Why Bet Full game lines with 2nd half/Live Lines on the market?

[BettingWizard]

I think you will find that you will have a much better record if you just lay off game lines, and bet for 2nd half value.


So why not just wait til halftime and only bet if your team is behind? Much better way to succeed imo.

[yak merchant]

Mainly because if you have a good model, process, ouija board, whatever that picks winners in the long run the team should be on the winning side of the line at half. Therefore no real 2nd half value. If you only bet when your team is "losing", you are surely losing more value on all the "no bets" where you were right and they were winning at half and will cover the full game, than any increased win percentage by only taking team that are losing at half. Sure there are times when the 2nd half is alot easier, and if you have some model,process,ouija board that is 2nd half specific then great, but in general if you have a +EV model, and you like a team before the game starts waiting until half will be counter productive. If you bet alot of favorites and don't really have a winning model, then yes in actuality if you watch games and only bet teams that you "like" that are down at half you may do better. However I don't have any hard statistical proof at this point, but from experience if one side of a game is a "public" play where a large percentage of people are on one side, I believe the long term 2nd half value is usually on the team that is winning.

[That Foreign Guy]

Because if your team is behind at the half then your Pre-Game model is no longer valid?

Ahh fuhgedit, your plan is clearly flawless.

[Bulldog-53]

I personally have stopped betting full NFL games and dont just 1st half wagers and my winning % has increased 10-15%, easily.

[astrodomer]

actually I have found over the years he is right.....I feel like im getting a steal at halftime taking the team that was -14 but now in reality they are -3 for the whole game and you get them at -110......I love the stratagy!!

[LegitBet]

hearty food for thought

[IrishTim]

That's probably a good question. I'm starting to bet more derivatives and forget about full game stuff.

I personally have stopped betting full NFL games and dont just 1st half wagers and my winning % has increased 10-15%, easily.

You're winning 60-65% of your 1H NFL wagers? Hard to believe.

[BettingWizard]

great example for today Giants ML was -550 or so

Halftime you get them at +5.5 for the game at +100

[Reload]

It's all about value and position. If you feel the game line has value, take it.

[Vesuvius]

great example for today Giants ML was -550 or so

Halftime you get them at +5.5 for the game at +100

What if the Giants came out cruising like expected, up 35-0 at the half. Then you would have "lost value" by not taking them before the game started.

[BettingWizard]

what's worse, potentially losing -550, or laying off what would have been a +100 win?


Let's say for argument's sake, the Giants comeback and lose by 3 pts. +100 in your account instead of -550. 650 dollar swing

or they get blown out like they are right now. -100 instead of -550

[brumbies]

Yeah I wonder about this strategy too. Anyone has statistical info?

[noyb]

Mainly because if you have a good model, process, ouija board, whatever that picks winners in the long run the team should be on the winning side of the line at half. Therefore no real 2nd half value. If you only bet when your team is "losing", you are surely losing more value on all the "no bets" where you were right and they were winning at half and will cover the full game, than any increased win percentage by only taking team that are losing at half. Sure there are times when the 2nd half is alot easier, and if you have some model,process,ouija board that is 2nd half specific then great, but in general if you have a +EV model, and you like a team before the game starts waiting until half will be counter productive. If you bet alot of favorites and don't really have a winning model, then yes in actuality if you watch games and only bet teams that you "like" that are down at half you may do better.

this is spot on. if you have a 2nd Half model of some sort, then bet 2nd halves. If you have a Full game model of some sort, then bet full games. If you have no model at all and are just betting whatever you like it won't matter what you'll bet.

[Pancho sanza]

Yeah I wonder about this strategy too. Anyone has statistical info?

Lets just say you'll be broke by x mas if you follow betting wizards advice.

[Brp27345]

here is all I can give u guys to help out the conversation... Applied advantage of 10.5 plus points... so for example a 5 point fav down at the half and u can get them +5.5 or more for the game...

I guess you guys are talking about applied advantage and betting with it... well here is the reality with applied advantage in the NBA over the past 2 seasons...

Home teams with this 10.5 and over applied advantage are 53-49... so nothing...
Road teams with this 10.5 and over applied advantage are 21-31... so even less than nothing...

just something to throw into the convo here... this does NOT work for the NBA... but go ahead and try if u feel lucky!

[Grind-It-Out]

what's worse, potentially losing -550, or laying off what would have been a +100 win?


Let's say for argument's sake, the Giants comeback and lose by 3 pts. +100 in your account instead of -550. 650 dollar swing

or they get blown out like they are right now. -100 instead of -550

You act like you knew that the Giants were going to be losing at halftime. In that case, why not bet Dallas first half?

[LegitBet]

this question intrigues me so for its greater cross sport applications if we can establish an all encompassing given

[BettingWizard]

I will start tracking what I'm talking about, every day I will post what I like for Full game, but only bet 2nd half if there's "value"

Tonight I liked Suns over 216, first half line was 109, so i will play 2nd half over if first half under hits

[Peregrine Stoop]

look at the limits in various markets; full game usually has much, much, much higher limits

[BettingWizard]

no play, hit right at 109. I will also track the hit-rate of the full game compared to just betting 2nd half

[BettingWizard]

Also Liked Pitt and didnt' bet full game


Live Bet Pitt +10 -120

[Data]

I think you will find that you will have a much better record if you just lay off game lines, and bet for 2nd half value.

This is only true while filed under "bet less - lose less" category which is clearly PT material.

[wrongturn]

If you think 2H bet has value, that is because your team already failed the 1H. Also what if your team covered 1H by a mile? You missed a good full game bet, and now face a not so good 2H bet.

[Trucker George]

if you have a good model, process, ouija board, whatever that picks winners...

Well, I prefer voodoo rituals or casting runes, or perhaps reading entrails followed up with a nice little bring-me-winners rain dance type ritual.

But to each their own!

But seriously, this here:

It's all about value and position. If you feel the game line has value, take it.

[brumbies]

Lets just say you'll be broke by x mas if you follow betting wizards advice.

What about fading?

[Tomato]

great example for today Giants ML was -550 or so

Halftime you get them at +5.5 for the game at +100

elohel

[subs]

i like soccer 4 live betting and have 2 systems going. works ok 4 me - nothing to brag about though. i have a small edge (i think), after 8 months i'm up 15%. like i said nothing to get excited about but if a square like me can make a little change there is probably something in it.

any1 else into live footy betting?

[mikeanite]

would this strategy work for an american bookie?

[LegitBet]

seems like everyone can use this...trying to find scalp opportunies..less less time for market to equalize, right?

[Peregrine Stoop]

no, it's bad because the line moves real quick at first and then equalizes. So, you often get a bad bet in and then not the other side.

[Monte]

obviously bullshit, but what is true is that on 2nd half lines it is much easier to get a good line.
If you think that is wise to try to catch some "steam" there, not here to make a point for or against it.

[Inkwell77]

here is all I can give u guys to help out the conversation... Applied advantage of 10.5 plus points... so for example a 5 point fav down at the half and u can get them +5.5 or more for the game...

I guess you guys are talking about applied advantage and betting with it... well here is the reality with applied advantage in the NBA over the past 2 seasons...

Home teams with this 10.5 and over applied advantage are 53-49... so nothing...
Road teams with this 10.5 and over applied advantage are 21-31... so even less than nothing...

just something to throw into the convo here... this does NOT work for the NBA... but go ahead and try if u feel lucky!

This is such an awesome post.

Do you have any info about college b-ball? Would love to see the statistics about betting college second half!

[Brp27345]

This is such an awesome post. Do you have any info about college b-ball? Would love to see the statistics about betting college second half!

no man sorry... just NBA... but thanks for the comment anyways

[BadBeatBodog]

You're winning 60-65% of your 1H NFL wagers? Hard to believe.

I'm guessing he's now winning 10-15% of them.

[Peregrine Stoop]

I'm guessing he's now winning ~50% of them