I was looking at this prop and noticed the NHL website has pretty good stats and include score 1st and win and scored on 1st and win %. I was wondering how to price these using this data (if it was possible). I came up with the the concept of finding two teams playing each other that had a high score1stwin % and a low scoredon1stwin %. It seems logical. If either team scores 1st then they have a good chance of going on to win the game and me my bet. (Perhaps I will look into this on a game by game basis to confirm).
Anyways I took a teams loss rate when scored on 1st and averaged it with their opponents scored1st and win %, then did the same for their opponent then averaged both. Some of the props landed smack in the middle of the juice and others gave apparent advantage plays on the chalk side. Thoughts?
Anyways I took a teams loss rate when scored on 1st and averaged it with their opponents scored1st and win %, then did the same for their opponent then averaged both. Some of the props landed smack in the middle of the juice and others gave apparent advantage plays on the chalk side. Thoughts?
