best strategy for a freeplay

[Salamander]

Could anybody explain exactly what arbitrage is, how to use the calculator on this site, and how it is useful in determining how/why to utilize free play?

(Salamander, if you have an even further breakdown of the numbers and/or a situation comparison of ways to use free play and the +/- expectancy, etc., I will definitely shoot you some more points.)

Hey there, the example I gave in post 9 of this thread was just a suggestion I gave the OP if he had freeplays at two books, plus if he has a funded account at Matchbook, but keep in mind he stipulated capital preservation was a very high priority.

There is no need to use an arbitrage calculator that I am aware of. The return of 76.5% in that example is guaranteed minimum even if you can't find a difference in spread/total in game 1 between the 2 books. Obviously the larger a difference you can find for that first game, the higher your average return overall can be, maybe as high as 80%. I suppose you could use the calculator to find out which game you'd be better off trying to middle/side if you have a choice, whether a difference between 3 and 3.5 (football game) between the 2 books is better than a difference between a spread of 9 and 10 between the 2 books.

If you only have a freeplay at one book though and you are limited to +200 dogs and 3 game parlays, and you are not uptight about going through some lengthy losing streaks, then you are probably best off splitting your freeplay into small bets and playing lots of 3 game parlays. If all your parlays are at 6-1 odds, you would expect to get back 75% return for your freeplay in the long run (on average one parlay hits every 8 attempts, betting $10 eight times for an outlay of $80 in freeplays, cashing $60 one time in eight). Of course ALL the winnings will be subject to the book's rollover requirements.

If the arbitrage calcultor helps in using freeplays in some other way, I am not aware of how, probably some sharps here who do know.

(Btw thanks for the offer, no need to send points)

[TheCommish]

Pick 3 games, and make 8 parlays covering every combination of winners. You'll be guaranteed to win on one of the parlays.

If you get 6 to 1 on three team parlays, you would turn your $50 freeplay into $37.50 cash.

If you want to have a greater risk and potentially greater reward, don't use games with -110 lines. go with hockey games and play the money lines. If the dog wins in all 3 games, you'll end up with more cash than the initial freeplay value. If all favs win, you'll have less. A combination of Fav/Dog wins, will net you about the same as if they were -110.

[horsiehung]

i have found arbing is good if you have ALOT of money in the books you plan on arbing, and take into account transfer fees!

[Nookx]

the best strategy for a freeplay is to win.

[thadchr]

Thanks guys. In theory, if 4 team parlays were allowed, would those represent even better EV, or does it start to decline from there? Also, if I wanted to be really ballsy, there is no reason I couldn't bet just one 3-game parlay, correct?

[skrtelfan]

4 team is better but some books wont let you use more than 3.

[Dark Horse]

Pick 3 games, and make 8 parlays covering every combination of winners. You'll be guaranteed to win on one of the parlays.

If you get 6 to 1 on three team parlays, you would turn your $50 freeplay into $37.50 cash.

If you want to have a greater risk and potentially greater reward, don't use games with -110 lines. go with hockey games and play the money lines. If the dog wins in all 3 games, you'll end up with more cash than the initial freeplay value. If all favs win, you'll have less. A combination of Fav/Dog wins, will net you about the same as if they were -110.

That's the way to do it. Depending on the book, it will give you a little over 80% of the fp. Make sure not to include full point lines (that can push); 1/2 pt lines only.

[zemsia54]

i have to place single bet with freeplay? or it doesnt matter? im new on betting and i dont know anything about "parlay" teaser..

[Peregrine Stoop]

i have to place single bet with freeplay? or it doesnt matter? im new on betting and i dont know anything about "parlay" teaser..

everything depends upon the terms and conditions of the sportsbook
most will let you break up your freeplay dollars into smaller amounts

[thadchr]

4 team is better but some books wont let you use more than 3.

So at what point do you hit negative EV then? For some reason I'm thinking/remembering 5...

[skrtelfan]

As long as the individual bets are +EV and the book pays true odds, you never hit -EV.

[horsiehung]

looks like six 3 team parlays is the 'winner' of this thread huh?

[Peregrine Stoop]

looks like six 3 team parlays is the 'winner' of this thread huh?

how 'bout eight 3 team parlays?

[brumbies]

What about 4 teamers instead of 3?

[Peregrine Stoop]

What about 4 teamers instead of 3?

most sportsbooks don't allow more than 3 for freeplay

[Arilou]

These all fall under Completely Missing The Point. You want to get reasonable E.V. from the freeplay without giving away that you know what you're doing; the downside of being considered sharp is far bigger than the upside of a freeplay this small. Pick a parlay and go with it. You can get reasonable prices on sides you like but don't go beyond that.

[brumbies]

most sportsbooks don't allow more than 3 for freeplay

Betjm does.

[Peregrine Stoop]

These all fall under Completely Missing The Point. You want to get reasonable E.V. from the freeplay without giving away that you know what you're doing; the downside of being considered sharp is far bigger than the upside of a freeplay this small. Pick a parlay and go with it. You can get reasonable prices on sides you like but don't go beyond that.

many of us will never be able to hide that we are a sharp, so sacrificing $20 in freeplay ev to appear 'dumb' is, indeed, quite a dumb move.

[bigugly]

I'd rather err on the side of appearing to be square...especially for $20 freeplay.

[sandyboy]

interesting points of view...i like the guy who said 'son't look too sharp'!!lol i couldn't if big dave matthews himself gave me the plays!

[joe blow]

I always use FP's on a 2 team parlay

[Peregrine Stoop]

I'd rather err on the side of appearing to be square...especially for $20 freeplay.

it takes a book about 10 bets to know if you're sharp.
don't pass up the free $$$ along the way

[bigugly]

If books are going to cut sharps off eventually, why do they not get around to it before they inevitably lose a bunch of cash?

[dinaro7]

just bet your best bet get the money to regular money

[Peregrine Stoop]

If books are going to cut sharps off eventually, why do they not get around to it before they inevitably lose a bunch of cash?

what makes you think they don't?

your definition of 'bunch of cash' and theirs might differ dramatically

[thadchr]

Bringing this thread back up, because it especially applies to me now having won a whole bunch of SBR points and trying to utilize them... and the I think the HTT is the most knowledgable place around here.

So first, does anyone know the rules for each of the books that SBR offers freeplays at? Do any allow 4-team (or more) parlays, and do any seriously frown on round-robins? In my case, I think that 1) I don't mind having a book catch me as a "sharp", since I play with other books and since if they really want to ban me from betting there, I no longer have to meet the freeplay rollover requirements ; and 2) This is enough money to me that I'm willing to make the sacrifice, at least for the most part.

Also, as of now, it looks like the SBR store only offers freeplays to 3 books: in order from most to least expensive... BetJam, Sportbet, and Betphoenix (by far the cheapest). From experience, do any/all of these allow free book-to-book transfers; and is there a bunch of hassle if they do? Ultimately, I'm trying to get the majority of money either in my pocket, whilst still "wasting" the least amount of money in doing so, or at 5Dimes if it must be in a book. (Though since 5Dimes doesn't offer freeplays, so it would require a transfer.)

Also,

That's the way to do it. Depending on the book, it will give you a little over 80% of the fp. Make sure not to include full point lines (that can push); 1/2 pt lines only.

I'm not understanding the automatic 80% number, without the book either offering better than 6-to-1 parlay odds, or assuming one isn't simply using round-robins? Perhaps someone could explain?


I guess, as a whole, I'm trying to revisit this question as it relates to my current situation: 5000 points to get the most possible value out of what is currently offered in the SBR book, with the ultimate goal (of course) to have as much automatic money in my pocket as possible, or, if the money can't be "in my pocket" just like that, in my account at 5Dimes. As before, thanks in advance for any advice, and I'll happily offer up some points for a helpful response.

[That Foreign Guy]

Bet a big ML dog with the freeplay and the favourite at 5dimes. Seems simplest to me.

[That Foreign Guy]

If books are going to cut sharps off eventually, why do they not get around to it before they inevitably lose a bunch of cash?

Well run books do. I've been cut off at a book where I am a lifetime loser and a loser on the sport that prompted them to cut me and relatively small sample size.

The lines you take (both their value vs market when you take them and their value vs closing line) tell the book how sharp you are more accurately and quicker than the money you win. Justin has written about BTCL being more accurate predictor than W-L for Pinny to profile players - can't remember if it's here or in Conquering Risk - if you want to read more.

[luvtogamble]

free play rules for bet phoenix ( max is 3 team parlay)
free play rules for bet jamaca (have bet 7 team parlaysa with a free play as they also do not limit the amount you may cash out from a free play.

how I use free plays in football and baskets.

use a 2 or 3 team parlay to start with: example of 2 team parlay 1st selection is team A (can bed facorite or underdog) 2nd selection is team B (has to start after team A game has gone final, and this play is the side which I not not like in this game). if you win the first selection you can hedge the 2nd game (with the side you really like) and guarantee a good win; but everything is about winning the 1st bet. example 2 team parlay will pay with free play of 25 will pay 52. could hedge for $ 25.00 and have a guarantee of 25.00 winner or hedge for $20.00 or even for $50.00 if you really like play.
right now I have 4 different 2 team parlays open with green bay -2 (bought 1/2 point )needing to win sunday for me to win parlay. they range from 10.00 to 20.00 each and played a basketball team in each along with green bay every day since last sunday. for the superbowl I will be betting pitt straight up and hope line moves to +3 -110. also have a 2- 3 team parlays open just needing green bay -2 to win 6 to 1 odds. both of these are for 10.00 each and will pay 60.00 each. I have used 140.00 in free plays to get in this position and if green bay wins free plays will pay me 276.00. not sure how much I will bet on pitt yet but am thinking right now 200.00 straight bet on pitt as like them more. so if I do hedge for 200.00 will win 200.00 if pitt wins and lose the 140.00 in free plays for week which I had made, and if green bay wines the parlays will win 276.00 in cash and lase 220.00 on pitt straight bet.
I always use the free plays in this manner in 2 and 3 team parlay and sometime even 4 teamers for a small always with a last leg of parlay startng after other games are completed. you will lose the 1st bet some times but you should hit at least 50% as it should be your strongest play of day which will be complete before the last game in parlay starts.
just my 2 cents worth.

[LegitBet]

check out an old thread of mine!

[thadchr]

Which old thread LegitBet?

[jane2geo]

Guys, after reading several posts on the subject I think this is the best option.
If you played one $50 best pick straight at –110 and won you net $45.
However, If you wheel the same play as part of a 3 team parlay. ie. Four 12.5 wagers at –110 and that same best pick covered you net $75.

eg. If A plays B, C vs. D, E vs. F
Four parlays at 12.5 each,
Assuming you only play lines with ½ points to avoid a push.
A-C-E
A-C-F
A-D-E
A-D-F

[LegitBet]

Dark horse's response is it. Period.

[horsiehung]

hey legit,
i sent you a PM...basically i'm telling you to win me an ipad with my points!
lmfao!!!!
go get em tiger

[horsiehung]

hey legit read my PM!!!!!!!