I am not as prolific as Durito (only placed 408 wagers in December) I can say volume is key. 50 plays over 4 months and at least 2 sports?

As for not revealing the amounts, it would be simply a paste special in Excel from your Sportsbook followed by deleting columns, or not, and then pasting it here.

Maybe you should cross reference the Closing Lines you beat for RLM to see if there is a correlation. And the Pinny will never win 100%. Sounds like you should have more opportunities than 50 in the given time frame. If you aren't taking advantage of every opportunity, how can you make any conclusions at all? Variance is bad enough, but randomly selecting plays from the entire population might augment the already negative effect.

i have a much bigger sample size than 50 plays.
I said I will post those AS AN EXAMPLE TO SHOW U THAT I AM BEATING THE LINE or to ask If I am doing it right!! I didn't say anything about how I have just done it for 50 plays.
Its been 4 months.

**Winner_13** · 01-04-11, 07:04 PM

I also factor in RLM and all that and make sure I am on the sharp side.

I AM NOT SAYING IT DOESNT WORK.
I am just saying it's not as profitable as I hoped it would be during the NFL season
Avged 6-9 plays on sunday NFL

**impper** · 01-05-11, 07:01 PM

Okay, so it's not as profitable as you hoped it would be. So try again next year, unless you figure out something better. Good luck

**Peregrine Stoop** · 01-05-11, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by impper

Okay, so it's not as profitable as you hoped it would be. So try again next year, unless you figure out something better. Good luck

plz let me know if you find something better, too

**Dark Horse** · 01-06-11, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by Winner_13

I also factor in RLM and all that and make sure I am on the sharp side.

I AM NOT SAYING IT DOESNT WORK.
I am just saying it's not as profitable as I hoped it would be during the NFL season
Avged 6-9 plays on sunday NFL

It was an unusual NFL season. Pinny (leans) may not have been as sharp as usual.

**statnerds** · 01-06-11, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by Thremp

What does this mean?

Fairly certain you know what it means.

But to play along with you

Premise is beating Pinny Closer is not good

No data presented but

Should have multiple opportunities daily to find a number weaker than Pinny

Assuming he has enough outs (More than one place to wager)

So, if he had 5 opportunities daily, but was betting 3 per week (These are made up numbers to merely illustrate a point)

So he presents data that covers 3 instances per week of beating the Closer, when it could/should be 35 per week (3 is a much smaller number than 35)

So now we are drawing conclusions based on evidence that excludes the majority of the population (opportunities, ie chance to beat the Closer)

I'm sure we could all write a few pages on Variance, including yourself.

Damn, wanted to write more, but have to go to the gym now. We can continue later of course...