I have a question about how the push probabilities are computed in the half point calculator. Are those based on historical data or some other formula? Thanks.
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Thanks for the quick response. I plan to keep track of the following way in using the push probabilities from the half point calculator:
Leaving the middle open. For example, today's NBA game between Detroit and Milwaukee. I would bet on +112 Milwaukee +5.5 and +108 Detroit -6.5. This would leave the middle open at Detroit winning by 6.
Using the push probability from the half point calculator, the probability of Detroit winning by 6 is 4.16%. Using those odds, the expectation of leaving the middle open would be
+0.15%. Of course we would like a number bigger than this. But does the idea sound logical to you? Thanks.Comment -
I'm getting a different result than you.
Risk 1 unit at +108.
Risk 2.08/2.12 ≈ 0.9811 units at +112.
- Win 1.08 - 0.9811 = 0.09887 units with probability 1-4.16% ≈ 95.84%.
- Lose 1.9811 units with probability 4.16%.
This yields an expectation of 95.84%*0.09887-4.16%*1.9811 ≈ 0.01234 units or 0.01234/1.9811 ≈ 0.6229%.
That said, this is a pretty thin expectation and probably only a shade better than the margin of error. As such I'd be sure to tread cautiously.Comment