I'm having some trouble figuring out what formulas to use for developing a model. I've heard Kelly and standard deviation, but are there some others that have benefited others?
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I really suggest that you go back through previous threads in the think tank, especially before asking vague, open-ended questions. Give it a try on your own for a while and then ask specific quantifiable questions. Just a suggestion.
What you are asking is the equivalent of going to a carpentry forum and saying you've heard of nails.Comment -
I'm simply asking what are some of the more useful mathematical formulas. It may save me some time instead of using one that is deemed useless. And if I could understand the lingo, then I'd know from previous threads, but with words like quantifiable, it only confuses and discourages me, along with the public. I also disagree with your analogy. If I were to ask what a formula was, it would relate more, to me saying I've heard of nails. What I am asking is what are some of the best formulas/nails. There cannot be an elaborate answer to everything. Sure, many formulas are beneficial, but this is a clear, open and shut question, that requires an open and shut answer.
1. Kelly Criterion
2. Poisson
3. ?Last edited by Firefox14; 11-07-10, 06:18 PM.Comment -
I'm not trying to be impolite. I am just suggesting that you do a search for some books on the more basic aspects first. Once you feel comfortable with that do some searching through the threads in here to learn from questions others have answered. It just seems like you haven't tried very hard and you expect people to just tell you "the magic formula". Seriously, I'm not trying to be a dick. Just root around and when you come across something you don't understand, ask a question with a specific purpose - kinda like this:
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Formulas are useful if you have a reason and/or need to use them.
For example, I have never nor do I anticipate ever using Poisson. I use Kelly but not to actually build my "models" which typically do not have team and/or player stats
. I use Kelly to help determine which and what kind of edges (edge/odds) are best and then use Kelly to help size my wagers. Other than Kelly, I only use basic math and algebra. The most "complicated" I get is figuring out the standard deviation of a sample set to test for validity.
There is no one way to go about this.
Good luck. Joe.Comment -
Judging by this thread and the other "Ironic" thread you started, it kinda seems like a waste of time for you to delve any deeper into sports betting. You won't be successful.Comment -
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why do u need a formula
who ever u think wins put $ on it
simple as that buddy
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I would suggest reading a book about the basics to get yourself up to speed. "Conquering Risk" and "Weighing the odds in Sports Betting" are two books that could fill you in on the basic knowledge you need as well as show you a thing or two about developing models. I've only begun my work with models in the past year and its gonna take a lot of time and tinkering to get it right. Absorb all the information you can. Good luck!Comment -
try Mathletics - it's loaded with formulasComment -
Firefox you sure like to take lumps. Everytime I click on your threads you are bending over. When will it end? Do you like PAIN?Comment -
I'm just asking the questions that most are too embarrassed and/or not man enough to ask. Don't believe for one second that these aren't the same questions that thousands ponder. But I'm learning to do my own research, as others have graciously advised. And I'm not into getting bent over either. But, if that's one's thing, to each his own.
Last edited by Firefox14; 11-08-10, 04:04 PM.Comment -
Don't worry about mathematical formulas. And don't set out to create a model. Both are the result of a process of thought. (it is not enough to merely understand how to use a math formula; you have much more power if you understand the thought process that is expressed in the formula). Instead, try to get a first foot in the door. If you can do that you're on your way.
Let a question come to you. Let's say a NBA team has a strong and deep bench. Most people would read right over that, if it was mentioned in a newspaper. But could it translate into an edge? When, in which quarter, do they come on the floor?
Are you willing to spend an hour to see if there's an initial edge? If there should be an initial edge, let your mind revolve around it until another question pops up. Let your questions be your guide. They pop up in your mind for a reason. They define the thought process that will (or will not) lead to the model or formula. Listen to them. Be comfortable with them. Do not, restlessly, rely on others to answer them for you. A question does not mean that you're missing something. Rather, it means that it is within your ability to attract the answer. You do not need to be a math wizard to be successful in sports betting. You merely need to be able to ask the questions that most people don't.
Be careful who you mix with while you develop your skill. That process is not unlike growing a small seed into a tree. During the sensitive early stages of growth you need a supportive environment. This forum does not qualify as such. Personally, I have never met a more negative collection of minds than some of these math people in this think tank, and if you believe in their misplaced arrogance they do have the power to squash your early initiative. Avoid them until you've found your way.Last edited by Dark Horse; 11-08-10, 05:00 PM.Comment -
Yes Dark Horse, a very nice post considering the context of this thread I think!
Firefox, I think you are making the beginning more complicated than it has to be, this is about imagining how you can use the numbers to predict future results, start very basic and refine it as you go. Also note Arwar's suggestion above, "mathletics" is a book with loads of formulas some of them maybe too complicated to start but some of them would represent good starting points.
Also as I stated before and as another poster also stated in one of your threads, look in other areas besides just sports betting because people doing research on other subjects will more readily share their models with you -- I would sugest getting a book on
Quantitative Research Methods
this information is not proprietary to sports betting, relax, start at the beginning and grow from there!
Good Luck!!Comment -
While I would agree with Dark Horse, the fact remains: if you are a rube with math you've got no fvking chance in the modeling game. None, NADA, Zero, zip, zilch.
90% of you Americans couldn't add up 10 3-digit numbers and get the same answer twice. And you call yourselves a "Technical Society." The Chinese, who can add, are busy eating your lunch since W has run off all the immigrants who were attending your universities, staying in the USA, and making you dumb schmucks rich by job creation mostly in the high tech area.
Get used to ramen noodles, America.Last edited by Flying Dutchman; 11-10-10, 08:51 AM.
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