How can Math help in Sports Betting?

**Extra Innings** · 08-26-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Sorry maybe a newbie question.

But I'm wondering, how can being good with math help you in sports betting? Like what aspects of math are used in what aspects of sports betting? Basically, how is math used in sports betting?

And you could talk any level of math you want. I just want to see where it might be useful in sports betting.

Not important at all

**ssk13809** · 08-26-10, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by Extra Innings

Not important at all

I wasn't really asking if its important or not overall. I was asking more how can it be used in sports betting.

**Extra Innings** · 08-26-10, 01:10 AM

Pick up a fukcin book and get this shit out of here

**ssk13809** · 08-26-10, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by Extra Innings

Pick up a fukcin book and get this shit out of here

Are there any highly recommended books that will give you a strong fundamental understanding of math in relation to sports betting?

**Extra Innings** · 08-26-10, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Are there any highly recommended books that will give you a strong fundamental understanding of math in relation to sports betting?

Gambling is ALL math...to answer your question

**ssk13809** · 08-26-10, 01:37 AM

Nice. Any other books?

And, is there any general and fundamental things you guys can quickly just tell me about math and sports betting?

**Extra Innings** · 08-26-10, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Nice. Any other books?

And, is there any general and fundamental things you guys can quickly just tell me about math and sports betting?

I recommend you filter some of the more popular threads in this sub-forum and read....there is not immediate you can do other than read and get ideas.

**ssk13809** · 08-26-10, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by Extra Innings

I recommend you filter some of the more popular threads in this sub-forum and read....there is not immediate you can do other than read and get ideas.

Can you make a statement like

"The general idea is to __________"

So I just get something foundational to think about math in sports gambling?

**LT Profits** · 08-26-10, 02:12 AM

Without math, how would you know if a play has value or not? You have to be able to convert a Money Line into its implied winning percentage and then compare that number to your expected winning percentage.

**Dark Horse** · 08-26-10, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Can you make a statement like

"The general idea is to __________"

So I just get something foundational to think about math in sports gambling?

The general idea is to start thinking for yourself.

Instead of relying on others to answer every silly question that pops up in your mind.

**ehp6737** · 08-26-10, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

The general idea is to start thinking for yourself.

Instead of relying on others to answer every silly question that pops up in your mind.

**ehp6737** · 08-26-10, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Nice. Any other books?

And, is there any general and fundamental things you guys can quickly just tell me about math and sports betting?

Go read the book he gave you, that should keep you busy for a while.

**wrongturn** · 08-26-10, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Sorry maybe a newbie question.

But I'm wondering, how can being good with math help you in sports betting? Like what aspects of math are used in what aspects of sports betting? Basically, how is math used in sports betting?

And you could talk any level of math you want. I just want to see where it might be useful in sports betting.

You are in right forum for this question. Search threads started by Ganchrow and you are set for a year or two.

**Peeig** · 08-26-10, 09:45 AM

You could also watch Justin's vids to get some of the basics

**Extra Innings** · 08-26-10, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Peeig

You could also watch Justin's vids to get some of the basics

**DukeJohn** · 08-26-10, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Sorry maybe a newbie question.

But I'm wondering, how can being good with math help you in sports betting? Like what aspects of math are used in what aspects of sports betting? Basically, how is math used in sports betting?

And you could talk any level of math you want. I just want to see where it might be useful in sports betting.

If complex mathematics is your thing then the most popular answer for looking into math and sports betting from this forum has been Ganchrow for years now:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/search/Ganchrow/4304027-threads.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

BoL,

**coldhardfacts** · 08-26-10, 11:49 AM

It means EVERYTHING in sports betting. But not the way in which most of the people who post here think it does.

You cannot be a successful sports bettor without analyzing detailed statistical data, translating those results and other factors into an odds/line, and then determining if the posted odds/line offers value vis a vis your calculated price. If you are able to identify value, and then bet only games where you're getting value, you will be a consistent winner.

**MadTiger** · 08-26-10, 11:54 AM

Business transactions (and life, really) are all about value.

If I tell you this cost $100, that doesn't mean shit. If you know that normally this thing sells for $120, then you know that I am offering it at a discount, for whatever reason. If it sells for $80, then I am trying to tear your mouth out, and you should leave it alone.

Similarly, what is the perceived value of the Yankees (Stankees?) tonight? For argument's sake, let's take the Pinnacle line a few moments before first pitch to be the true "value." Let's say we project it to be -150. If we see that the Pinnacle line is -140, or at some other sportsbook, we would jump on it. We only have to pay 140 against 100 for something that is worth 150 against 100. We have found what we perceive to be value. Over time, buying something for less than the value will be profitable. The more accurately you estimate the value, the better.

Math.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 08-26-10, 12:01 PM

amazed at all the helpful responses to one of the worst OPs I have ever read

**Peeig** · 08-26-10, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

amazed at all the helpful responses to one of the worst OPs I have ever read

OP will never do all of this stuff anyway, so its just for gitts and shiggles

**sharpcat** · 08-26-10, 12:54 PM

I guess nobody noticed his other thread yet where he claims to hit 70% of his plays and 90% of his lock plays and is hoping to make a million dollars within 1 year.

I think the first thing he should focus on is to learn to understand why it is highly unlikely to hit anything better than 60% on -110 lines longterm and he likely needs to learn the math behind why a sample of 50 games is not capable of accurately predicting a long term win percentage.

**roasthawg** · 08-26-10, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Without math, how would you know if a play has value or not? You have to be able to convert a Money Line into its implied winning percentage and then compare that number to your expected winning percentage.

Here's a great answer right here... make sure you understand this before you go any further.

**thebestthereis** · 08-26-10, 01:43 PM

Rule #1, learn money management which you need math for. After you learn that, learn it again. I don't care how much math you know if you cannot manage your bankroll the smartest statistical analyst on the planet will go broke faster than he or she learned to add. Miyagi is all wise and all knowing. Rule #2 is to first learn Rule #1.

**frankbettor** · 08-27-10, 12:06 AM

I couldn't have said it better myself extrainnings. Math is the only thing in betting sports. I don't even pick up the sports page anymore. I'm sure there are a few of you at this stage in the game. And I hate espn. I study numbers only.

**ssk13809** · 08-27-10, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by DukeJohn

If complex mathematics is your thing then the most popular answer for looking into math and sports betting from this forum has been Ganchrow for years now:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/search/Ganchrow/4304027-threads.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

BoL,

Yeah no matches...

**ssk13809** · 08-27-10, 12:31 AM

But thanks for the advice everyone. And FYI, I am already very talented with math. But just was looking to see how its directly used in sports betting.

So read some books, and search threads started by Ganchrow? Well 1 guy tried that, it didn't work...

**DukeJohn** · 08-27-10, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by ssk13809

Yeah no matches...

hmm... let's try again:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/search/Ganchrow/4312209-threads.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**DukeJohn** · 08-27-10, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by DukeJohn

hmm... let's try again:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/search/Gan...9-threads.html

This new link is working right now, however it will probably only for a little while... If the link stops working properly then just do a search for his name. Then do an advanced search using threads started by him.

Enjoy,

**Goldman** · 08-27-10, 08:39 AM

If you're doing US sports you must be good at math

**Peeig** · 08-27-10, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Rule #1, learn money management which you need math for. After you learn that, learn it again. I don't care how much math you know if you cannot manage your bankroll the smartest statistical analyst on the planet will go broke faster than he or she learned to add. Miyagi is all wise and all knowing. Rule #2 is to first learn Rule #1.

All the money management in the world isn't gonna help if you can't find an edge

**solobass** · 08-27-10, 10:24 AM

Everyone has their own style. For me it is all about math. For example you hear me talk about Pythagorean expectation. I used several distributions to come up with a more accurate sliding scale exponent that gives me a much more accurate picture than using a singular exponent. Also something as simple as running a standard deviation on points/runs scored is enormously helpful because consistent offense is the sports gamblers friend.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 08-27-10, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by Peeig

All the money management in the world isn't gonna help if you can't find an edge

eventually, he will find the edge of a cliff to jump off of

**Pokerjoe** · 08-27-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

I guess nobody noticed his other thread yet where he claims to hit 70% of his plays and 90% of his lock plays and is hoping to make a million dollars within 1 year.

I think the first thing he should focus on is to learn to understand why it is highly unlikely to hit anything better than 60% on -110 lines longterm and he likely needs to learn the math behind why a sample of 50 games is not capable of accurately predicting a long term win percentage.

I hadn't noticed that, and it is funny. NH.

**CrimsonQueen** · 08-27-10, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Peeig

All the money management in the world isn't gonna help if you can't find an edge

Conversely, all the edges in the world won't help you if you don't have proper money management.

Here's some math:

You have a lock that will win 99% of the time, so you bet 100% of your bankroll and you lose all your money in the long run anyway.