Pythagorean exponent - hockey

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  • Waz
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-25-08
    • 262

    #1
    Pythagorean exponent - hockey
    For those of you that use models for the NHL, what exponent do you use to convert the projected final score to a probability? For baseball I use something that takes into account the run environment for that particular game, but I'm not sure that will work for hockey.
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    Do you have a database? If yes, I could give you some suggestions on how to develop one.
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    • Pokerjoe
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-17-09
      • 704

      #3
      Did you google it, Waz? I did once and came up with a site where a guy had done a lot of math on it. I may have even posted a link here.
      Comment
      • Pokerjoe
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 04-17-09
        • 704

        #4


        Pretty good starting place.
        Comment
        • Salmon Steak
          SBR MVP
          • 03-05-10
          • 2110

          #5
          Originally posted by Pokerjoe
          That is good stuff PokerJoe. I will look into it in more depth when I get home from the lab.
          Comment
          • jgilmartin
            SBR MVP
            • 03-31-09
            • 1119

            #6
            Great site that is. Part of me kinda wishes you hadn't posted that
            Comment
            • Poogs
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-05-10
              • 116

              #7
              Is that site still relevant now that there are no more ties?
              Comment
              • TomG
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-29-07
                • 500

                #8
                Run a regression just like everything else in life
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                • Waz
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-25-08
                  • 262

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Pokerjoe

                  I actually came across this research when I googled it. It seemed fairly sound, but I was surprised how little I found on the web.
                  Comment
                  • Peregrine Stoop
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-23-09
                    • 869

                    #10
                    I'm surprised how little there is as well. Most Canadians, who are about the only people that watch hockey, are pale nerds stuck in the indoors during 3/4 of the year due to it being too cold. I figured there would be analysis out the Moose's rear on this topic.
                    Comment
                    • Waz
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-25-08
                      • 262

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                      I'm surprised how little there is as well. Most Canadians, who are about the only people that watch hockey, are pale nerds stuck in the indoors during 3/4 of the year due to it being too cold. I figured there would be analysis out the Moose's rear on this topic.
                      I think it might be because there aren't as many stat guys who are also hockey fans. For baseball, it seems like everyone loves statistics and analyzing everything you can think of. For hockey, I think people fall into the mentality that stats are not as important, and it's about who can beat the piss out of there opponent and who can outskate who.
                      Comment
                      • Peregrine Stoop
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-23-09
                        • 869

                        #12
                        baseball also breaks down into a series of nearly independent trials, while other team sports would require much more difficult stat usage
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                        • Waz
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-25-08
                          • 262

                          #13
                          This is very true.
                          Comment
                          • Waz
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-25-08
                            • 262

                            #14
                            Another issue I am having involves totals. If I put an average total of 5.87 on a game, and the posted total line for under 6 is -115. How can I figure out what the probability of the game going over 5.5? I started to use Poisson, but realized it won't work because certain games cannot land on 6 due to a 3-3 tie that forces an extra goal in overtime and making the total 7. How can I adjust for this in calculating the probability?
                            Comment
                            • jetsjets1028
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-10-10
                              • 1234

                              #15
                              here we go bruins ere we go
                              Comment
                              • Pokerjoe
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-17-09
                                • 704

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jgilmartin
                                Great site that is. Part of me kinda wishes you hadn't posted that
                                Well, it was already public. But I know what you mean.

                                My rule is basically, if it's out there, I'll talk about it here. But if it's mine alone, I keep it to myself. Fine line we draw sometimes.
                                Comment
                                • Pokerjoe
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 04-17-09
                                  • 704

                                  #17
                                  For example--and not to be a dick--I'm not answering Waz's Q about totals, LOL.
                                  Comment
                                  • Pokerjoe
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 04-17-09
                                    • 704

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                                    baseball also breaks down into a series of nearly independent trials, while other team sports would require much more difficult stat usage
                                    Independent trials by independent operators at that. Nothing breaks down for stats like baseball.
                                    Comment
                                    • jgilmartin
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-31-09
                                      • 1119

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Pokerjoe

                                      Well, it was already public. But I know what you mean.

                                      My rule is basically, if it's out there, I'll talk about it here. But if it's mine alone, I keep it to myself. Fine line we draw sometimes.
                                      Yep, that is a sensible approach.
                                      Comment
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