If you've got a reasonably accurate method of calculating points scored and conceded in the NFL and NBA, what method would you use to derive the fair odds for a given spread?
I understand that you can't use Poisson because the multiple points are scored in a scoring play. Plus they're not really independent because a scoring event has an effect on future scoring events, particularly in a lower scoring sport as teams would potentially change strategy after a scoring event.
So what mathematical method can be used to determine a fair spread and fair odds for a spread, if you had the estimated scoring and conceding averages for each team in a given matchup?
This may be a silly question as I normally bet Soccer, using Poisson distributions, and I'm not as aware of NFL/NBA handicapping methods so I am trying to learn here.
Any info would be much appreciated.
I understand that you can't use Poisson because the multiple points are scored in a scoring play. Plus they're not really independent because a scoring event has an effect on future scoring events, particularly in a lower scoring sport as teams would potentially change strategy after a scoring event.
So what mathematical method can be used to determine a fair spread and fair odds for a spread, if you had the estimated scoring and conceding averages for each team in a given matchup?
This may be a silly question as I normally bet Soccer, using Poisson distributions, and I'm not as aware of NFL/NBA handicapping methods so I am trying to learn here.
Any info would be much appreciated.
