My best play for Super Bowl props

[Justin7]

My best play:

Total FGs under 3.5 -175 (now about 180-190)

The NFL averages 3.1 FGs/game. If all teams were the same, -167 would be a fair line for this. All teams are NOT teh same.

New England has kicked 25 Field Goals in 18 games. This is a few lower than normal. This is caused by 1. New England going for it on 4th down more than most teams - their TD/FG ratio is about 3.5 to 1 (compared to 64/36 for most teams); and 2. New England's "slow the game" approach means most games have only 10-11 possessions per team, instead of 12-13. 3. New England's defense dives up fewer FGs (and TDS) than other teams - just 18 in 18 games.

On another note, the Giants have 29 FGs in 19 games - slightly below the mean.

My numbers suggest that 2.55 is the expected number of FGs, not 3.1. This makes the fair price on the under 3.5 FGs about -300.

Don't go crazy betting it though. It's just one play, and will still lose about 25% of the time.

[SBR Lou]

Looks solid. I don't expect there to be many field goals, but I do think one that does land will be over 44.5.

[babaoriley]

Well played, Justin. I placed 3.4 to win 2 units myself and it was easy money.

Second biggest hit was a cross sport parlay:
Tayshaun Prince +7.5 P+R
Brady Completions

Also hit the "NO Score in 1st 5:30" and Giants more penalty yards than the Pats (by 1 f'in yard)...

very good call bro...

[VBOMBER]

Thanks Justin. Your logic and research made complete sense to me and ended up being the only prop I played. You must have hit nice with the Giants and under coming in as well, CONGRATS!!!

[Justin7]

Actually, I got crushed by the Giants winning. I had a large position on NE -400 ML. Despite that (which was my biggest bet of the weekend), I made a small profit on the weekend.

Props are easy money. If you spend the time to analyze them intelligently, and bet lots of them methodically, you WILL WIN.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Nice call on the FG prop and congrats, there were several punts from around the 40 yard line, both teams just couldn't get that one extra 1st down to get a reasonable FG attempt.

A prop that I tried (and failed) was the over for 10 penalties (combined) in the game at +110. I figured after 2 weeks off, there'd be a few rusty offensive linesmen who would move early, I figured the Giants defense would have to be extra aggressive with the Pats receivers, probably good for a few defensive holding/interference penalties, plus the usual offensive linesmen holding calls - it seemed just too easy for me to pass up.

What happened was on the initial Giants drive of 10 minutes there were no penalties. Over the next 40 minutes, there were 10 penalties, the 10th occurring with about 10 minutes left in the game.

For the final 10 minutes, the refs/umps decided both teams played absolutely perfectly without any illegalities, as there were 0 penalties from that point on. Pretty weird, the 1st and last 10 minutes of the game were completely clean (1/3 of the entire game), the middle 40 minutes were sloppy. So say the refs, anyway.