NBA Power Rankings

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  • neila
    SBR High Roller
    • 07-08-10
    • 106

    #1
    NBA Power Rankings
    I have a question concerning Power Rankings for those of you who do simulations for NBA. Basically, do you use some sort of Power Ranking in your model? The problem I am having is in direct comparison of teams playing out of division. Teams playing out of division only play each other a couple of times a year, so direct comparisons becomes problematic. You have the ongoing problem of not enough recent data and long term past data being irrelevant. For example, if team A only plays team B twice a year, I have to incorportate ten years of data to get twenty games of head to head competition. And, what happened ten years ago is probably not reflective of the two teams today.
    Just wondering if Power Rankings would be beneficial here. Any thoughts, comments?
  • Indecent
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-08-09
    • 758

    #2
    Originally posted by neila
    I have a question concerning Power Rankings for those of you who do simulations for NBA. Basically, do you use some sort of Power Ranking in your model? The problem I am having is in direct comparison of teams playing out of division. Teams playing out of division only play each other a couple of times a year, so direct comparisons becomes problematic. You have the ongoing problem of not enough recent data and long term past data being irrelevant. For example, if team A only plays team B twice a year, I have to incorportate ten years of data to get twenty games of head to head competition. And, what happened ten years ago is probably not reflective of the two teams today.
    Just wondering if Power Rankings would be beneficial here. Any thoughts, comments?
    Honestly, I think you need to drastically re-think your approach.
    Comment
    • neila
      SBR High Roller
      • 07-08-10
      • 106

      #3
      Originally posted by Indecent
      Honestly, I think you need to drastically re-think your approach.
      Actually, this is not an "approach". It is a refinement or rather an adjustment. So, can I can conclude from your answer that you don't consider how NBA teams match up against one another to be of any predictive value?
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        neila,

        inter-team games from a year ago are almost irrelevant. Games from 2-3 years ago are 99% irrelevant.

        Power rankings look at all games a team plays in the current year (or sometimes in the previous year) to determine the overall strength of a team.

        Individual match-ups between teams have some impact, but your approach seems to be minimizing the current year's data, and overestimating prior years' data. A different approach to try might be to emphasize this year's data, and quantify how how the match-ups between the two teams affect the relative power rankings.
        Comment
        • neila
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-08-10
          • 106

          #5
          Thank you both for your responses. The model I have built is very flexible. I can vary the data set from the present back to 1990. That is as far back as my database goes. The problem I'm having is that it is too restrictive, i.e., not enough bets. Backtesting for the past 5 years only yields 71 bets when my line is 6 or more points from the actual spread. Less than 6 is not profitable. I'm looking for ways to open it up without sacrificing too much of an edge. Ideally, I'd like to get at least that many bets in a season. By the way Justin, I'm enjoying the book.
          Comment
          • Peregrine Stoop
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-23-09
            • 869

            #6
            look into the APBR group
            while SBR is king in many areas, there are some that are publicly a few strides ahead
            Comment
            • neila
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-08-10
              • 106

              #7
              Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
              look into the APBR group
              Thanks P, great site. Much reading there.
              Comment
              • Justin7
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 07-31-06
                • 8577

                #8
                Originally posted by neila
                The problem I'm having is that it is too restrictive, i.e., not enough bets. Backtesting for the past 5 years only yields 71 bets when my line is 6 or more points from the actual spread. Less than 6 is not profitable. I'm looking for ways to open it up without sacrificing too much of an edge. Ideally, I'd like to get at least that many bets in a season. By the way Justin, I'm enjoying the book.
                This is a common problem. Don't get greedy. If you find 14 good bets in NBA each year that hit 60%, and you do the same for 4 other sports, your bankroll starts growing without a lot of work.
                Comment
                • pat venditto
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-07-07
                  • 14347

                  #9
                  Power rankings is whoreshit. Or can it really be useful?
                  Comment
                  • Wrecktangle
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-01-09
                    • 1524

                    #10
                    I'll take the "or"
                    Comment
                    • Wrecktangle
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-01-09
                      • 1524

                      #11
                      neila, try a few differing sizes of "look-back" games and watch how your mean squared error (MSE) changes. Take the one that minimizes the MSE. Make sure you have at least two seasons in your in-sample trial.
                      Comment
                      • aleem15
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 08-27-10
                        • 43

                        #12
                        Personally never looked at power rankings but going to look into it a little more.
                        Comment
                        • neila
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-08-10
                          • 106

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Wrecktangle
                          neila, try a few differing sizes of "look-back" games and watch how your mean squared error (MSE) changes. Take the one that minimizes the MSE. Make sure you have at least two seasons in your in-sample trial.
                          Thanks W, I just checked that formula and I believe I can easily incorporate that into my model. I'm already monitoring how closely the pointspreads I'm generating are to the actual outcomes of the games and of course, how they compare to the books lines.

                          This model is becoming a monster. It is churning out all this information and now I have to learn to interpret what it is telling me. My next big assignment is to refine my backtesting procedures so I can have the program step through the variables and find the better parameters all the while being careful not to "fit" the model to any particular data set. I may have to start feeding this thing.
                          Comment
                          • Wrecktangle
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-01-09
                            • 1524

                            #14
                            neila, another thing to try: use Mean Absolute Error rather than squared error. Depending on the technique used, MAE may turn up better results.
                            Comment
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